In an earlier analysis, we had seen how the TPR and CPM of Kerala, spiked post September, 2020.

Results of the 3 national sero surveys give clues to interpret this.

➡️ As of August 2020, KL had a seroprevalence of only 0.8% compared to national avg. of 6.6%.

1/5
➡️ This relatively low prevalence in KL correlates with the lower case load seen in the state till August.

➡️ In Dec, the prevalence saw a multi fold increase to 11.6% (national 21%) from 0.8% in August. This is reflected in the significant spike seen in KL from September.

2/5
➡️ It is notable that in Aug, KL had a relatively low prevalence of 0.8% - reflecting the initial control of spread.
➡️ It left a high % of population vulnerable to infection, which would have contributed to the spike post August. Furthered by local body elections and Onam.

3/5
➡️ How many of the actual cases did KL identify and report?
As per the 3rd serosurvey, it's estimated that KL reported 1 in 6 actual cases. Nationally, only 1 in 30 cases have been reported.

➡️ With only 11.6% prevalence as of December,

4/5
KL still runs the risk of a high % of uninfected population. With the state elections coming up in next few months, this risk will rear it's head again.

📣 ICMR serosurveys were done in 3 districts of KL. The state will be carrying out serosurvey across all districts.

5/5

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More from @covid19indiaorg

22 Feb
With news of Dr. Reddy's applying for accelerated approval of 'Sputnik V' vaccine, here is a quick summary of the potential candidate:

✅ Vaccine platform: Viral vector technology using Adenovirus as the vector. Covishield uses the same platform, but there is a difference.

1/n Image
✅ Sputnik V uses 2 different variants of the human adenovirus for the 1st and 2nd dose, unlike Covishield where both doses use the same variant of a chimpanzee adenovirus.

✅ Who is developing this vaccine? Gamaleya Research Institute, Russia.

2/n
✅ Has the vaccine got approval in other countries? Russia stirred critical discussions when use of Sputnik V was authorized in Russia before completion of trials. Subsequently Phase 3 interim results have been published.
20+ countries have given emergency approval.

3/n
Read 9 tweets
20 Feb
How has Covid19 and the changes brought by it, affected different spheres of your life?
Let us know in this series of polls:

1. What impact did Covid19 have on your job and career prospects?

1/7
2. How did Covid19 affect your personal relationships with your dearest ones?

2/7
3. How did Covid19 affect your physical health?

3/7
Read 7 tweets
9 Feb
Kerala - Of delayed peak and long plateau: After reporting the 1st Covid19 case in Jan 2020, KL hit it's peak only in Oct 2020. Even till Sept., cases per million of KL remained lower than that of states like TN, KA, AP.
The story after the peak though has been different.

1/4
TN + AP peaked in Aug '20, while KA hit it's peak in Sep '20. KL had a monthly TPR of only 5.8% in September (overall TPR 4.5%), again indicating an increasing but controlled spread.
Did this relatively controlled spread for most of 2020, lead to increased cases post Sept.?

2/4
After hitting the peak, states like TN, KA and AP saw a significant decline in cases within 2 months. Unlike them, monthly cases per million and TPR have mostly plateaued in KL, without seeing a significant dip.
A combination of increased mobility, high population density,

3/4
Read 4 tweets
5 Jan
The expert committee of CDSCO met on 30/12, 01/01 and 02/01 to deliberate on accelerated approval of vaccines. Recommendations made on each day have been officially published.

📣 In this thread, we take a look at the timeline of events that lead to the approval. Must read.

1/n
30th December:
#Covaxin: Bharat Biotech presents status of Phase 3 trials and updated safety data.
📣 Committee recommends that updated safety and EFFICACY data of Phase 3 trials have to be presented for further consideration.

2/n
30th December:
#Covishield: SII presents safety and efficacy data of Phase 2/3 trials from UK, Brazil, SA along with data from ongoing Indian trials. SII mentions that UK has provided EUA.

📣 Committee asks for complete details of UK approval to be submitted.

3/n
Read 10 tweets
5 Jan
Israel's vaccination sprint: Around 14% of Israel's total population have already received the 1st dose of Covid19 vaccine. A sprint that has taken Israel to the top of the per capita vaccination chart.

How did the country of 9M people achieve this? A thread.

1/n
Small size: Israel is a small country of 9 million people - slightly larger than Chennai and less than half of Mumbai's population. The size makes distribution/logistics easier and can't be compared to the challenges of larger countries. But, the story goes beyond it's size.

2/n
Healthcare system: At the center of Israel's swift vaccination progress is the universal, vertically integrated, digitised healthcare system. Health care is a fundamental right in Israel, with mandatory health insurance run by 4 health maintenance organizations.

3/n
Read 12 tweets
4 Jan
A (long) thread on Bharat Biotech - ICMR's #Covaxin vaccine.

1. Type of vaccine: #Covaxin is a whole virion INACTIVATED vaccine.
In such vaccines, the whole #sarscov2 virus is inactivated to make it harmless and used to make the vaccine. Seed virus provided by NIV Pune.

1/n Image
2. How is it different from #Covishield? Covishield is a VIRAL VECTOR vaccine. Here, the spike protein of #sarscov2 is sequenced. A weakened virus that causes common cold in chimpanzees called Adenovirus is used as the vector to carry the spike protein in the vaccine.

2/n Image
3. Phase 1 trial: 375 persons in trial, done across 11 sites in 9 states.
Age profile: 18 to 55.
375 persons divided into 4 groups. 3 groups of 100 each received 3 different formulations of the vaccine and 1 control group of 75 received placebo.
Dosage: 2 doses, 14 days.

3/n Image
Read 12 tweets

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