#Cryptoassets going through their first bull are likely to draw down 95-99% in their first bear.
If you think your asset is so high quality it’ll be excluded, look at $ETH’s first bear (2018-20).
Keep these #’s in mind as you gawk at “how rich you are.” If you just hodl, you may end up with 1-5% of what you have at the peak.

If holding BTC, maybe 15-30%.
I don’t buy that there won’t be a massive crash after this bull.

Humans are still the same.

Crypto is the future, but still highly speculative. Much to be built.
The only thing that would change the appearance of a steep drawdown would be high inflation in core fiat like USD.

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More from @cburniske

17 Feb
$DCR in beast mode.
For a while, skeptics asked what $DCR's raison d'être was.

Sure, @placeholdervc had put out that "Decred’s killer feature is good governance, and with good governance, you can have any feature you want," but what feature(s) was @decredproject providing the world?
IMO the turning point for people realizing @decredproject's ability to bring valuable services to the world was #DCRDEX, which has seen rapid uptake as a privacy-preserving, hard-money #DEX: dex.decred.org
Read 12 tweets
11 Feb
We're in a bullish flywheel.

Bullish news leads to more bullishness, which leads to the release of more bullish news ♾
I'm continually shocked at how driven by *hope* and *fear* all markets are. At their core, humans are so... human.
Capitalism's creation of capital is inherently speculative, try as we may to obfuscate the speculation beneath formality and formulas.
Read 6 tweets
10 Feb
The most informed see the writing on the wall for how integral @BalancerLabs is becoming to #DeFi liquidity.
To date, @BalancerLabs has not been the flashiest of the AMMs, but it is beloved by builders for allowing them to build a vast array of liquidity pools to solve pressing problems.

Developers are sticky and grow independent dependence.
Over time @BalancerLabs will find itself at the center of more & more pivotal liquidity experiments.

The launch of its V2, which will allow for customizable AMM logic, and pools to be used for both exchange & lending, will only turbocharge the trend: medium.com/balancer-proto…
Read 4 tweets
5 Feb
If you’re a #crypto founder, make sure to raise enough capital in the bull to last you through the bear.
Depending on the asset(s) you use to raise, make sure you have enough stable capital to last you for 3+ years come the end of 2021.
The party doesn’t last forever, and many of the quick believers we see around us now will just as quickly be skeptics in the bear.
Read 4 tweets
31 Jan
It’s the year of 21, how could the coin of 21 not make its pilgrimage to the top? #Bitcoin
For the non-believers: everything human that’s set in motion is done so first through faith.

From there, we are pattern seekers.
And while there are those who say only the coin of 21 shall rise, they forget every cryptoasset is a descendant of the coin of 21.
Read 4 tweets
27 Jan
The biggest threat to #crypto's current bull market in not crypto petering out, but another destabilization in the macro markets, maybe led by cracks in the mania of US equities:
I, too, want to believe in December 2021 being the top of this #crypto bull, just as December was the top in 2013 and 2017.
But when people get too comfortable in patterns is when those patterns change. History doesn't repeat, it rhymes.
Read 7 tweets

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