1985-1990 the world entered a historic period of twin overshoot: extracting fossil carbon faster than the discovery rate and pumping fossil carbon into the atmosphere in quantities that put our climate system at risk. What did we do about it? /2
The IPCC was established in 1988, around the 350 ppm breach. The IPCC assumed that oil and coal and and gas were plentiful and concentrated on getting countries to limit their use voluntarily. The opposite happened. Half of all emissions were emitted since then. /3
This means we not only entered overshoot of oil and CO2 but carried on. This is gross negligence on the part of governments. We are on the edge of a global emergency we probably cannot stop. There is no excuse, as the science has been clear from the start. /4
The world economy is energy dependent for economic growth. The system itself needs more and more energy. These images from thisfiniteworld.com show the connection /5 i1.wp.com/ourfiniteworld…
In an overshoot situation like we have we need to:
1) Immediately cap all fossil fuel burning
2) Change the economic system
3) Redesign society to work on less energy
That is what pivotprojects.org is working on./6
I doubt the ability of the present political system to handle such a rapid pivot. We should be looking towards a citizen assembly led-like process. We are all going to have to change. There a a few things we can tell ourselves /7
There is no point in
1.carrying on burning fossil fuels. There is not that much left that can be extracted without using more energy than it contains.
2. sticking to the current economic model. It doesn't work more are starving than ever despite all "economic growth" /8
There is no point in
using more and more energy and material and still most people are having a hard time making ends meet post-covid.
Leaving politicians to decide.
We have to accept it is not working. We need to talk about it in #citizensassemblies 9/9

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More from @stephen_hinton

31 Jan
THOUGHT EXPERIMENT: Some 70% of people, depends how you ask, accept the global emergency. Climate system destabilisation is one aspect, declining biodiversity and increasing pollution is another. I ask: what would actually *break* if humanity responded decisively? 1/
Climate: a decisive response = cap on fossil fuel extraction and planned phase out. Fewer private car journeys, less electricity. Nothing would *break*. We still live and eat. There are alternatives and we can all cut back and share more. So what are we afraid of breaking? 2/
Pollution: reducing the above helps all that, cracking down on pollution and biodiversity loss will reduce materials consumption but changing and sharing we can still live on the planet. What would break? 3/
Read 9 tweets
23 Jan
THREAD: Last-Century thinking got humanity into a mess. It worked well though, just too well. Into the third decade of the new century and I am sad to see how little last century thinking is being named and challenged. 1/
OLD THINKING: Take that nature, use that nature. Same amount of land that we stated with, but going on four times the population and much soil erosion behind us. NEW THINKING: use it, put it back, regenerate it. 2/
OLD: Either you are good or bad. Promoted on almost every TV show. Reality is, we created a system and it grew and that system brings out the worst in us to an extent we have forgotten how to bring out the best in each other, almost. 3/
Read 11 tweets
16 Jan
THREAD: one more time on the need for citizens to understand the need for, then demand, then deliberate on, then manage - a total pivotal change. Next tweet..what is a pivot and why we need one 1/
We all did this as kids: Walk up a see-saw, you keep going fine until you cross the fulcrum then WHAM! It flips.This is what happens in nature when resources are used up faster than they are replenished. All goes fine until nearly half are used up. All who study biology know..2/
This flip is a population crash. It is natural. Important to know: the crash comes after the point where more resources are being used up than are being replenished. There is a period of overshoot. The crash comes some time after overshoot. Can that happen to humans? 3/
Read 11 tweets
7 Jan
THREAD: Johan Rockström's Performance lecture at the Swedish National Theatre (in Swedish, English Subtitles) and what it tells activists and Scientists alike. Watch it now or read my review 1/n svtplay.se/video/29406900…
In the performance, Johan Rockström sits at the bottom of the bed of a young family and explains our climate predicament. In words, no graphs. The young mother listens and gets engaged in a dialogue with him. There is a lot to like about the performance ... 2/n
Dramatic to see two worlds collide - one who has been studying the workings of the planet for 20 years and the other who has been concentrating on her acting career and having a child. (The husband is too tired to listen "I've got a rehearsal in the morning let me sleep) ..3/n
Read 18 tweets
2 Jan
TRÅD: Sorgligt det inte tas upp hur tobak är negativt för miljö och hälsa - även i snusform. Lyssna inte på Swedish Match VD som får uttala sig i DN utan kritiska följdfrågor. forts.... DN.SE dn.se/ekonomi/swedis…
Snus är ingen hälsoprodukt. Det är mindre farligt att snusa än att röka, men snusare har bland annat högre risk att dö om de drabbas av hjärtinfarkt och stroke, och nikotin ger styvare blodkärl, vilket ökar risken för hjärt-kärlsjukdomar. forts...

hjart-lung.se/vart-arbete/ti…
På sin hemsida skriver Swedish Match att de arbetar för att eliminera barnarbete i tobaksplantagerna. Att de är medlemmar i ECLT Foundation är greenwashing, enligt Tobacco Control Research Group vid Bath University som forskar på tobaksindustrin. Forts...

tobaccotactics.org/wiki/eclt-d29/
Read 9 tweets
28 Dec 20
TAIL RISK THREAD: A tail risk is one that is small but devastating. When an 8 year- old asks about crossing the road to get to a bus stop you correctly point out that there is a 1% risk she will get run over. However you might want to suggest instead 1/x
A 3-min walk to the traffic lights and crossing. To frame tail risk you include probability distribution of the event (car colliding with girl), with an outcome function (girl likely dies if hit), and account for the cost of mitigation (3 minutes to walk to traffic light) 2/x
In the realm of climate change, climate scientists are the ones charged with estimating the event risk, while other disciplines (e.g. economics, engineering) must be brought to bear on estimating outcome, and the costs of mitigating the risk or adapting to it. 3/x
Read 10 tweets

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