.@EmmanuelMacron Govt has lost control of its message on Islam & Islamism & his reputation is taking a massive battering abroad - esp in US (@nytimes @washingtonpost). But his approach - not without errors & misjudgements - is far more balanced than critics claim Thread 1/
Macron’s recent troubles stem from recent, stupid remarks made by his higher education minister, Frédérique Vidal, who announced an investigation into so-called “Islamo-gauchiste” (Islamo-leftist) influence at French universities 2/
“Islamo-gauchisme” has long been an issue in France. It means, in essence, an alleged alliance between parts of the French hard left (anti-capitalist & often anti-Semitic) with extreme & sometimes violent forms of Islamist ideology 3/
But the phrase has recently been hijacked by the far right as a way of disqualifying any attempt by Fr left to attack racist/marginalising attitudes or actions towards Fr Muslims. So it was incredibly foolish for Vidal & other ministers to use term - even if phenomenon exists 4/
Before Vidal entered the fray, much of the controversy over French Govt's approach to Islam swirled around interior minister Gérald Darmanin. Earlier this month, Darmanin debated with Marine Le Pen for 70 minutes on prime time French TV 5/
It has since become received wisdom in Fr & US media that Darmanin accused Le Pen of “being soft” on radical Islam because she rejects much of Govt's anti-separatism law. This is perfect case study in how difficult/polarised it has become to discuss Islam & Islamism in France 6/
Le Pen said she detested the draft law because it applies to all religions. She demanded a tougher law, incl an outright ban on the hijab on French streets, which would directly attack “Islamist ideology” but not attempt to place new boundaries between church & state 7/
Darmanin said this approach could not work; would be unconstitutional;  discriminatory against Islam; & would allow radical Islamists to continue to infiltrate mosques in France. He then teased her by saying her proposals were “soft” & “shaky” 8/
That one word “soft” is now all that much of Fr media, including Le Monde, recalls of the debate. But it was also notable for the robust defence by Darmanin of the right of Muslim women to wear the hijab in public spaces 9/
Was Darmanin trying to have it both ways – defend Islam as “a great faith” while posing as “tougher” than Le Pen? Maybe. Politics is politics after all 10/
There's no doubt Macron’s approach to radical Islam is designed to reassure & attract moderate to conservative right-wing opinion before elections in April/May next year. But the suggestion that Macron is “flirting with far right” is factually wrong & electorally nonsensical 11/
Far right voters detest Macron, viewing him as the ultimate manifestation of a pro-European ruling elite, allegedly soft on crime & radical Islam. They will never switch to him in any significant numbers 12/
His electoral prospects could however be enhanced by a modest swing back towards the left & centre (something that he was planning before the Coronoviris pandemic swept all bets off the table). Suspect that's the direction into which he'll lean 13/
It's also worth looking at Macron's policies in aggregate - especially his set piece speech on 2 Oct & the draft law on “reinforcing Republican values” which followed. These were heavily influenced (& welcomed) by consultations with moderate Muslim leaders, academics & imams 14/
(Worth recalling that it was 14 days after his speech when Samuel Paty was beheaded by a young radicalised Chechen Muslim in a Paris suburb. This followed a long line of Islamist-inspired terrorist attacks in Fr in the six years since Charlie Hebdo & HyperCacher murders) 15/
In his Oct intervention, Macron also became the first French Pr to acknowledge a decades-old, de facto policy of economic & social “separatism” by “white” or “mainstream” France towards its largely Muslim minorities of north African & African origin 16/
The Govt has thus advanced policies to improve the economic conditions & job opportunities in inner French suburbs (banlieues) where most French Muslims live. Macron has also promoted a new law & machinery against job or other discrimination on racial or ethnic grounds 17/
Of course the Govt could do more. But it's equally fair to say that these initiatives should at least have been noted in Fr & US media attacks on Macron’s alleged “flirting with the far right” 18/
All this needs to be seen in context of Fr commitment to a fiercely secular state in which all religions are allowed & defended but none promoted by state institutions. Much of Fr - right & left - see rise of radical Islam as a security threat & a challenge to this model 19/
Yet French secularism remains fundamentally misunderstood abroad.
In its essence, it amounts to a charter for tolerance & democracy which is an important protection for France’s Muslims & other racial & religious minorities 20/
At the same time, it’s also true that the French don’t understand how their orientation towards this issue is misunderstood beyond their borders. Senior Fr figures are way too fickle about any such criticism. All of this is creating an unhelpful & difficult dynamic 21/
Macron plans to intervene in the near future (perhaps another speech?) probably in an attempt to restate & reinforce the even-handed approach he took on 2 Oct. That would be a good thing, but it may simply raise the temperature given how polarised the debate has now become 22/
That would be a shame. Macron’s law to strengthen the secular tradition is centrist, sensible & well-balanced, despite missteps. But his Govt needs to be more careful & coherent in explaining & defending it in future.

