1/ To my students and friends in the industry.

This is not the first time we have been blind sided. This is not going to be the last time.

This is also not the end. Yes it hurts. Yes you have a right to feel miserable and depressed.

But remember, you are stronger than this.
2/ Stability and continuity of policy has been a national weakness since our very beginning. We are not new to this.

Handling this is programmed into our DNA. We always figure a way out. Takes time but we crack the code or get through to saner voices on the other side.
3/ In the mean time focus on your work, on what you can and do control. Don't waste your breath or time wallowing in self pity or darkness beyond tonight.

Yes it is a lousy hand, but you can't change the cards. Move on.

There is always work to be done. Get it done.
4/ I am not being an optimist, just a realist.

We have bills to pay, kids to feed, parents to take care of, friends to help cheer up.

This is a regulatory pivot. It sucks but it also opens up new doors for every door it closes.

Look for the new doors, forget the old ones.
5/ You are not powerless.

It may seem as if you have no control, but you do.

The state will do what it always does. You do what you can.

Sometimes it's enough, sometimes it isn't. Every single contribution, no matter how little helps and adds up.
6/ I am not a fan. I never was. I don't think I ever will be.

We fought it the last time, we will fight it again. It took forever. In the end it wasn't us.

Commercial consideration and business always wins in the end. They will win this time too. Just don't hold your breath.
7/ Spread the light. And hope.

Not despair and darkness. Its the most important thing you can do.

If you can't find it inside you right now, look around. Go for a walk, catch a sunrise or a sunset, make a loved one smile.

And stop fighting the trolls.

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More from @rebootdude

10 Oct
1/ I had 3 dreams as I grew up.

a) Run the NYC Marathon
b) Write a book
c) Produce a play on Broadway

For a kid who used the G-3 bus to get to Regal chowk for high school and W-18 to get to campus on Bhains colony, these were all moon shots.
2/ I knew they weren't real and it would take more than an alignment of planets to get me to a stage where these would become more than wishful thinking.

But I continued to dream and added more to the list.

Might as well be a traveler of the world, in business class, no less.
3/ The NYC marathon was an evolved version of an earlier dream.

One that involved running track for the national team.

Once I figured that I was too old for that to happen, I accepted a simpler version. I would be happy running a marathon. NYC would do just fine.
Read 21 tweets
9 Oct
1/ Startup failure phenotype

I grew up in an environment where failure was not looked upon favorably.

It was something that was just not done in the family.

If you studied hard you passed. If you didn't you failed.

Conversely if you failed, it implied a personal shortcoming.
2/ The first time I failed my actuarial exams, I was traumatized.

I couldn't parse the result. I had studied hard, how did I fail? Then I failed the same exam again. And again.

It didn't compute. I was 19 years old.

Something must be wrong with me.
3/ I didn't work for myself for the first few years of my professional life because I thought failure was not an option.

Once again, it wasn't something that was done. Socially and culturally speaking, it was equivalent to hanging out with the unsavory crowd, the "bad boys"
Read 17 tweets
8 Oct
1/ Pricing Models for startups and founders

Lecture notes from pricing for founders sessions this morning at @TheNestiO

How should we think about pricing our products and services as a startups or founder?

Simpler and cleaner is better than busy and cluttered
2/ There are three pricing schools

a) Cost plus - factor in all costs. Charge a multiple

b) Value - estimate perceived value for a customer. Charge a fraction

c) Paying capacity - charge whatever you can or get away with
3/ In competitive markets without a unique, differentiated product, cost plus is the likely option.

To charge premium or move into value, need traction, credibility, customer testimonials and history.

For most startups, executing on value pricing right at start is difficult.
Read 12 tweets
7 Oct
1/ Building financial models.

I often start my financial modeling lectures with the following lines from Alice in Wonderland.

The models we build depend on the questions we need to answer.

If you don't know the question, the model as well as our answer won't have any purpose. Image
2/ A model for raising funding is inherently different from one for planning and managing cash flows.

Models used for pricing and market share are different from ones we use for planning resources and head count.

We often use these parts together but the intent differs.
3/ If you know the question you need to answer, start with the simplest variation possible.

I call it the 5 x 5. A model no larger than one that can fit between 5 row and 5 columns in Excel.

Short and sweet. Simplicity forces you to think hard about choices.
Read 15 tweets
2 Oct
1/ Shortfall analysis

In #risk a powerful concept named #shortfall analysis works very well as for building financial models for #founders and #startups.

It's a bit of a mind bender the first time you read it but has interesting applications once you understand it.
2/ Imagine an important business metric.

Let's say customers order. Link that to an equally important performance measure. Profit & Loss (PnL).

The two are clearly linked.

How would you stress test or sensitivity test them? For an internal planning meeting? For a money pitch?
3/ There are 3 models you can pick for a stress test.

a) What could be our worst case loss if PnL turns negative?

b) What is the probability of a negative PnL?

c) How much do customers orders need to drop for us to hit the red zone?
Read 8 tweets
2 Oct
1/ All my life I have worked in cycles. Intense effort in one specialization followed by a repeat in another.

Working out different part of the brain every few months or years.

A few years with CS, followed by a few years as an actuary. Two years as an author than a film maker
2/ As I have gotten better the cycles have gotten shorter and more intense. Now it's a few month of regulatory reporting work, 15 days as a writer, a month of intense road running, a week as a trsiner and then repeat.
3/ The variety and context switching makes it possible for me to keep the output above the mean.

And it ensures that I don't have the time to think about boredom.

The problem is when burnout hits it's equally intense.

The last time was 2015.
Read 8 tweets

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