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Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
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10 Feb, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Thread on data of #capitolriot charges. This is why the isolation, condemnation and deplatforming of their spiritual and operational head must continue: only small % had ties to organized groups, while the rest only had allegiance to Trump. This is good 1/
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Why? The question remains how relevant to domestic terrorism movement is Trump? Qanon moves on; white supremacy exists; hate never went away. Of course that is true but I don't think helpful. We have a tactical threat: the concern that Trump continues to nurture and recruit. 2/
Yes we have "big picture" issues about race and tolerance and conspiracies but sometimes solving an immediate problem can help with longer term one. Trump's use of terrorism tactics was that problem. And the data shows he was successful at getting individuals radicalized. 3/
Silver lining in this data, confirmed by other news agencies: without Trump, a majority of these people do not have a cause. Continue to arrest, isolate, shame, but this is a solvable problem. Even without impeachment in Senate, treating Trump as loser makes his power less 4/
Anyway, I got a lot of pushback writing this a month ago about Trump as terror leader but am more convinced of it now as data becomes clear and the off-ramping of adherents continues. You want MAGA extremism to end, keep focusing on the top. @theatlantic
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

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More from @juliettekayyem

Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
5 Feb
.@Farah_Pandith, who wrote a book about radicalization, has something to say about the podcast Caliphate today. This isn't just about fact-checking. Every female counterterrorism expert saw what was happening: the selling of a sexy (pun intended) story to the public. 1/
From the PR campaign, to the haunting fear that the reporter has about being physically in danger, to the glamorization of violence, and the caricature of female ISIS members, the whole thing was, in Farah's words, made "glam." 2/
And it worked. Caliphate was to counterterrorism as Serial was to criminal justice issues by bringing a major issue to the forefront through audio storytelling of the life of one man through a believing woman. I am well aware of the irony is this analogy. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
11 Jan
Political commentators are falling into mistake that violent terror threats get less so if some mercy (no impeachment) is shown its leader. There is history of counterterrorism efforts that show otherwise. Only complete isolation, powerlessness, deplatforming, of leader works. 1/
For the next 10 days and beyond, Trump has to be seen as ineffectual, without oxygen, so he can not have second act. No soft exit. It’s horrible to admit, but do not buy into argument that violence is less if we put a brake on gas pedal. They need to be stopped. 2/
But the violence is actually worse if they, and future recruits, view him as strong. They want to back a winner. We prepare for violence but it will be less so in the future with no leadership and if they know their leader can’t help them. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
9 Jan
CAUTIOUSLY HAPPY THREAD: vaccine distribution. I promised I would return to this prediction.

After first full non-holiday week, US is getting closer to 1 million doses a day (865K Fri, up from @700K Th) and we may be hitting inflection point.
1/
Quick thoughts: we are unlikely to have a supply problem by Feb with Biden announcement (he is not changing FDA standards, only distribution timing of first vaccine because of reliance on supply chain per @ScottGottliebMD good idea) and other vaccines (johnson and johnson). 2/
We need leeway on allocation decisions; move stuff faster. Don't give up on allocations, but some flexibility. States are starting to do this. Go to groupings first, if things get tied up, move quickly to next allocation. These are things that are learned by implemention. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
3 Jan
On vaccination distribution, time is of the essence but I can’t urge enough that data after one non holiday week will be very telling about what actually needs to be fixed. We don’t want to screw up the science with wrong fix.
Jan 4-11th.
Then: Jan 20, competency.
See ⬇️ 1/
Some wild proposals being mentioned because this is a “disaster” there are “no plans” etc. and if you’ve been through this before you know systems take time and resources. I’m not defending anyone. Trump lied about 20 M. Eyes on prize. Sweeping assessments lead to bad “fixes.” 2/
So I urge patience before we tinker with science or medicine or allocation decisions. From my perch, money and personnel and maybe some distribution of locales (everyone thinks big vaccination sites, but small and more also works) This is great analogy from @ZoeMcLaren 3/3
Read 4 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
28 Dec 20
I appreciate the sentiment this reflects. I (of all people) also appreciate that we draw conclusions about Arabs and Muslims as well. So, I want to start there. But there is a reason in this very unique case why (some of us) use words like suicide bomber but not terrorist. 1/
I'm not here to defend analysis, I'm thick skinned, simply to explain thinking. As we all know, terrorism is a motivational crime, violence for political or ideological impact. A lot of things can elicit terror, seem "terrorist" like, but not be that 2/
Why does it matter? The long game. I too am worried about white radical terrorism in US. Trump condones it as well by using tactic known as #stochasticterrorism to incite without directing. More on my thoughts @markfollman @motherjones 3/
motherjones.com/politics/2020/…
Read 6 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
22 Dec 20
WHEN?!?! A THREAD. The timeframe for vaccinations has varied. Fauci noted general population "most likely start" in April. Anything sooner you hear from folks is based on assumptions that are risky. End of Aug for majority is also a really fair timeframe.
1/
Let's start with the numbers. Indignation at pandemic skeptics who are getting the vaccine now is totally legitimate. But as I've been urging, success is in bulk measurements: over 550K have been vaccinated so far in US. And it's rolling. 2/
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This pace will pick up significantly. Challenges in distribution system are getting addressed daily (disclosure, again: I advise public and private entities on this part, but do not work directly with any manufacturers). This isn't exactly a chain of command venture but more 3/
Read 11 tweets

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