Full piece here @POLITICOEurope

politico.eu/article/on-isl…

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More from @Mij_Europe

23 Feb
I've been of view for some time that TCA represents high point in what's likely to be a difficult & deteriorating UK/EU relationship. Despite public pronouncements to contrary, in private, officials on both sides now acknowledge that this seems likely 1/5
For EU - Because HMG continues to misrepresent deal it struck to public & blame EU for its consequences. EU finds gap between Govt's rhetoric & reality unreal. This is killing trust. Reduces influence of more moderate member states that are open to addressing problems in TCA 2/5
For UK - Because Tory strategists continue to see electoral benefit - with red wall voters & constraining Labour - of a hard line on EU. Crystallised by Frost appointment, who as a believer in EU divergence, will now sit in Cabinet & advise on domestic regulation & reform 3/5
Read 5 tweets
17 Feb
Was good to speak to @MarkUrban01 @BBCNewsnight last night on UK/EU deal. In case you missed it, I think TCA will basically be as good as it gets - for quite some time. Four reasons in this mini-thread 1/
1: Govt wants to diverge. Whether symbolic or substantive is yet to be resolved between pragmatic & ideological Tory €sceptics. But only q is how far/fast. 3 March budget cd provide some clues. Sunak likely to say something about divergence agenda in context of Covid recovery 2/
1b: Good eg is equivalence for financial services, which remains unlikely. Govt doesn't want to be rule-taker from Bxl; thinks sector will be better regulated by HMT/BoE. EU also not keen; believes trust & stable relations are pre-requisites, both of which are lacking with HMG 3/
Read 7 tweets
11 Feb
A lot has been written about what Mario Draghi's arrival in Italy means for Italy. But little has been said about what he could mean for Europe. I think Draghi could be a game changer for EU; he could even turn its toxic North-South dynamic on its head. Thread 1/
Why? The @EU_Commission is currently reviewing (quietly) member states reform plans. These are basis upon which EU capitals hope to begin receiving their allocation, in transfers & loans, from the €750 billion Recovery Fund, starting later this year 2/
Remember the numbers are unprecedented. Italy is eligible for ~€188bn (roughly €65.5bn in grants; €123bn in loans). Spain a €144bn, roughly €59bn in grants & €85bn in loans etc etc. The amounts for all member states are unprecedented 3/
Read 16 tweets
23 Jan
The snail-like first 10 days of French vaccine roll-out means Fr is still behind other countries – only 1.44% of the 66mn population vaccinated as of last night. As of today, France would still not yet appear on this FT chart. BUT that will soon change 1/
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-va…
The French vaccine programme has exploded into life in the last four or five days, with an average of well over 100,000 jabs a day. As a result  France is now jabbing faster (pro rata) than Germany or Italy 2/
It has vaccinated a total of 963,139 people (139,572 yesterday alone) and will today hit – 8 days early - its initial, modest target of 1,000,000 by the end of January. This is only four days longer than the UK took to reach its “first million jabs.” 3/
Read 6 tweets
20 Jan
This fine essay by @BrunoTertrais is a dense and thought-provoking analysis of @EmmanuelMacron foreign policy. Some of his criticism is justified 1/6
However, I personally don’t buy the idea that the great key to the Macronist world view (if such a thing exists) is his one-time mentor, the Eurosceptic former Socialist minister, Jean-Pierre Chevènement 2/6
Chevènement was and is a fierce French nationalist. Macron’s view of “sovereignty” may be fluid at times but it is mostly defined in a European context: the need for a European strategic sovereignty – economic, political & military. I think this would be repugnant to Chevènement
Read 6 tweets
14 Jan
The risks that arise from Merkel's departure this year aren't really linked to her succession, but rather the vacuum she leaves behind in Europe. For Brexit/UK watchers, this is an important transitional year for the EU - & one worth paying attention to
Thread 1/
The outcome of Ger elections in Sept is highly likely to be a Black/Green coalition. Positive for Ger & EU. All the contenders to replace Merkel are also mainstream, some just more conservative than others. See @NazMasraff & @COdendahl very good analysis & threads for more 2/
Yet despite this constructive outcome, in short & medium term, Merkel’s departure will leave a large gap in EU no leader can credibly fill. @EmmanuelMacron will try, but without Merkel or strong partnership in Berlin, his more disruptive, abrasive style won't succeed 3/
Read 18 tweets

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