A Sunday night rant ...

I’m getting the feeling the COVID deniers are now Reddit Revolter deniers.

Some are even arguing that WSB is a front for the hedge funds to play their games, that maybe retail does not really exist.

And it was just the flu.

(1/4)
It’s a form of the Stockholm syndrome... where hostage have sympathy for their captors.

The Wall Street hostages are so sure their "Masters of the Universe" are orchestrating everything and will walk away the winner all the time, they will stand on their head to see it.

(2/4).
Fact is we might be seeing the greatest run of winning trades in Wall Street history, leaving wreckage of what was greatness in its wake.

Retail wins on

* meme stocks, "Masters" lose
* WFH stocks that funds missed
* Tesla
* Airlines and embarrassed Buffett along the way

(3/4)
Wall Street is lost, populated by broken sheep, not free-market capitalist.

They think greatness is with those that have run a broken system for decades. It might be with those that are ending that system and winning.

They also probably think Tom Brady is over-rated

(4/4)

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More from @biancoresearch

29 Jan
Thread to explain the mkt

Q: Why is GameStop still trading at $350 when everyone that understands "fundamentals" think this is a $5 dollar stocks?

A: The only "fundamental" that matters, 62M shs short with 50M share float. It is physical impossible to cover this short.

(1/6) Image
This squeeze does not stop until this short is covered

I would GUESS that is when it gets below 25M shares, or 50% of float, and probably much less than that.

Viewed this way, what happened this week it is not that irrational.

(2/6)
Q2: Why is this driving the entire stock market down?

A2: Because the "masters of the universe" are not surrendering their shorts/covering.

So the fear is these shorts will rise so much, leading to losses and inability to meet margin calls. Brokers at risk

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
17 Jan
The chart below is Trump's approval rating from January 22, 2017, to today.

It is the average of over 50 polling services into a "trend."

(1/4)
Before last week, 2 things:

First, Trump got 48% of the vote in 2016 and 2020. But he never saw an approval rating of 48%.

No other president failed to achieve his election % in approval, and Trump failed to achieve it twice.

This is often cited as evidence of bias.

(2/4)
Second, the range of Trump's approval was 11%, 5% using +/1 std dev (shaded).

This is far and away the tightest ever. Everyone's opinion about Trump was set and no daily "hyperventilation" of whatever Trump did, or did not do, meaningfully changed anyone's opinion.

(3/4)
Read 5 tweets
2 Jan
I've been tweeting that all the stimulus will create inflation. I want to make something clear.

I'm in favor of the stimulus to help the less fortunate, and especially those that lost their jobs via lockdowns and government restrictions.

(1/4)
I've likened it to the takings clause in the constitution. If they Govt "takes" something from you (your house to build a hwy), they have to pay you fair value. Yes, lockdowns are for a good clause (so is the new hwy) but they cannot "take" it from you without FV payment.

(2/4)
But "takings" come with a cost, the new hwy displaces families and destroys neighborhoods. So do lockdowns.

The necessary stimulus is coming with a cost … more inflation. This will raise interest rates and cause problems in the stock market.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
30 Dec 20
What Does Inflation Mean?

After going almost a generation without meaningful inflation, many believe it has been vanquished. Aging demographics, globalization, and advancing technology have held prices down. Will this remain true in 2021?

(1/5)
In the late 60s, many believed stocks were the perfect hedge against inflation. This line of thinking argued companies could raise prices along with costs, providing a barrier from inflation. This thinking is again present today. But this did not hold true in the 70s.

(2/5)
Below is the inflation-adjusted SPX (orange) and DJIA (blue) from 1958 to 1995.

From the 1968 peak to the 1982 low, the S&P 500 lost 65% of its inflation-adjusted value. It was not until 1993 that the inflation-adjusted SPX exceeded its 1968 peak! 1995 for the DJIA!

(3/5)
Read 5 tweets
29 Dec 20
CRB Raw Industrial Spot up 25% since April.

It is made up of largely non-fut traded commods, so should not be subject to speculative money flows

Hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, and rubber.

(1/6)
Typically this is good coincident indciator with interest rates. But now is diverging in a big way.

(2/6)
What does rising raw industrials mean? The simplest answer is NOMINAL economic growth is accelerating.

Nom Growth = Real Growth Plus Inflation

The last 25 yrs have seen nominal growth led by an increase in the real growth. These have become interchangeable terms to many.

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
23 Nov 20
Earlier, I posted this on Twitter and, predictably, all the conversation is about Mnuchin at 9%. Why?

(1/7)
Remember that the limit for an account is $850. So, if you are dead sure that Mnuchin will not be the TreasSec on March 1, then deposit $850 and in an account and get an $80 profit on March 1.

This is not why people bet on @PredictIt. They want to speculate!

(2/7)
So, some bettors think it makes more sense to buy Mnuchin at 9% and "hope" the Trump lawsuits or something else come along and pops this contract to 18%. Double your money!!

(3/7)
Read 7 tweets

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