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Peter Yang

14 Feb, 6 tweets, 2 min read

📈 Perez Framework for Bitcoin and NFTs

Carlota Perez broke down past technology cycles into 2 phases and 4 steps:

1. Installation phase
a) Irruption
b) Frenzy

2. Deployment phase
c) Synergy
d) Maturity

A quick look at how this framework could apply bitcoin and NFTs 👇

1/ The phases/steps are:

1. Installation phase

a) Irruption: Funding for new tech and infra

b) Frenzy: Speculation leads to asset bubbles.

2. Deployment phase

c) Synergy: Inequality leads to crash + regulation of the financial sector.

d) Maturity: Tech is broadly adopted.

2/ What's interesting is that there has always been a crash between the installation and deployment phases in past tech waves.

Let's look at how this could apply to Bitcoin and NFTs...

3/ Bitcoin

Bitcoin's installation phase was arguably in 2017 when retail speculators dominated the market before the price crashed.

It could now be entering the deployment phase as a wave of companies and governments enter bitcoin positions.

4/ NFTs

I think NFTs are entering the frenzy step of the installation phase right now (e.g., socks selling for $35K).

It'll be interesting to see if NFT prices will crash before growing again.

@patrickxrivera

5/ In the context of Carlota's framework, speculation is a natural step of the lifecycle of a new technology.

Speculation leads to asset bubbles but also interest from builders which drives new tech adoption long-term.

Thanks to @patrickxrivera for sharing this framework.

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