With global case levels down to ~½ of peak, we’re seeing an increase in both green (“winning”) and yellow (“nearly there”) countries on EndCoronavirus.org/countries.

Now 31 green countries, reporting very low numbers of new cases. Congratulations!
Several countries in eastern Europe are now reporting resurgences. It is very likely that the new variants are playing a significant role in much of Europe.
US has reported significant progress over the last 2 months. Progress might be coming to a halt and possibly turning into a new increase. Test positivity and cases are both going back up recently.
Although progress in US has been significant, daily cases, deaths, and hospitalizations are still very high compared to earlier in the pandemic

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More from @yaneerbaryam

27 Feb
A worrying trend is emerging: as many countries reported significant reductions in cases over the past several months, resurgences are beginning, and cases are creeping upward in recent weeks.

We’re likely seeing the beginning of the next “wave” of infections. Image
Possible causes include new variants, changes in government policy, changes in behavior, or all of the above.

What is clear from the data: attempting to open up and tolerate “low” levels of cases has failed over and over again.
There are few countries that are succeeding in keeping cases low but non-zero. South Korea and Japan are the most well-known examples.

Still, this strategy comes with a clear downside: they can not safely return to normalcy, unlike the countries succeeding with #ZeroCovid. Image
Read 6 tweets
26 Feb
What will happen with the new variants in the US?

Depends on what we do: Stay the same, or shut down to stop them.

Here are projections for a few states.

Projections are rough but the basic shape is sound.

Actions matter.

Starting from California.

1/ Image
Massachusetts

Florida

Michigan

Pennsylvania

2/ ImageImageImageImage
North Carolina

Louisiana

Indiana

Georgia

3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
25 Feb
How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?

Answer is riveting

Start with Dharabi, largest slum in Asia: Impressive community case finding, contact tracing, isolation, quarantine, communications, massive health and volunteer effort, lockdown, support.

1/ Image
COVID-19 Containment in Asia’s Largest Urban Slum Dharavi-Mumbai, India: Lessons for Policymakers Globally

by Mahaveer Golechha

link.springer.com/content/pdf/10…

2/ Image
“Dharavi, Asia’s largest and densely populated urban slum, has successfully contained the COVID-19 with its innovative public health policy response. The municipal administration called this model as “chasing the virus” rather than waiting for people to report it.

3/ Image
Read 34 tweets
25 Feb
Germany has reported significant progress in 2021, bringing cases down to ~⅓ of peak. Over the last several days, that progress has slowed, and the 7-day averages for cases and deaths have flattened.

Yesterday they reported 5,764cases and 422 deaths.
Angela Merkel warned yesterday that Germany might be beginning a third wave due to new variants, and emphasized that the country “cannot afford ups and downs”.

reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Although the country as a whole has seen progress slow down, several regions are still reporting progress. Saarland, the smallest German state, is setting an example.
Read 6 tweets
22 Feb
Cases in Italy recently leveled off around 12,000 new cases per day, with cases increasing in Lombardia. Yesterday Italy reported 14,914 new cases and 251 deaths.

Today marks one year since Italy’s first reported covid death.
Czechia reports both increasing cases and deaths. Yesterday they reported 11,364 new cases and 184 deaths.

Comparing per capita case rates, Czechia is ~3.5x higher than the US.
US reports improvement in almost every state. Daily cases are down to ⅓ of peak, hospitalizations down to less than ½ of peak, and deaths 60% of peak.
Read 5 tweets
21 Feb
For the first time since July 2020, the United Kingdom has moved from “needs action” (red) to “nearly there” (yellow) on EndCoronavirus.org/countries.

Congrats! Keep going!
The 7-day averages for both daily cases and deaths have reached new highs in Brazil.

To investigate the effects of their vaccine, Brazil plans to vaccinate the entire population of Serrana, a city in Sao Paulo.

cnn.com/2021/02/17/ame…
Progress in Canada has slowed during this last week. Ontario, BC, Alberta, and Manitoba are no longer declining.

Yesterday Canada reported 3,083 new cases and 72 deaths.
Read 4 tweets

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