1/ I had 3 dreams as I grew up.

a) Run the NYC Marathon
b) Write a book
c) Produce a play on Broadway

For a kid who used the G-3 bus to get to Regal chowk for high school and W-18 to get to campus on Bhains colony, these were all moon shots.
2/ I knew they weren't real and it would take more than an alignment of planets to get me to a stage where these would become more than wishful thinking.

But I continued to dream and added more to the list.

Might as well be a traveler of the world, in business class, no less.
3/ The NYC marathon was an evolved version of an earlier dream.

One that involved running track for the national team.

Once I figured that I was too old for that to happen, I accepted a simpler version. I would be happy running a marathon. NYC would do just fine.
4/ Interestingly enough a few years later I found myself living in NYC. The dream was within reach.

We went looking for shoes and ended up spending $100 on a pair of gel-soled cutting edge @Reebok that looked as if they had been designed by a pair of rocket scientist on Mars.
5/ It was a fortune for a student family living on borrowed finances. But for a good cause.

A shot at making something happen that I had dreamed of since my pre-teens years.

That day I went for my first run on campus. It was February we had just been hit by a blizzard.
6/ The indoor gym at @Columbia had an elevated track. It was the only option possible in that weather.

I had been an outdoor runner all my life. I hated it.

This wasn't what I had dreamed of. A few weeks later, the class schedule went ballistic and the shoes were put aside.
7/ @Columbia also had Miller Theater on campus, right on Broadway. Over the next year we try three times to put together a team that would produce one of my favorite plays "Harvey" by Mary Chase.

We make it through casting, reading and rehearsals but fail to see it through.
8/ By this time I had figured it out.

Every dream has a price. Whenever we are ready to pay it, dreams become real.

If we get distracted by life or work schedules, they don't.

I couldn't afford to chase dreams when I had debts to pay, a family to support and a child to raise.
9/ The Reebok's survived the next two years till the gel-pockets got punctured and leaked. But I still have our rehearsal copies of Harvey, somewhere in my storage boxes.

And I didn't even get started on the book in NYC.
10/ Fast forward 6 years.

We are back home in Karachi. Running and Broadway plays are a distant memory.

But I have a first draft of a book in my hands. It's been a work in progress for three years. Fueled by a failed venture, late nights and my course on startup failure.
11/ The book came out of nowhere.

A starved stray kitten on your doorstep nurtured by love and care into something you could never imagine on day one.

It goes up on Amazon as an e-book. Family gives the first thumbs up. @rizvee edits it, @jehan_ara reviews it
12/ In 2008, I finish teaching a class in Singapore and a student invites me to his office.

He runs the 3rd largest printing press in the region. I ask him what would it take to see my book in print.

He says send it over. And the print edition is born.
13/ Five more years go by.

I wake up one morning with a message from an editor from a 170 year hold publisher waiting for me in my mail box.

He had seen a bit of something I have written and wants to know if I would be interested in turning it into a book
14/ We sign a 2 book deal with @Palgrave

2 years later I am a published author of a pair of text books. No one actually reads them, but they sure look good on my profile.

Nothing like a pre-sales call that begins with handing over of a signed copy of your book to the board.
15/ 33 years to see one dream come to life.

All it takes is one to get you started on the others.

A year later I have put on my running shoes and I am beating my 13 year old daughter in the quarter mile.

It is deeply embarrassing for both of us. But its a start.
16/ The quarter mile turns into cross country; cross country becomes road running; road running leads to weekly 5ks.

At a 10k registration I realize every one I want to run with is running a half, so I register for the half.

I think I am crazy but I remember the old Reeboks
17/ Dreams wait patiently in the background for us to come back to them.

I didn't make it to the NYC Marathon, but I ran 3 half marathons in Karachi. They were more satisfying, even better.

I didn't get my play on Broadway but I am done with book # 5.

2 out of 3, works for me.
18/ Why the long lecture.

I lived in NYC but wrote my books and ran my half's in Karachi.

Focus on what you have and have been blessed with, rather than what you don't have and can't get.

NYC, LA and Leesburg were points in my journey but they weren't the final destination
19/ The dreams became real when I was ready to pay the price. In terms of time, commitment, effort and sacrifice.

There was also one final missing ingredient.

For the dreams to become real, I had to come home.
20/ Don't give up on dreams.

If you can't pay the price now, don't worry. They will wait.

Place them gently inside the windmills of your mind, like forgotten love letters.

