It’s Saturday Night, Let’s Get NERDY...
Why are some Texans seeing crazy electric bill spikes? It goes beyond supply/demand & really cold temperatures. It’s about deregulation and risk management.
2/ Bc Texas electricity mkt is so competitive, providers offer all sorts of incentives & unusual offerings like wholesale prices vs fixed. Why is this the worst moment for wholesale?
3/ The obvious: supply/demand In the face of record demand to heat homes, supply crashed.
- cold snap made everyone jack up the heat in their homes
- cold snap caused some power generation plants to shut down which reduces supply
4/  In addition, POWER is extremely hard to store. Unlike oil which can be held in reserve in enormous tanks & transported around the world, POWER needs to be generated on demand. So when demand spikes & supply drops, prices naturally rise.
5/ The NOT obvious and hugely problematic: - Electric utility companies offer 2 kinds of contracts: fixed price over long term or floating price over short term. - Floating price is riskier. Every day the supplier gets to reset the price and it’s usually cheaper,
6/ but this week exposed the unlikely but enormous risk.
Most utilities charge a FIXED rate that cannot be increased without approval from the state regulatory body. That is NOT how Griddy (Texas Electric Co) works.
7/ The model for Griddy is a wholesale subscription that uses the floating rate & bc of deregulation,there are not caps to prevent this extreme price spike.
And here we are...
8/ Per Griddy website - Who is Griddy? “Texas’s wholesale electricity provider. Get wholesale prices......You’ll pay what we pay.” And now those unlucky ones who went the wholesaler are paying a whole lot more.
9/ Most people in other states don’t have that option. We have regulated prices. We pay more day-to-day, but this never happens to the rest of us.

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More from @SRuhle

10 Feb
THREAD: Insights from 2 of the CEOs who met with President Biden yesterday...It was described as a very serious and detailed meeting, where a wide range of topics were discussed.
The room agreed that tackling the health crisis is paramount, but the economic crisis remains complicated and problematic...fearing the worsening “K” recovery [where growing income inequality, rich richer, poor poorer] vs. a “V” recovery (snap back)
Biden started with the vaccine rollout and the room concurred that the number one thing we need is to get the vaccine into America’s arms. Biden also covered education, skills gap, infrastructure, healthcare with no specific timeline.
Read 14 tweets
30 Jan
THREAD on Robinhood/Reddit/GME: CONGRESS is calling for action, but no one has clearly articulated what they actually want.

We could look back on this as the biggest “Pump & Dump” in history... with the little guys carrying all the water & then getting it dumped on their heads.
It started with a SMART discovery, Melvin Capital (hedge fund) broke the cardinal rule of short selling. They took on way too big of a short position given the size of their fund, how heavily shorted the stock already was and the amount of shares outstanding.
Technically, they were RIPE to get squeezed, but there was virtually no case for anyone following fundamentals (earnings, growth etc...) to want to buy this sleepy, brick and mortar video game retailer.
Short selling is absolutely legal and adds to efficiency of the market.
Read 17 tweets
15 Jan
THREAD: Let’s dig into Biden’s econ proposal. I know there are a lot of numbers to dig through, but I wanted to note something:

The American Family Act, Child Tax Credit expansion included in the Biden proposal.

It could have a massive impact towards addressing child poverty.
According to Columbia University: American Family Act will CUT Child Poverty by 40% - which is remarkable from a notable and economic stand point.
While it might sound like a big spend now, the cost to our economy long term from millions of children missing opportunities because they are born into poverty is enormous. (National Academy of Sciences estimates child poverty costs our country between $800bn-$1.1tr a year)
Read 6 tweets
13 Jan
THREAD: It’s #ImpeachmentDay and I’ve got money on my mind.

We learned yesterday that Trump’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank, is done doing business with him.

Before he took office, no U.S. major bank was willing to do business with him.
And in the last 48 hours, we’ve seen scores of major companies respond to last week’s riots & the refusal to certify the free & fair election (all fueled by Trump himself), cut off political donations, and some terminating business/payment processing for the Trump Campaign.
The PGA cancelling the upcoming championship at Trump Bedminster was another major blow to Trump’s bottom line & brand.

None of this would have happened if Trump was simply ending his term like any normal President.
Read 21 tweets
11 Jan
THREAD: Here’s a round-up of corporations pulling out of donations/events because of last week and what that means.
While these companies are only temporarily halting contributions & still giving to Super PACs etc., it is very significant to see them take public action NOW.

More than anyone, corporations track public sentiment. Most also don’t like being tangled in politics.
Taking clear action against Republicans in the Senate who would not certify the election and very clear distancing themselves from President Trump shows they believe this is where America’s head is at TODAY (the shift since Election Day).
Read 18 tweets
16 Nov 20
THREAD: Biden doing a call with business and labor leaders on COVID recovery + his speech today positioned to push Congress to do SOMETHING on COVID.

He is making it clear business leaders, labor leaders and government CAN and must work together to get to the other side.
Meanwhile: Trump ignoring/denying the reality of COVID increases COVID fatigue and American’s unwillingness to adhere to protocols.

+ Congress is making no headway while small businesses panic and/or fight back against state and local restrictions.
But even without more restrictions in place, small biz is in PERIL – why?

Because America is sick & getting sicker. We are not out holiday shopping, celebrating or socializing in a way that can/will keep small businesses alive. And if we do, the spread of COVID will only worsen.
Read 6 tweets

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