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Jim Bianco Profile picture
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15 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
*PLATINUM FUTURES RISE PAST $1,300/OZ FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2014

(1/2)
Seems like I've been posting a lot of commodity charts breaking out to multi-year highs. Will this be next?

At a minimum every commodity chart looks like this chart (and the one above) … straight up the last several months.

(2/2)
Here is my favorite commodity chart today ... about a point away from a 10-year high.

(Why my favorite? Explained on the chart)
My bad above … it is the Platinum chart with the wrong title.

Title corrected here.

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Jim Bianco Profile picture
15 Feb
Quick rant ...

What's wrong with politics? It is not red or blue. It is elderly versus not-elderly.

For 100 years the average age in the Senate (more so) and the House (less so) was fairly stable. But over the last 40 years the average age has sky rocketed.

(1/3)
If gets worse

Boomers (57-75) and the Silent Generation (76+) are WAY over-represented compared to their share of the wealth and population (noted on chart).

Generation X (41 to 56) and Millennials (26 to 40) are relatively under-represented.

(2/3)
Ditto the House
-
Tech is generational and it is disrupting lives/business, both good/bad. How we use/regulate this tech is THE ISSUE moving forward. It folds into equality, climate and nearly everything else.

Our elderly leaders are not capable of understanding this.

(3/3)
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
11 Feb
Bitcoin play...MicroStrategy (MSTR). On Aug 11 it announced it was converting its cash holdings into bitcoin.

8k filing this month, it now owns 71,079 bitcoins with a market value around $3B.

Since that announcement six months ago, the stock is up 10x!

It gets better

(1/3)
Dec 9 MSTR issued a $650M convertible bond with the proceeds used to buy bitcoin.

Priced at par on Dec 9, coupon of 0.75% and convertible into MSTR common at $397.

That bond traded 330 yesterday, down 71 today to 258. Yes this is a corporate bond!

Gets even better

(2/3)
If you look at the image above, 0.75% coupon and a 258 price gives it a yield of -18%. Yesterday's yield was -23%.

Is this the reining world record holder for the largest negative yield in history?

Welcome to 2021

(3/3)
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
10 Feb
The Superbowl TV ratings are looking like they were a disaster for the NFL.

Total viewers, which will be revised, were the lowest since the Colts beat the Bears in 2007. They were also the first time they were under 100 million viewers since 2009.

This includes streaming

(1/5)
It gets worse. The % of TVs that tuned in were a 51-year low!

Everyone is stuck at home and has nothing else to do on a Sunday night ... a night where it was freezing and snowed in most of the northern half of the country.

Still they could not turn on the game.

(2/5)
The key demographic of 18 to 49 year old is in free-fall!

Down more than 1/3 from a decade ago.

Not good for the long-term health of the game and why it looks like the NFL is becoming the sport of old people. Like baseball!

(Are they watching the Champions League?)

(3/5)
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
1 Feb
A Sunday night rant ...

I’m getting the feeling the COVID deniers are now Reddit Revolter deniers.

Some are even arguing that WSB is a front for the hedge funds to play their games, that maybe retail does not really exist.

And it was just the flu.

(1/4)
It’s a form of the Stockholm syndrome... where hostage have sympathy for their captors.

The Wall Street hostages are so sure their "Masters of the Universe" are orchestrating everything and will walk away the winner all the time, they will stand on their head to see it.

(2/4).
Fact is we might be seeing the greatest run of winning trades in Wall Street history, leaving wreckage of what was greatness in its wake.

Retail wins on

* meme stocks, "Masters" lose
* WFH stocks that funds missed
* Tesla
* Airlines and embarrassed Buffett along the way

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
29 Jan
Thread to explain the mkt

Q: Why is GameStop still trading at $350 when everyone that understands "fundamentals" think this is a $5 dollar stocks?

A: The only "fundamental" that matters, 62M shs short with 50M share float. It is physical impossible to cover this short.

(1/6) Image
This squeeze does not stop until this short is covered

I would GUESS that is when it gets below 25M shares, or 50% of float, and probably much less than that.

Viewed this way, what happened this week it is not that irrational.

(2/6)
Q2: Why is this driving the entire stock market down?

A2: Because the "masters of the universe" are not surrendering their shorts/covering.

So the fear is these shorts will rise so much, leading to losses and inability to meet margin calls. Brokers at risk

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
17 Jan
The chart below is Trump's approval rating from January 22, 2017, to today.

It is the average of over 50 polling services into a "trend."

(1/4)
Before last week, 2 things:

First, Trump got 48% of the vote in 2016 and 2020. But he never saw an approval rating of 48%.

No other president failed to achieve his election % in approval, and Trump failed to achieve it twice.

This is often cited as evidence of bias.

(2/4)
Second, the range of Trump's approval was 11%, 5% using +/1 std dev (shaded).

This is far and away the tightest ever. Everyone's opinion about Trump was set and no daily "hyperventilation" of whatever Trump did, or did not do, meaningfully changed anyone's opinion.

(3/4)
Read 5 tweets

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