Interesting data from Denmark*

From mid November to mid February, experienced a huge surge then huge fall in #SARSCoV2 cases

Over same period, more comtagiois #B117 grew from <0.1% of genotyped cases to about 50%
I’m not sure what this means. Absolute numbers were decreasing, but country has been in a lockdown. They plan to start easing the lockdown slowly at end of Feb thelocal.dk/20210222/denma…
Also are in early stages of vaccination (like US) but moving deliberately to offer to whole population by mid-summer
Denmark is in early stages of vaccination (like US) but moving deliberately to offer to whole population by mid-summer
...and they ordered more Moderna/Pfizer than other countries that pinned hopes on AstraZeneca) irishtimes.com/news/world/eur…
It’ll be instructive to see how the outbreak behaves in Denmark as they emerge from lockdown, with #B117 the majority of #SARSCoV2 variants but also increasing proportion of population vaccinated (they have more Moderna/Pfizer than several other EU countries)
For more info, here’s a great story by @kakape from a couple weeks ago laying out the situation and considerations at play:
* Some of my interpretation depends on my Google-aided translation of Danish headings in the first table. Also they are genotyping a lot: averaging > than 25% of cases during Nov/Dec surge, And even higher proportion in recent weeks

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More from @WhitneyEpi

25 Feb
I’m tired

In December, I wrote in @zeynep’s newsletter, Insight, about vaccine prioritization. I used a well-publicized inequity among #HCWs as case study

Major point: first-come, first served systems put the most advantaged & least at-risk first in line
zeynep.substack.com/p/the-vaccine-…
2/ I’m kicking myself bc I let myself lose track of a shift in my state’s prioritization scheme. As of yesterday, all childcare workers and K-12 teachers in particular are eligible to get vaccinated...
3/ I’ve been trying to help the teachers at my kids’ daycare get vaccinated. Only one is 65 yo+. Several others are just shy of that, Black women in their early 60s or late 50s (amazing women who’ve cared for my children w intention & purpose the past 6 years)
Read 22 tweets
24 Feb
1/ Being interviewed by @CurleyWriter got me thinking more about how age-related social network features affect #SARSCoV2 spread...
2/ Here’s a new pet theory I have for why Florida and California are #COVID19 outliers in different directions (CA worse than expected, FL faring better than expected*):

Differences in typical social networks of older people in each state
3/ We know that parts of California, which suffered terribly in recent #SARSCoV2 surge, have the highest levels of household crowding in the country...
Read 7 tweets
9 Feb
🧵I’ve written before about the undercurrent of misogyny I perceive in the public debate about in-person K-12 schooling in the US...1/
🧵I’ve stopped much writing about #SARSCoV2 & K-12: I think weight of evidence is strong that K-12 (esp for younger ages) can be operated w very low levels of in-school #SARSCoV2 transmission when precautions in place (new variants may change this) dontforgetthebubbles.com/evidence-summa… ...2/
🧵...and I’ve stopped writing about it because the debate seems polarized and hardened (although there’s a LOT of policy movement rn nationally...we’ll see how that all plays out). I just don’t have much to add that I think will change anyone’s mind 3/
Read 21 tweets
6 Feb
1/ Another great episode of @ShinyEpiPeople! (Last week’s with @DebJakubowski was also fabulous - so 👏🏾many 👏🏾gems!👏🏾). Two ideas struck me from this @BillMiller_Epi interview:
2/ #1 Creating inclusive work cultures. @BillMiller_Epi talked about his #ADHD & how worn out he can feel after mtgs, how he sometimes has to move & situate his body in certain ways to focus, how he has to set time limits on mtgs...
3/ This is all the more relevant in our Zoom culture where mtgs can be stacked back-to-back without a worker ever getting up from a chair or being kicked out of a conference room. Being mindful of mtg length, flexibility w having cameras off, taking mtgs outdoors helps everyone
Read 9 tweets
6 Feb
@rwidome Popping in real quick with my gut opinion: what goes up must come down”. The pattern is US is, when things spin out of control to a certain threshold, governments, workplaces and individuals alter behavior...
@rwidome It can be hard too see nationally because many of the outbreaks are local...
@rwidome But, over and over again, the big spikes in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are followed by steep drops in Rt (transmission rates) as people and institutions get the message that, Oh, this is bad!
Read 16 tweets
27 Jan
🧵Stepping out of my #epitwitter lane to do some armchair health policy

The #1 easy thing Biden admin should do to reduce February’s #COVID19 deaths is dissolve botched nursing home vaccination contract w CVS & Walgreens in states like MS & let states give #LTC vax directly
2/ this article shows where things in MS stood a few weeks ago, and the problem still hasn’t been fixed. Many nursing home residents and staff still waiting on *FIRST* shots!
3/ In comparison, West Virginia, another largely rural state, didn’t enter into the federal-private program with CVS & Walgreens - and its DONE vaccinating in nursing homes. BOTH SHOTS DONE! Over a week ago! And it shows in their overall #COVID19 vax rates
Read 7 tweets

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