Or an old pair of Reebok, or rehearsal copies of Harvey.

They will be ready whenever you are.
21/ And ignore the arrogant assholes, the idiots, the naysayers, the voices that tell you, you won't amount to much and this isn't real.

If you haven't written a book or run a half as yet, its not because you can't or you won't.

They will be ready, waiting, whenever you are.

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More from @rebootdude

9 Oct
1/ To my students and friends in the industry.

This is not the first time we have been blind sided. This is not going to be the last time.

This is also not the end. Yes it hurts. Yes you have a right to feel miserable and depressed.

But remember, you are stronger than this.
2/ Stability and continuity of policy has been a national weakness since our very beginning. We are not new to this.

Handling this is programmed into our DNA. We always figure a way out. Takes time but we crack the code or get through to saner voices on the other side.
3/ In the mean time focus on your work, on what you can and do control. Don't waste your breath or time wallowing in self pity or darkness beyond tonight.

Yes it is a lousy hand, but you can't change the cards. Move on.

There is always work to be done. Get it done.
Read 7 tweets
9 Oct
1/ Startup failure phenotype

I grew up in an environment where failure was not looked upon favorably.

It was something that was just not done in the family.

If you studied hard you passed. If you didn't you failed.

Conversely if you failed, it implied a personal shortcoming.
2/ The first time I failed my actuarial exams, I was traumatized.

I couldn't parse the result. I had studied hard, how did I fail? Then I failed the same exam again. And again.

It didn't compute. I was 19 years old.

Something must be wrong with me.
3/ I didn't work for myself for the first few years of my professional life because I thought failure was not an option.

Once again, it wasn't something that was done. Socially and culturally speaking, it was equivalent to hanging out with the unsavory crowd, the "bad boys"
Read 17 tweets
8 Oct
1/ Pricing Models for startups and founders

Lecture notes from pricing for founders sessions this morning at @TheNestiO

How should we think about pricing our products and services as a startups or founder?

Simpler and cleaner is better than busy and cluttered
2/ There are three pricing schools

a) Cost plus - factor in all costs. Charge a multiple

b) Value - estimate perceived value for a customer. Charge a fraction

c) Paying capacity - charge whatever you can or get away with
3/ In competitive markets without a unique, differentiated product, cost plus is the likely option.

To charge premium or move into value, need traction, credibility, customer testimonials and history.

For most startups, executing on value pricing right at start is difficult.
Read 12 tweets
7 Oct
1/ Building financial models.

I often start my financial modeling lectures with the following lines from Alice in Wonderland.

The models we build depend on the questions we need to answer.

If you don't know the question, the model as well as our answer won't have any purpose. Image
2/ A model for raising funding is inherently different from one for planning and managing cash flows.

Models used for pricing and market share are different from ones we use for planning resources and head count.

We often use these parts together but the intent differs.
3/ If you know the question you need to answer, start with the simplest variation possible.

I call it the 5 x 5. A model no larger than one that can fit between 5 row and 5 columns in Excel.

Short and sweet. Simplicity forces you to think hard about choices.
Read 15 tweets
2 Oct
1/ Shortfall analysis

In #risk a powerful concept named #shortfall analysis works very well as for building financial models for #founders and #startups.

It's a bit of a mind bender the first time you read it but has interesting applications once you understand it.
2/ Imagine an important business metric.

Let's say customers order. Link that to an equally important performance measure. Profit & Loss (PnL).

The two are clearly linked.

How would you stress test or sensitivity test them? For an internal planning meeting? For a money pitch?
3/ There are 3 models you can pick for a stress test.

a) What could be our worst case loss if PnL turns negative?

b) What is the probability of a negative PnL?

c) How much do customers orders need to drop for us to hit the red zone?
Read 8 tweets
2 Oct
1/ All my life I have worked in cycles. Intense effort in one specialization followed by a repeat in another.

Working out different part of the brain every few months or years.

A few years with CS, followed by a few years as an actuary. Two years as an author than a film maker
2/ As I have gotten better the cycles have gotten shorter and more intense. Now it's a few month of regulatory reporting work, 15 days as a writer, a month of intense road running, a week as a trsiner and then repeat.
3/ The variety and context switching makes it possible for me to keep the output above the mean.

And it ensures that I don't have the time to think about boredom.

The problem is when burnout hits it's equally intense.

The last time was 2015.
Read 8 tweets

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