Thread by @EHSANI221

#Russia ‘s military intervention in #Syria was arguably the decisive turning point that decided the war

Yet,

When did Damascus decide to reach out to Moscow?

Did Washington know?

More importantly, could the U.S have done anything to prevent the intervention

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2-As early as 2012, Damascus had become aware that the war posed an existential risk to the system. Messages were sent to key opposition leaders that unless the situation was soon brought under control, leadership will have no option but to reach to our "big allies"

3-When Damascus became convinced that opposition had no intention of rolling back the unfolding crisis, decision was made to reach out to the big allies. Initial communication with Moscow took place in 2012 via respective heads of security

4-Medvedev was #Russia 's President at the time. Security representative from Damascus was told it was best to wait for the elections when Putin was expected to be next in charge. Once that happens, the team was encouraged to come back & probe the issue again with Moscow

5-Once Putin took over, the team from Damascus reached out to #Russia a second time. This time, they found a receptive ear in Moscow. In the months that followed, intense negotiations took place about the shape, scope and other details of the planned intervention

6-The decision to postpone the actual intervention to Sep 2015 was based on Washington politics and the timing of the 2016 elections. Come the fall of 2015, the Obama Admin would soon be on its way out as the U.S would enter the all-consuming Presidential elections season

7-While Damascus was busy working on details of #Russia 's intervention, the leadership still hoped it can be avoided. Damascus had long concluded that #Turkey & its open borders presented biggest obstacle to ending the war. Jihadists had been using the border as an open highway

8-Obama in meantime was under more pressure from within his cabinet to stop the bloodbath. Videos & images of barrel bombs dropping on residential areas presented particular headache for the WH. Those images were very hard to allow to continue without threatening a response

9-It was at this time that an ex admin official decided to use his previous connections to explain to Damascus the changing tone inside the WH. Obama was put under increasing pressure to intervene unless Damascus puts a stop to its abhorrent military tactics

10-As the ex US Admin official made Assad personally aware of the pressure on Obama to act, #Syria 's leader listened and later indicated his own dismay at the way #Turkey was allowed to send scores of foreign jihadists into the conflict

11-The meeting concluded on a semi-hopeful note. If Washington could pressure #Turkey to stop and roll back its involvement in the conflict, Damascus would agree to stop its use of barrel bombs & abide by a number of other items that were raised during the meeting

12-Almost immediately after ex admin official reached Washington, Idlib fell to the opposition. When the conversation with Assad was relayed to key officials in the Admin, the response was cold dismissal. Why offer Damascus anything now when they are clearly on the run

13-What was totally missed in Washington was how imminent #Russia 's entry was by this time. Yet, Damascus still made one final attempt to find a solution before D day. Washington refused to play along. Assad was surely going down so why offer him anything was the thinking inside

14-Key to this story is the issue of trust. US officials often claim "the Syrians can't be trusted". Following the meeting in Damascus, the ex Admin official had asked if Syrian side was prepared to put things in writing. "Yes, we are" came the answer to the person's surprise

15-Between the constant faulty assumption that Assad is surely going down and the preoccupation with the ongoing Iran nuclear talks, Washington never took this private initiative with Damascus seriously enough. With hindsight, this was a major missed opportunity

16-Once Damascus concluded Washington was not receptive to this final throw of the dice to find a solution before announcing the intervention, the time had come to settle the ultimate victor of the military conflict once and for all. Putin would make that announcement at UNSC