1/ Unit economic for founders thread.

Despite being a founder and a student of the subject, I missed out on a key point growing up.

Length of relationship with your customers, order frequency, product usage and utility matter.

They didn't teach me this in business school.
2/ Structured right, products used daily vs weekly vs monthly vs yearly lead to different profitability and scalability paths.

Quiz. Which business would you pick?

a) Enterprise software - US$ 250k one time license
b) Enterprise software - US$ 30k/month recurring subscription
3/ Sound's obvious? Which one did you pick?

Twice in my life I picked A. They were both great businesses, but they didn't compare to B. Especially in the long run.

Looking back, with hindsight, I know I should have picked B.

Why?
4/ Bringing in customers is hard.

When those customers leave after a few orders, your investment in that relationship is written off.

But it is not just about the relationship or investment. It is also about scale.

What are the easiest ways to scale a business?
5/ Think about it?

a) Get more customers - acquire
b) Get existing customers to order again - retain
c) Increase order size - up sell
d) Increase order frequency - cross sell / new use case
e) Get existing customers to get you new customers - referral

(b) to (e) are free.
6/ This links back to Life time value (LTV) of a customer. LTV is a function of:

a) Length of relationship
b) Order frequency
c) Order Size
d) Contribution Margin
e) Retention rates

Crude approximation but it makes the point we want to make. Increase value by increasing these.
7/ How much of a difference can it make?

It takes 8 to 12 years to get a business to a point where it pays off for the founders. Given a choice of four different businesses which one would you pick?

a) FTC
b) Maya
c) Produce A
d) Product B
8/ (c) and (d) above are the same business. With one crucial difference.

(c) turns off customers because it delivers late with hit or miss product quality and has a terrible customer experience.

(d) is fanatical about customer service and experience.

Compare that with (a), (b)
9/ (a) has the highest price point, highest margins and a respectable LTV/CAC ratio but can only sell its product once or twice to customers.

In the long run it loses out to (d). If LTV was representative of franchise value, (d) would be 6 times more valuable than (a)
10/ It would take you the same time to build both businesses. The same time to get to an exit.

(d) would be more operationally complex because of logistic, so perhaps more headaches. Also more points of failure.

But financially speaking, which one would you rather build?
11/ They didn't teach this at business school. 20 years to pick up this lesson in real life. I wish someone sat me down and explained this 30 years ago.

Order frequency and customer shelf life matters. Pick ideas where customers buy more frequently over ideas where they buy once
12/ From @HabibUniversity Tech Management and Entrepreneurship course (MGMT 301), lecture four, unit economics for founders and building businesses that scale.

Full lecture here

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More from @rebootdude

13 Feb
1/ Day 12 T minus 15. Crash and burn.

The good news. Winter gear is off. Only the beanie remains. Non-Sharia compliant gear is on.

The bad news. Crashed and burned at 12.1k mark. Couldn't finish 15k.

The good news. Shaved 3 minutes off 10k time from last week. SB now @ 1:15:53
2/ In training, you take whatever you can get, whenever you can get it.

I was lucky today. Two pacers to help stay within the pacing zone. Will shave another 15 seconds per km off when I switch to adizero from my current trainers.
3/ Would have taken the day off tomorrow if I had knocked out the 15k today. Will try again next Saturday.

More good news. Looks like another long run for what promises to be a brilliant Sunday morning.

Training begins when you have nothing left to give.
Read 4 tweets
6 Jan
1/ Recent discussion with a CS undergraduate student about career choices.

The choice between being an employee vs being a founder right out of school.

My view has changed over the year and have sat on both sides of the table. Apparently the answer is not quite simple.
2/ My current view?

If you are interested in being a founder, try your hand at running a business while still in school.

Zero obligations. Minimal chances of triggering a critical reaction. Think of it as an extended internship.

Most likely outcome. Type I Failure.
3/ But priceless in terms of education, self awareness and bragging rights.

If you do fail, less likely to leave a big hole in the ground given the amount of dry powder you started off with.

Your first failure will teach you a great deal about yourself and your choices.
Read 8 tweets
10 Dec 20
1/ Nothing every really goes to waste.

You would be surprised what you could build on foundations of your original failures as a founder.

A few years after Avicena, I came back home to Karachi and started Alchemy, I had a head start.

I already knew the path to starting up.
2/ Our first real success as a new business.

A training engagement that opened many doors in future years.

We had gone to pitch something else to a customer. He didn't want it.

But given my background he asked if I could do a product specific risk training for his team.
3/ A younger pre-Avicena me would have said no. This wasn't the model. This wasn't the way.

The older me said yes. Listen to him. Give the customer what he wants. Take the money and do what he asks.

We did. It required us to change our focus but we were already in the space.
Read 14 tweets
8 Dec 20
1/ A thread on my first startup, venture number one. With pit stops in NYC, LA, DC, Dubai & Karachi.

Avicena. Mar '99. May '01. E-Education.

Analyst and Associate training programs for Wall Street. Continuing professional education (CPE) for actuaries and accountants. Image
2/ By the time I landed at @Columbia_Biz I had already been blessed by outstanding teachers. But nothing had prepared me for the hidden rock stars in the program.

My 3 electives that term were International Marketing, Emerging Financial Markets and Continuous Time Finance.
3/ I had exempted out of 3 course to take the 3 electives, was auditing accounting, had Micro and Marketing with my batch.

By March I had started thinking of ways that I could share what I was learning with friends and students back home. Level the playing field, somehow.
Read 20 tweets
10 Oct 20
1/ I had 3 dreams as I grew up.

a) Run the NYC Marathon
b) Write a book
c) Produce a play on Broadway

For a kid who used the G-3 bus to get to Regal chowk for high school and W-18 to get to campus on Bhains colony, these were all moon shots.
2/ I knew they weren't real and it would take more than an alignment of planets to get me to a stage where these would become more than wishful thinking.

But I continued to dream and added more to the list.

Might as well be a traveler of the world, in business class, no less.
3/ The NYC marathon was an evolved version of an earlier dream.

One that involved running track for the national team.

Once I figured that I was too old for that to happen, I accepted a simpler version. I would be happy running a marathon. NYC would do just fine.
Read 21 tweets
9 Oct 20
1/ To my students and friends in the industry.

This is not the first time we have been blind sided. This is not going to be the last time.

This is also not the end. Yes it hurts. Yes you have a right to feel miserable and depressed.

But remember, you are stronger than this.
2/ Stability and continuity of policy has been a national weakness since our very beginning. We are not new to this.

Handling this is programmed into our DNA. We always figure a way out. Takes time but we crack the code or get through to saner voices on the other side.
3/ In the mean time focus on your work, on what you can and do control. Don't waste your breath or time wallowing in self pity or darkness beyond tonight.

Yes it is a lousy hand, but you can't change the cards. Move on.

There is always work to be done. Get it done.
Read 7 tweets

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