Dear @sam_baker & @caitlinnowens: I respect both of you but your take this morning re. the CBO score of the cost of the W&M plan to expand ACA subsidies is, to put it mildly, nonsense. THREAD:
CLAIM: "OMG!! $25,000 APIECE!!"
REALITY: $2,000 apiece.
Hell, even @brian_blase has already "clarified" his "per newly enrolled person" estimate down from $26,000 to $17,000 (he's still massively off, but it's a start).
Whoops!! Even *I* forgot another factor: If you're looking ONLY at 2022 specifically, it'd actually be $14 billion in *additional* subsidies for at least 10.8 million people, or around $1,300 apiece.
To be fair, @caitlinnowens was simply collating other folks news; this is really on @sam_baker, not her.
Bottom line:

--REASONABLE: Asking "SHOULD premiums be subsidized that heavily?"

--REASONABLE: Asking "WHY are premiums so high in the first place?"

--NOT Reasonable: Dividing $34 billion by 1.3 million when it's actually $14 billion / 10.8 million.
Gahhhhh!!

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More from @charles_gaba

18 Feb
📣 2021 #ACA Enrollment is (mostly) BACK!! Here's *8* important things to remember to help you #GetCovered!
acasignups.net/21/02/17/2021-…
1. DON'T MISS THE *NEW* DEADLINE!

In 45 states, you have until *May 15th* to #GetCovered.

In other states the deadline ranges from March 15th to "the end of the pandemic."
Here's a handy, updated chart with the latest start/end dates for the new #ACA COVID Enrollment Periods in every state. Note that 10 states have *some* restrictions on who's eligible to enroll, usually those who are currently uninsured only: Image
Read 11 tweets
17 Feb
📣 This morning, @Sam_Baker of @Axios posted a disturbingly misleading analysis of the #ACA premium expansion provision of the #AmRescuePlan. I contacted him immediately but have yet to hear a response, so yeah, I'm gonna call it out again. 1/

acasignups.net/21/02/17/cbo-r…
SHORT VERSION:

@Axios headline: "OMG! Dems gonna spend $50B to cover <2M people! That's $25K apiece!!"

REALITY: $14B spread across ~11M people, or around $1,300 apiece. 2/
The confusion is because Dems are mixing together 3 provisions which are SPECIFICALLY short-term pandemic-related (COBRA subsidies, waiving APTC clawback, max subsidies for those on unemployment) w/2 provisions which are BOTH COVID-related AND should be made permanent as well. 3/
Read 7 tweets
17 Feb
📣 @USCBO releases 10-yr cost estimate of @WaysMeansCmte portion of #AmRescuePlan, including the first official estimates of how much #HR369 might cost & how much it might boost #ACA enrollment:
acasignups.net/21/02/16/cbo-r…
At first glance, the CBO makes it look like #KillTheCliff / #UpTheSubs would cost $34.2 billion & would boost on-exchange enrollment by 1.7 million people.

HOWEVER, a closer look reveals it's a lot more complicated than that:
1. The $34.2B is over 10 yrs...but really only 4 yrs (2021 - 2024), since the subsidy expansion would only be for 2 yrs (for now), plus lingering impact for another 2.

2. Only one of those includes a full 12-month period of the #HR369 APTC formula being in effect, for $14B.
Read 7 tweets
17 Feb
This is silly. PART of the point is to reduce the number of uninsured. Part of the point is to reduce the cost to current enrollees. About 2/3 of the projected cost is to cut premiums for those already enrolled.

Employers cover ~65 - 70% of premiums for their employees.
Kaiser says avg. cost of employer-sponsored insurance is $7,200/yr for single people & $20,500/yr for families.

By comparison, an avg. ACA plan is $6,900/yr per person.

acasignups.net/rate-changes/2…
Of course, employer coverage also tends to be more generous (Gold+, ~80% of costs covered) vs. avg. ACA plans which tend to be Silver (70% of costs covered), but the point is they're in the same ballpark.

ACA subsidies effectively amount to the same thing as employer subsidies.
Read 4 tweets
13 Feb
It seems to me that EITHER they shouldn't have called the vote for witnesses (and accepted that the acquittal would happen today) OR they should have followed thru and actually called witnesses. This was tantamount to just saying "psyche!" for no reason. 1/
Having said that, as irritated as I am, the fact remains that the House Managers have done a phenomenal job, and *IF* it's true that calling witnesses would have delayed ANY other Senate business being done, including the #AmRescuePlan, by several more weeks... 2/
...then I do have *some* sympathy for the decision to wrap it up. Not much, but some.

HAVING SAID THAT, they better make goddamned sure the #AmRescuePlan *and* other major bills like voter protection, are pushed through ASAP. Otherwise they'll have made this call for nothing. 3/
Read 5 tweets
13 Feb
⚠️ MEANWHILE, #COVID19 *deaths* per capita are now 3.2% *higher* in Red counties than the Blue counties nationally: 1/
acasignups.net/21/02/13/weekl…

cc: @pbump
After #COVID19 deaths being 4x higher per capita in the Blue counties last spring, 3x higher last summer, 2x higher last fall and ~20% higher over the holidays, they're now HIGHER on a par capita basis in the counties which voted for Donald Trump by 6 points or more. 2/
Counties w/highest #COVID19 *cases* per capita:
1. Crowley County, CO
2. Chattahoochee County, GA
3. Bent County, CO
4. Lincoln County, AR
5. Lake County, TN
6. Dewey County, SD
7. Norton County, KS
8. Bon Homme County, SD
9. Buffalo County, SD
10. Trousdale County, TN
Read 5 tweets

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