I've been of view for some time that TCA represents high point in what's likely to be a difficult & deteriorating UK/EU relationship. Despite public pronouncements to contrary, in private, officials on both sides now acknowledge that this seems likely 1/5
For EU - Because HMG continues to misrepresent deal it struck to public & blame EU for its consequences. EU finds gap between Govt's rhetoric & reality unreal. This is killing trust. Reduces influence of more moderate member states that are open to addressing problems in TCA 2/5
For UK - Because Tory strategists continue to see electoral benefit - with red wall voters & constraining Labour - of a hard line on EU. Crystallised by Frost appointment, who as a believer in EU divergence, will now sit in Cabinet & advise on domestic regulation & reform 3/5
EU believes Govt's first reflex is tactical - politicise every issue for short term gain. But this has strategic consequence of reducing likelihood HMG can secure changes it wants to TCA that will help alleviate some of challenges businesses are facing - today & in future 4/5
EU has been moderate in its response to HMG misrepresentations & accusations so far, but a fight back is likely if it continues. Moderate EU capitals & voices are becoming a minority. If we think last 8 weeks have been bad, wait until escalation is pushed from BOTH sides
ENDS
ENDS
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