1-Israel
2-Oil
3-Counter-Terrorism / War on Terror
Are the broad categories that define U.S strategic interests in the region
Many have attempted to include the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in above list. Syria has been a case in point ==>
2-Israel & Oil are already secured enough
This has left counter terrorism or war on terror (WOT) as main rationale behind recent U.S interventions
Responsibility to Protect has been getting traction of late but as Syria’s case has shown it’s still work in progress in DC
3-Sep 11 of course capitulated War on Terror to the top of list behind recent U.S interventions in the region. While many may argue this was politically unavoidable in the case of Afghanistan, what about the more recent interventions to help defeat ISIS?
4-During the peak of ISIS’s rise to eminence, one can recall Governor of Texas openly warning on the radio about fighters of the group infiltrating the US southern border to cause mayhem inside the homeland
War on ISIS / Terror justified anything and everything then
5-War on Terror and ISIS was essentially seen as a preemptive war to stop Jihadists from attacking us back home
Incidentally, Nusra group is allowed to operate in Idlib & Syria because it is not seen as a group who is interested in attacking the U.S.
No WOT is needed there
6-Think of the billions of Dollars being spent on this war on terror and for what? To stop ISIS fighters from coming through Mexico as Texas’s Governor feared?
Truth is that the current U.S war on Terror in the region is out of habit and not necessity
7-What is also clear is that U.S interventions in the region have inertia build into them
Once the U.S engineers rationale to go in, it finds it very difficult to get out
Suddenly, getting out becomes very risky as cabal of think tanks & policy establishment types go to work
8-No matter the costs. No matter the results. No matter the progress made, a cabal of interventionists will work feverishly to make you think that reversing the intervention and exiting will produce a National Security disaster that will hurt the prestige of the US in the region
9-Those in the region who are out of power and who want in do their own part in pushing for US intervention in the hope of furthering their own cause. Such groups & their allies will add their own voices to the cabal who argue that the US must stay in the region or else
10-“U.S National Security” ought to be the only and sole objectives of any foreign military intervention
Based on this metric, the current rationale for being in the region is senseless
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#Russia ‘s military intervention in #Syria was arguably the decisive turning point that decided the war
Yet,
When did Damascus decide to reach out to Moscow?
Did Washington know?
More importantly, could the U.S have done anything to prevent the intervention
==>
2-As early as 2012, Damascus had become aware that the war posed an existential risk to the system. Messages were sent to key opposition leaders that unless the situation was soon brought under control, leadership will have no option but to reach to our "big allies"
3-When Damascus became convinced that opposition had no intention of rolling back the unfolding crisis, decision was made to reach out to the big allies. Initial communication with Moscow took place in 2012 via respective heads of security
#Syria ‘s Old-style Baathists versus Bashar Assad’s liberalization policies
One thing that old-style Baathists understood was that being in the Arab nationalist anti-Western resistance camp had to go hand in hand with economic self-sufficiency
Boy, were they right
2-Since late 1960’a & early 1970’s Eco Self-Sufficiency became the hallmark of of #Syria ‘s political & social economy
Promote local industry to conserve on foreign currency and imports
Promote local agriculture to provide food security & heavily subsidized basic food staples
3-While self-sufficiency may made sense politically, it was an inefficient system that misallocated resources and allowed heavy handed Govt meddling in nearly every facet of Economic life. Many times, #Syria ‘s Govt found itself in the business of running businesses
Head of #Syria State Security Housam Luca made a visit to Tafas in Daraa province (Yes, Daraa again)
Goal was to help calm restless citizens who have had a list of complaints against the state
Short Thread ==>
2-As #Syria ‘s Head of State Security Housam Luca finished speaking, local citizens in the crowd seemed to reply back with agitation and anger towards the officials present
3-Local Tafas / Daraa residents then ask one of their own to speak to Head of State security official and list their grievances that ranged from missing and imprisoned men to widowed mothers not able to find bread for their children
Sharing a personal story to highlight the near collapse in the standards of living of most citizens in #Syria
-My cousin’s husband passed away this morning in Aleppo. He was diagnosed with cancer 3 months ago. He was an Agricultural Engineer who had worked for ICARDA
==>
2-#Syria ‘s currency has lost so much value that local currency income l, assets or savings are nearly worthless
One dose of Chemotherapy for his cancer treatment was quoted at $3,000. Doctor told them they need at least 4-5 doses
This was an inconceivable amount for them
3-While chemotherapy is priced in US$ , local income in SYP to pay for the above is in free fall
Income 1
Family owns small apartment that it rents out. Rent? $30 a month (SYP 95,000)
Income 2
Son works at a local back. Salary? $35 a month (SYP 110k)
Since the crisis began, R.Salameh has repeatedly told the nation that his Eco & currency policies were consistent with what has long been asked of him by the Government
Is this true? What does he mean by this?
Answer is Yes and No
Here is why ==>
Every Central Bank operates on the basis of a mandate / remit given to it by the Government
Different countries have given different mandates to their Central Banks
Such differences emanate from specific historical experiences each nation & society had experienced in the past
The U.S was scarred by depression & significant market swings in early 1900’s and when its Central Bank (Fed) was formed, congress gave it a dual mandate:
“Maximum Economic Growth and stable prices”
Note how there is no mention of currency stability in the mandate