(Personal) Thread on debate about US Covid status -- glass half full or half empty; life back to normal or "constant vigilance." It seems to be less about data, but about choosing a standard of measurement: bulk or intimate. I earlier described the mental pivot we needed⬇️ 1/
By any "bulk" measurement, the foundations are strong/awesome. All systems are go (ice delays notwithstanding); vaccines are working; strong proof for controlling transmission; glitches are fixable; supply increasing; more vaccines will be approved; hesitancy going down. 2/
With any "intimacy" measure, there is (may always be?) worry. We get to normal if people continue to behave well so the risk of claiming victory prematurely is high; minority and disadvantaged communities are being left out; "blips" are real; anti-vaxxers suck; variants exist. 3/
As a person who measures in bulk, it is important to be reminded that big numbers can be harsh, unfeeling or too hopeful. But it doesn't help -- not least of all public health and vaccinations -- to suggest change isn't both attainable and fabulous. 4/
So instead of asking "will schools be open in the Fall?" we should be asking "which schools won't be open and why not?" Instead of reporting Fauci says masking in 2022 (he didn't say full masking), we can hug again by Fall. 5/

This is good take @DKThomp:
Our baseline must be that the systems are leading to normal because it is not only true, it is also self-fulfilling. Vaccinations beget vaccinations, especially in minority communities. A rolling recovery -- not all at once, but better each day -- gets us to equitable success. 6/
We remember 500,000 dead. We honor them by pausing and reflecting, and also by acknowledging (with hope for future and horror that it came to this) that every metric is heading in the right direction for those who remain.



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More from @juliettekayyem

10 Feb
Thread on data of #capitolriot charges. This is why the isolation, condemnation and deplatforming of their spiritual and operational head must continue: only small % had ties to organized groups, while the rest only had allegiance to Trump. This is good 1/
Why? The question remains how relevant to domestic terrorism movement is Trump? Qanon moves on; white supremacy exists; hate never went away. Of course that is true but I don't think helpful. We have a tactical threat: the concern that Trump continues to nurture and recruit. 2/
Yes we have "big picture" issues about race and tolerance and conspiracies but sometimes solving an immediate problem can help with longer term one. Trump's use of terrorism tactics was that problem. And the data shows he was successful at getting individuals radicalized. 3/
Read 5 tweets
5 Feb
.@Farah_Pandith, who wrote a book about radicalization, has something to say about the podcast Caliphate today. This isn't just about fact-checking. Every female counterterrorism expert saw what was happening: the selling of a sexy (pun intended) story to the public. 1/
From the PR campaign, to the haunting fear that the reporter has about being physically in danger, to the glamorization of violence, and the caricature of female ISIS members, the whole thing was, in Farah's words, made "glam." 2/
And it worked. Caliphate was to counterterrorism as Serial was to criminal justice issues by bringing a major issue to the forefront through audio storytelling of the life of one man through a believing woman. I am well aware of the irony is this analogy. 3/
Read 5 tweets
11 Jan
Political commentators are falling into mistake that violent terror threats get less so if some mercy (no impeachment) is shown its leader. There is history of counterterrorism efforts that show otherwise. Only complete isolation, powerlessness, deplatforming, of leader works. 1/
For the next 10 days and beyond, Trump has to be seen as ineffectual, without oxygen, so he can not have second act. No soft exit. It’s horrible to admit, but do not buy into argument that violence is less if we put a brake on gas pedal. They need to be stopped. 2/
But the violence is actually worse if they, and future recruits, view him as strong. They want to back a winner. We prepare for violence but it will be less so in the future with no leadership and if they know their leader can’t help them. 3/
Read 4 tweets
9 Jan
CAUTIOUSLY HAPPY THREAD: vaccine distribution. I promised I would return to this prediction.

After first full non-holiday week, US is getting closer to 1 million doses a day (865K Fri, up from @700K Th) and we may be hitting inflection point.
Quick thoughts: we are unlikely to have a supply problem by Feb with Biden announcement (he is not changing FDA standards, only distribution timing of first vaccine because of reliance on supply chain per @ScottGottliebMD good idea) and other vaccines (johnson and johnson). 2/
We need leeway on allocation decisions; move stuff faster. Don't give up on allocations, but some flexibility. States are starting to do this. Go to groupings first, if things get tied up, move quickly to next allocation. These are things that are learned by implemention. 3/
Read 5 tweets
3 Jan
On vaccination distribution, time is of the essence but I can’t urge enough that data after one non holiday week will be very telling about what actually needs to be fixed. We don’t want to screw up the science with wrong fix.
Jan 4-11th.
Then: Jan 20, competency.
See ⬇️ 1/
Some wild proposals being mentioned because this is a “disaster” there are “no plans” etc. and if you’ve been through this before you know systems take time and resources. I’m not defending anyone. Trump lied about 20 M. Eyes on prize. Sweeping assessments lead to bad “fixes.” 2/
So I urge patience before we tinker with science or medicine or allocation decisions. From my perch, money and personnel and maybe some distribution of locales (everyone thinks big vaccination sites, but small and more also works) This is great analogy from @ZoeMcLaren 3/3
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec 20
I appreciate the sentiment this reflects. I (of all people) also appreciate that we draw conclusions about Arabs and Muslims as well. So, I want to start there. But there is a reason in this very unique case why (some of us) use words like suicide bomber but not terrorist. 1/
I'm not here to defend analysis, I'm thick skinned, simply to explain thinking. As we all know, terrorism is a motivational crime, violence for political or ideological impact. A lot of things can elicit terror, seem "terrorist" like, but not be that 2/
Why does it matter? The long game. I too am worried about white radical terrorism in US. Trump condones it as well by using tactic known as #stochasticterrorism to incite without directing. More on my thoughts @markfollman @motherjones 3/
Read 6 tweets

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