Germany has reported significant progress in 2021, bringing cases down to ~⅓ of peak. Over the last several days, that progress has slowed, and the 7-day averages for cases and deaths have flattened.

Yesterday they reported 5,764cases and 422 deaths.
Angela Merkel warned yesterday that Germany might be beginning a third wave due to new variants, and emphasized that the country “cannot afford ups and downs”.

reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Although the country as a whole has seen progress slow down, several regions are still reporting progress. Saarland, the smallest German state, is setting an example.
As a potential third wave is beginning, it is imperative that Germany protects its communities with very low levels of transmission by restricting inbound travel and imposing quarantine measures for new arrivals.
The clear way out is to set a goal of NoCovid and use a Green Zone exit strategy. The smaller the zones, the faster they can return to normal. Current numbers range from 5 per week in Schweinfurt to 1142 in Hannover.

Zones in Germany:
endcoronavirus.org/green-zone-ran…
The nocovid group in Germany has been advancing this conversation with the public and policy makers and providing concrete plans and toolkits

yestonocovid.eu
#yestonocovid

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Yaneer Bar-Yam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @yaneerbaryam

26 Feb
What will happen with the new variants in the US?

Depends on what we do: Stay the same, or shut down to stop them.

Here are projections for a few states.

Projections are rough but the basic shape is sound.

Actions matter.

Starting from California.

1/ Image
Massachusetts

Florida

Michigan

Pennsylvania

2/ ImageImageImageImage
North Carolina

Louisiana

Indiana

Georgia

3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
26 Feb
With global case levels down to ~½ of peak, we’re seeing an increase in both green (“winning”) and yellow (“nearly there”) countries on EndCoronavirus.org/countries.

Now 31 green countries, reporting very low numbers of new cases. Congratulations! ImageImageImageImage
Several countries in eastern Europe are now reporting resurgences. It is very likely that the new variants are playing a significant role in much of Europe. Image
US has reported significant progress over the last 2 months. Progress might be coming to a halt and possibly turning into a new increase. Test positivity and cases are both going back up recently. ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
25 Feb
How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?

Answer is riveting

Start with Dharabi, largest slum in Asia: Impressive community case finding, contact tracing, isolation, quarantine, communications, massive health and volunteer effort, lockdown, support.

1/ Image
COVID-19 Containment in Asia’s Largest Urban Slum Dharavi-Mumbai, India: Lessons for Policymakers Globally

by Mahaveer Golechha

link.springer.com/content/pdf/10…

2/ Image
“Dharavi, Asia’s largest and densely populated urban slum, has successfully contained the COVID-19 with its innovative public health policy response. The municipal administration called this model as “chasing the virus” rather than waiting for people to report it.

3/ Image
Read 33 tweets
22 Feb
Cases in Italy recently leveled off around 12,000 new cases per day, with cases increasing in Lombardia. Yesterday Italy reported 14,914 new cases and 251 deaths.

Today marks one year since Italy’s first reported covid death.
Czechia reports both increasing cases and deaths. Yesterday they reported 11,364 new cases and 184 deaths.

Comparing per capita case rates, Czechia is ~3.5x higher than the US.
US reports improvement in almost every state. Daily cases are down to ⅓ of peak, hospitalizations down to less than ½ of peak, and deaths 60% of peak.
Read 5 tweets
21 Feb
For the first time since July 2020, the United Kingdom has moved from “needs action” (red) to “nearly there” (yellow) on EndCoronavirus.org/countries.

Congrats! Keep going!
The 7-day averages for both daily cases and deaths have reached new highs in Brazil.

To investigate the effects of their vaccine, Brazil plans to vaccinate the entire population of Serrana, a city in Sao Paulo.

cnn.com/2021/02/17/ame…
Progress in Canada has slowed during this last week. Ontario, BC, Alberta, and Manitoba are no longer declining.

Yesterday Canada reported 3,083 new cases and 72 deaths.
Read 4 tweets
20 Feb
Snap Out of Your Pandemic Passivity.

"The rise of variants demands action. Here’s why we should join the ‘get-to-zero’ movement.

"The COVID-19 pandemic has gained an insidious advantage. Below the surface, the more infectious variants are rising.

thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"Put out the fire

"A pandemic (and COVID is mild one) is viral fire that burns down households, and communities.

2/
"In a real fire, citizens expect firefighters to do their job. While battling a blaze, they don’t suddenly roll up the hoses and tell homeowners they’d better learn how to live with this fire for now.

3/
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!