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Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch

10 Feb

The Superbowl TV ratings are looking like they were a disaster for the NFL.

Total viewers, which will be revised, were the lowest since the Colts beat the Bears in 2007. They were also the first time they were under 100 million viewers since 2009.

This includes streaming

(1/5)

It gets worse. The % of TVs that tuned in were a 51-year low!

Everyone is stuck at home and has nothing else to do on a Sunday night ... a night where it was freezing and snowed in most of the northern half of the country.

Still they could not turn on the game.

(2/5)

The key demographic of 18 to 49 year old is in free-fall!

Down more than 1/3 from a decade ago.

Not good for the long-term health of the game and why it looks like the NFL is becoming the sport of old people. Like baseball!

(Are they watching the Champions League?)

(3/5)

Read 6 tweets

Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch

1 Feb

A Sunday night rant ...

I’m getting the feeling the COVID deniers are now Reddit Revolter deniers.

Some are even arguing that WSB is a front for the hedge funds to play their games, that maybe retail does not really exist.

And it was just the flu.

(1/4)

It’s a form of the Stockholm syndrome... where hostage have sympathy for their captors.

The Wall Street hostages are so sure their "Masters of the Universe" are orchestrating everything and will walk away the winner all the time, they will stand on their head to see it.

(2/4).

Fact is we might be seeing the greatest run of winning trades in Wall Street history, leaving wreckage of what was greatness in its wake.

Retail wins on

* meme stocks, "Masters" lose
* WFH stocks that funds missed
* Tesla
* Airlines and embarrassed Buffett along the way

(3/4)

Read 4 tweets

Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch

29 Jan

Thread to explain the mkt

Q: Why is GameStop still trading at $350 when everyone that understands "fundamentals" think this is a $5 dollar stocks?

A: The only "fundamental" that matters, 62M shs short with 50M share float. It is physical impossible to cover this short.

(1/6)

This squeeze does not stop until this short is covered

I would GUESS that is when it gets below 25M shares, or 50% of float, and probably much less than that.

Viewed this way, what happened this week it is not that irrational.

(2/6)

Q2: Why is this driving the entire stock market down?

A2: Because the "masters of the universe" are not surrendering their shorts/covering.

So the fear is these shorts will rise so much, leading to losses and inability to meet margin calls. Brokers at risk

(3/6)

Read 6 tweets

Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch

17 Jan

The chart below is Trump's approval rating from January 22, 2017, to today.

It is the average of over 50 polling services into a "trend."

(1/4)

Before last week, 2 things:

First, Trump got 48% of the vote in 2016 and 2020. But he never saw an approval rating of 48%.

No other president failed to achieve his election % in approval, and Trump failed to achieve it twice.

This is often cited as evidence of bias.

(2/4)

Second, the range of Trump's approval was 11%, 5% using +/1 std dev (shaded).

This is far and away the tightest ever. Everyone's opinion about Trump was set and no daily "hyperventilation" of whatever Trump did, or did not do, meaningfully changed anyone's opinion.

(3/4)

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Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch

2 Jan

I've been tweeting that all the stimulus will create inflation. I want to make something clear.

I'm in favor of the stimulus to help the less fortunate, and especially those that lost their jobs via lockdowns and government restrictions.

(1/4)

I've likened it to the takings clause in the constitution. If they Govt "takes" something from you (your house to build a hwy), they have to pay you fair value. Yes, lockdowns are for a good clause (so is the new hwy) but they cannot "take" it from you without FV payment.

(2/4)

But "takings" come with a cost, the new hwy displaces families and destroys neighborhoods. So do lockdowns.

The necessary stimulus is coming with a cost … more inflation. This will raise interest rates and cause problems in the stock market.

(3/4)

Read 4 tweets

Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch

30 Dec 20

What Does Inflation Mean?

After going almost a generation without meaningful inflation, many believe it has been vanquished. Aging demographics, globalization, and advancing technology have held prices down. Will this remain true in 2021?

(1/5)

In the late 60s, many believed stocks were the perfect hedge against inflation. This line of thinking argued companies could raise prices along with costs, providing a barrier from inflation. This thinking is again present today. But this did not hold true in the 70s.

(2/5)

Below is the inflation-adjusted SPX (orange) and DJIA (blue) from 1958 to 1995.

From the 1968 peak to the 1982 low, the S&P 500 lost 65% of its inflation-adjusted value. It was not until 1993 that the inflation-adjusted SPX exceeded its 1968 peak! 1995 for the DJIA!

(3/5)

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