Welp I was just the person testifying at a congressional hearing who had to be told she was on mute.
This is a hearing on the minimum wage and omg before this I had mistakenly let myself believe that the myth that min wage workers are teenagers had been debunked.
PEOPLE. Only ONE IN TEN workers who would benefit from a $15 min wage in 2025 are teenagers.
Wow there is a lot of confusion about the impact of minimum wage increases on prices. The facts: it is true that *some* of the impact of minimum wage increases is passed along in the form of higher prices. 3/
But to put it in perspective, consider this: increasing the min wage to $15 in 2025 will increase the total wages going to low-wage workers by $107 billion. But total personal consumption expenditures annually are over $14 trillion! 4/
The $107 billion is well under one percent of total personal consumption expenditures. So even if the entire amount were passed on in the form of higher prices (which won’t happen), it would still have a barely perceptible effect on the overall price level as it was phased in. 5/
And, any detectable effect would happen *only* during the phase-in period. After reaching the new level and moving to regular indexing, the impact on inflation would be zero. 6/
(Actually, after reaching the new level, the impact on inflation from regular indexing to median wages could be negative, since median wages have grown more slowly than productivity & prices in recent decades—slow growth which, all else equal, puts downward pressure on inflation)
Near the beginning of this thread I pointed out only 1 in 10 people who would get a raise if the min wage is raised to $15 in 2025 are teens. Many have pointed out that teens deserve a decent wage too and I am sorry for potentially implying otherwise by not saying it explicitly!
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Today is the last #JobsDay with data from the Trump Administration (today’s data are from mid-January). So what does the economy former President Trump handed off to President Biden look like? It’s bleak. 1/
The labor market added just 49,000 jobs in January. And that's likely too rosy—given low seasonal hiring in the pandemic, seasonal adjustments likely made the December numbers look worse than they really were and are making the January numbers look better than they really are. 2/
The average job change of the last three months provides a better sense of current movements, and it was just 29,000. We have 9.9 million fewer jobs than we did before the recession. At *this* pace it would take 29 years to get back to prerecession jobs levels. 3/
Another 1.1 million people applied for UI last week, including 779,000 who applied for regular state UI and 349,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The 1.1 million who applied for UI last week was a decrease of 88,000 from the prior week, but the four-week moving average of total initial claims ticked up by 51,000. 2/
Last week was the 46th straight week total initial claims were greater than the worst week of the Great Recession (GR). (If you restrict to regular state claims—b/c we didn’t have PUA in the GR—initial claims last week were still greater than the third-worst week of the GR.) 3/
This morning BLS released 2020 data on unionization, and it is fascinating. A thread. 1/ bls.gov/news.release/u…
In 2020, 15.9 million workers in the U.S. were represented by a union—a decline of 444,000 from 2019. However, there was an *increase* in the unionization *rate* in 2020, from 11.6% to 12.1%. WHAT. 2/
In a nutshell, union workers saw less job loss than non-union workers in the pandemic. 3/
This morning, DOL released some of the last unemployment insurance (UI) claims data of the Trump era. That means this release helps us understand the economy President Biden just inherited. Here we go. 0/
Another 1.3 million people applied for UI last week, including 900,000 who applied for regular state UI and 424,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The 1.3 million who applied for UI last week was an increase of 113,000 from the prior week. The increase underscores that layoffs are increasing as the virus surges. Total initial claims are now back to roughly where they were at the end of September. 2/
Here we are, astonishingly, at the last #JobsDay of 2020. It’s a moment to take stock of where things stand after the first 11 months of 2020 (and the first 9 months of COVID). Brace yourselves. 1/
We added 245,000 jobs in November, but the labor market remains in crisis. We lost so many jobs in March and April that even though we’ve now added jobs for 7 months in a row, we are still nearly 10 million jobs below where we were in February. 2/
Further, in the year before the recession, we added 194,000 jobs per month on average, so from February to November, we could have added around 1.7 million jobs. That means the total gap in the labor market right now is on the order of 11.6 million jobs. 3/
Another 1.0 million people applied for UI last week, including 712,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 289,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/
After two weeks of increases, the 1.0 million who applied for UI last week was a welcome decline of 105,000 from the prior week. 2/
But, last week was the 37th straight week total initial claims were greater than the worst week of the Great Recession (GR). If you restrict to regular state claims (b/c we didn’t have PUA in the GR), initial claims are still nearly three times where they were a year ago. 3/