Thread by @juliettekayyem

(Personal) Thread on debate about US Covid status -- glass half full or half empty; life back to normal or "constant vigilance." It seems to be less about data, but about choosing a standard of measurement: bulk or intimate. I earlier described the mental pivot we needed⬇️ 1/

https://twitter.com/juliettekayyem/status/1333510317515689987

By any "bulk" measurement, the foundations are strong/awesome. All systems are go (ice delays notwithstanding); vaccines are working; strong proof for controlling transmission; glitches are fixable; supply increasing; more vaccines will be approved; hesitancy going down. 2/

With any "intimacy" measure, there is (may always be?) worry. We get to normal if people continue to behave well so the risk of claiming victory prematurely is high; minority and disadvantaged communities are being left out; "blips" are real; anti-vaxxers suck; variants exist. 3/

As a person who measures in bulk, it is important to be reminded that big numbers can be harsh, unfeeling or too hopeful. But it doesn't help -- not least of all public health and vaccinations -- to suggest change isn't both attainable and fabulous. 4/

So instead of asking "will schools be open in the Fall?" we should be asking "which schools won't be open and why not?" Instead of reporting Fauci says masking in 2022 (he didn't say full masking), we can hug again by Fall. 5/

This is good take @DKThomp:

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/13638448699664138265/

Our baseline must be that the systems are leading to normal because it is not only true, it is also self-fulfilling. Vaccinations beget vaccinations, especially in minority communities. A rolling recovery -- not all at once, but better each day -- gets us to equitable success. 6/

We remember 500,000 dead. We honor them by pausing and reflecting, and also by acknowledging (with hope for future and horror that it came to this) that every metric is heading in the right direction for those who remain.

@jameshamblin
7/7

theatlantic.com/health/archive…