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10 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
CALIFORNIA. Update.

Counties. Covid-19 deaths per M population (minimum 100 deaths):

Imperial 3,151
Los Angeles 1,817
Stanislaus 1,590
Tulare 1,419
Riverside 1,393
Merced 1,336
Fresno 1,265
San Joaquin 1,234
Madera 1,199
Kings 1,169
Orange 1,072

continues...
California. Counties, cont'd

San Bernardino 1,006
Shasta 911
Sacramento 877
San Diego 853
Santa Clara 813
Ventura 803
Santa Barbara 779
Yolo 771
Kern 740
Marin 697
Monterey 668
Butte 640
Alameda 631
San Luis Obispo 627
Santa Cruz 583
San Mateo 581

continues...
California. Counties, cont'd

Sonoma 554
Placer 549
Contra Costa 499
San Francisco 392
Solano 313.

These 32 counties, with at least 100 deaths per county, account for 98% of recorded Covid-19 mortality in the pandemic to date.

Continues...
California Counties, cont'd.

New since last update:

Imperial >3,000/M
Madera, Orange, San Bernadino >1,000/M

Sutter (950/M) & San Benito (926/M) have high deaths per M, but are not on the list because they have fewer than 100 C-19 deaths reported to date.

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More from @AndrewNoymer

Andrew Noymer Profile picture
13 Dec 20
Remember this 👇🏻 chart?

I received request for a breakdown by age groups.

I forget who it was; sorry.

Well, ask and ye shall (sometimes) receive.

*THREAD*: All-cause mortality, weeks 1 thru 35 (early Sept). 2015–20, BY AGE, w/trend-line and 95% prediction interval.
Here is ages 0–24 (L) and 25–44 (R).

Deaths and 95% prediction interval. Input data from @NCHStats.
Here is ages 45–64 (L) and 65–74 (R).

Deaths and 95% prediction interval. Input data from @NCHStats.
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Noymer Profile picture
19 Oct 20
#minimodel (👇🏻) guesstimate of Covid-19 infection fatality rate is less than 0.3%, which is in the same ballpark as IFR of flu (0.1%, also an estimate).

In this THREAD, I will explain how this fact has been misconstrued/misused to mean Covid-19 pandemic is a nothingburger.
I'm thinking here of crowd jumping up+down "see! the IFR is same as flu!!!".

Covid-19 IFR is indeed around that of flu. I don't say "low", since everything relative. IFRs are in the same ballpark.

But C-19 will kill far more people in the same time period than flu.

continues
We already see Covid-19 has killed 225,000 in USA, far more than flu. Comparing IFRs is not the right move here (and has never been — see the breakdown of the #minimodel).

Despite similar IFRs, C-19 will kill far more people than flu, because it will infect far more.

continues
Read 9 tweets
Andrew Noymer Profile picture
19 Oct 20
Friends, as you know I've advocated #masks for long time. Certainly longer thn @CDCgov & people at my... place of employment.

Qualitatively, I believe they work. How much they protect is hard to quantify, however.

Today, saw something thought provoking in this vein.

continues:
Anti-masker in inbox wondered what we say in a year, when (in his words/imagination of future), consensus changes against masks.

If can't quantify good masks do, how we know benefit isn't marginal?

Valid question, but #PrecautionaryPrinciple says not to play no-mask roulette.
I was here when they said it was nothing.

~ when... it was no worse than flu.

~ when... it would "only" kill 100,000.

The latest is that "masks won't stop it". It *is* hard to quantify #mask effect — but, I'm sorry but I can't endorse that.

I'm just not that kind of asshole.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Noymer Profile picture
25 Sep 20
Let's talk about emerging C-19 narrative of "shield sensitive groups". Thread will be USA-centric; I live in US of A, so.

This is C-19 strategy emphasizing nursing homes/elderly, & a euphemism for everyone else to "[keep calm and] carry on".

It won't work. Especially in USA.
Why won't it work?

Where I live, Calif, 26% of C-19 mortality has been in people younger than 65, and 7% has been in people 18–49.

C-19 mortality in CA has been disproportionately felt by the Latinx population and elsewhere in the USA, Blacks have been in a similar position.
continued

The C-19 pandemic is overlaid on the United States' dilapidated public health infrastructure and its major health inequalities, particularly by race.

We can't just take the Swedish experience (which, on Twitter, is more fantasy than reality anyways), and copy+paste.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Noymer Profile picture
21 Sep 20
So... going off @Worldometers data, the COVID-19 deaths per million population (as of today) is 591 in Italy, and 620 in Florida.

In March, I was worried about the impending mortality impact of COVID-19 in the US of A.

And no place worried me more than Florida...

1/
2/
No place worried me more than Florida because of its famously old population structure. (For my friends overseas who don't pay attention to US demographics, many people from all over the USA move to Florida in their retirement, because of its mild winters.)
3/
In March, spoke to @mrMattSimon at length abt how pandemic would play out, USA; mortality was one of my chief concerns.

At some point in the interview, I said something to the effect that Florida would be the "uber-Italy"; again, thinking about its population age structure.
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Noymer Profile picture
23 Aug 20
Convalescent serum: the new hydroxychloroquine.
Convalescent serum has a long and successful history in fighting disease.

But that doesn't mean that it will necessarily succeed for *any* disease.

It needs to be studied better before make any all-in bets.
The reasons convalescent serum may work are many, but it boils down to this: it has worked for other diseases, ex. measles [before the vaccine].

But there are also reasons why it might NOT work. Many, in fact.

So we need to *study* it.
Read 7 tweets

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