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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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26 Feb, 5 tweets, 3 min read
What will happen with the new variants in the US?

Depends on what we do: Stay the same, or shut down to stop them.

Here are projections for a few states.

Projections are rough but the basic shape is sound.

Actions matter.

Starting from California.

1/
Massachusetts

Florida

Michigan

Pennsylvania

2/
North Carolina

Louisiana

Indiana

Georgia

3/
Texas testing was disrupted due to the recent crisis, if we project past that we get what is attached.

Arizona now has only a few reported new variant cases. If they limit incoming travelers or quarantine them they could avoid a much larger surge.
Thanks to @brumatingturtle for making these figures!

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Feb
How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?

Answer is compelling

The big picture: Three things are important to stop the pandemic: Travel restrictions (International), travel restrictions (domestic), and strong local lockdowns where there are outbreaks

1/
It is time to recognize the scientific basis of India's success and give it its due. With the number of new cases in India leveling recently, the urgency is great to complete the elimination process so that a new surge does not occur.

2/ ImageImageImageImage
Should India join countries in Asia and Oceania in elimination, 50% of the world would become COVID free, and provide an example for emulation that is surely unexpected by western observers.

3/ Image
Read 16 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Feb
New Zealand identified one case of local transmission in Auckland and initiated a 7-day level 3 lockdown for the city.

nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
Vietnam continues to report decreasing case numbers after experiencing their largest outbreak of the pandemic in late January.

Yesterday they reported 5 cases: 4 were already in quarantine, 1 was imported and was placed in quarantine. Image
Australia reported 5 cases of local transmission since Melbourne lifted its 5 day lockdown. All were linked to the original hotel outbreak and were already quarantined when they were diagnosed. Image
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
27 Feb
A worrying trend is emerging: as many countries reported significant reductions in cases over the past several months, resurgences are beginning, and cases are creeping upward in recent weeks.

We’re likely seeing the beginning of the next “wave” of infections. Image
Possible causes include new variants, changes in government policy, changes in behavior, or all of the above.

What is clear from the data: attempting to open up and tolerate “low” levels of cases has failed over and over again.
There are few countries that are succeeding in keeping cases low but non-zero. South Korea and Japan are the most well-known examples.

Still, this strategy comes with a clear downside: they can not safely return to normalcy, unlike the countries succeeding with #ZeroCovid. Image
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
26 Feb
With global case levels down to ~½ of peak, we’re seeing an increase in both green (“winning”) and yellow (“nearly there”) countries on EndCoronavirus.org/countries.

Now 31 green countries, reporting very low numbers of new cases. Congratulations!
Several countries in eastern Europe are now reporting resurgences. It is very likely that the new variants are playing a significant role in much of Europe.
US has reported significant progress over the last 2 months. Progress might be coming to a halt and possibly turning into a new increase. Test positivity and cases are both going back up recently.
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
25 Feb
How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?

Answer is riveting

Start with Dharabi, largest slum in Asia: Impressive community case finding, contact tracing, isolation, quarantine, communications, massive health and volunteer effort, lockdown, support.

1/ Image
COVID-19 Containment in Asia’s Largest Urban Slum Dharavi-Mumbai, India: Lessons for Policymakers Globally

by Mahaveer Golechha

link.springer.com/content/pdf/10…

2/ Image
“Dharavi, Asia’s largest and densely populated urban slum, has successfully contained the COVID-19 with its innovative public health policy response. The municipal administration called this model as “chasing the virus” rather than waiting for people to report it.

3/ Image
Read 34 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
25 Feb
Germany has reported significant progress in 2021, bringing cases down to ~⅓ of peak. Over the last several days, that progress has slowed, and the 7-day averages for cases and deaths have flattened.

Yesterday they reported 5,764cases and 422 deaths.
Angela Merkel warned yesterday that Germany might be beginning a third wave due to new variants, and emphasized that the country “cannot afford ups and downs”.

reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Although the country as a whole has seen progress slow down, several regions are still reporting progress. Saarland, the smallest German state, is setting an example.
Read 6 tweets

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