#Uranium, $PDN $PALAF. Ive been giving it a lot of thought on the next stages of the Uranium moves. So clearly the move up in equities vs a spot px that has been languishing has caused many of the older hands some consternation. I think partly this has been caused by a huge
Outperformance in energy equities causing a need to reallocate funds from funds that are short/underweight energy coupled with a ESG problem. See below that according to JPM there may be $22bln that needs to flow into energy. As such money is flowing into many deals given
Nuclear is perceived as ESG compliant. Now this is +ve and i would think its only a matter of time before the uranium holding cos URPTF, Yellowcake which are now trading at premiums to NAV issue equity and soak up some of the spot driving prices higher. I believe this will
Cause the next leg up in the uranium equities esp with $22bn needing to chase/close Energy U/W by end March. 2 other observations. @AlexMiningGuy tweeted that many marginal projects are trying to get funding with subpar IRR’s.
This brings me to $PDN. I encourage you all to listen to Ian Purdy’s interview.
Why? Because the big money is going to be made on minimal dilution. Ian talks about the new projects he will fund with cash flows post Langer Heinrich. Most of these Mickey Mouse junior cos are diluting you TODAY for new projects. If $PDN can get operational with just $80m (given
$1bn in inflation adjusted $s ($600m book cost) has been spent by old shareholders for LH) you are not spending that $, and when the massive cash flows come through PDN can invest them in the other 320m lbs of Uranium assets with minimal dilution the operational gearing on your
$ is massive. Yes $pdn has been one of the best performing stocks and there is a huge temptation to find the next $PDN. My advice listen to the video and listen carefully to how the story is going to play out. $PDN is going to be one of the biggest monster winners In the U cycle
And dont be the idiot who sold apple after it doubled at $2. Ill say it again the fact that an idiotic crypto currency like dogecoin has a mkt cap 20x that of $PDN lets me realise just how much more room there is as some of the above catalysts- energy flows, U holding cos
Soaking up spot, $PDN restarting, retiring debt, and then discussing actively financing come of the new projects. We’re just at the start of the long road to owning your own

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More from @contrarian8888

20 Jan
$PDN. ($PALAF) I know paladin energy has been a rocket ship and after conversing with the ceo i am even more pumped. The uranium market is extremely quiet because of the lockdowns and covid restrictions raging throughout Europe & the US. That being said their view is by
Feb or early March, the term market will pick up considerably. A lot of utilities drew down on inventories last year because they weren’t willing to hit the spot mkt. This game can only last so long and by summer they will just need to sign contracts. Ian mentioned that a
Firm had commissioned 2 reactors worth (>10$bn each) and had just secured 2 years of U supply. The ratio of capex spent on just commissioning a multi billion dollar plant and then barely having much U supply is just nuts. This is because the market is lulled but he expects it to
Read 12 tweets
28 Dec 20
$pdn, $uuuu. Firstly i used to be a huge bull on energy fuels and bought it at $1.6 in 2018 (spring) and sold it in 4/19 at $4. I even told people then it was the height of insanity for people to think (lot of newbies entered uranium then) thinking uranium would be $70 tomorrow
With section 232. Well i enjoyed missing over a 50% collapse in the share px. Seeing uuuu again today at over a $600m mkt cap (including all the newly issued shares over the period ive been out of the stock (+40% increase in share count) vs a $pdn at 350m mkt cap with 4x the
Resources & prodn at 6m when they restart (uuuu will need over 400m$ (i know this from my conversations with mgmt) to get to just 4m prodn capacity & you can tell we’ve again hit insanity with little analysis as new investors chase a stupid 75$M in govt buying which is
Read 6 tweets
27 Dec 20
Possibly the most profound monetary event in decades. It will allow china to impose -ve rates on its citizens and I’m fascinated to see how China allows digital yuan to coexist with btc. wsj.com/articles/china…
As this weekend’s cacophony of cheering (is it just my feed or are people refreshing their browsers every 2 mins and deciding to post the updated BTC px?-so much so that I’m tempted to mute the word btc from my feed). It would be nonetheless interesting to see how btc competes
With An actual govt that has its own digital currency. For those that say btc is more powerful than china-i heard the same about a Jack Ma who seems to be a bug being quickly squashed by the Chinese govt. So maybe I’m behind the times but given the stated risks, I continue to
Read 4 tweets
26 Dec 20
Grant and his guests always give you a ton to ponder. Agree with pretty much everything they discuss. 1 long energy. 2 #DCEP is a massive threat to podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
Btc and 99% of the folks trading crypto have no concept of what is going on in china.( china is responsible for 65% of btc hash power)
@EconguyRosie post a few days ago that being —ve on btc is like calling your first born ugly and the visceral reaction being similar to tech investors in 99 or housing investors in 06 is
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov 20
$AR, $AM, $OXY. Nice to see these stocks flying and tech sucking wind.I hope to see this trend continue for many more months with this vaccine news. Surprisingly $ar isnt up that much because of the fear that rising oil will bring back assoc. gas. Firstly most oil cos will use Image
Rising oil to repair weak balance sheets, Secondly rising oil will drag up ngl realizations and oh year $AR had one of the best weekly realizations for ngl’s last week in a long time- see above. I fully expect AR to get $35 in ngls by next year. (And this puke in gas last week
Doesn’t impact them because they are hedged on gas for 2020. A 70% FCF yield and AR is a $20 stock. What its doing in this zip code (just like many absurdly valued tech names are doing in their zip code is beyond me). But given the stretched rubber band that is growth/value,
Read 4 tweets
28 Oct 20
positives; raised production, cut costs from $2.46 to 2.21, raised fcf guidance slighty. Debt facility was reaffirmed at 2.85$bn and their debt level is now $3.2 bn (so i was wrong in my assumption that based on the eqt/cvx transaction AR should double- make it up up 2.6x given
ev should be $5.8bn (based on eqt purchase px)-3.2bn debt or 2.6bn$ mkt cap or 2.8x current px) or close to $10/share.
Read 5 tweets

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