Thread by @DrJaredWesley

If you don't like wormholes, keep scrolling and bypass this thread.

Let's say Kenney wins his constitutional referendum (leaving aside that he'd need a big majority and substantial turnout, ~66%, to make it "overwhelming").

Then what? #ableg #abpoli

Let's say the 'yes' vote compels other governments to the negotiating table (which would be of their own volition, because the "Secession Reference" argument is entirely invalid).

Then what?

Let's say the federal government concedes and gives Alberta more transfer dollars (which is unlikely, given the Harper-era fiscal reforms already netted AB over $1B / year extra, the Trudeau govt bought TMX, reformed stabilization...).

Then what?

Let's say the extra funding won't be enough to satisfy Kenney, so the demands will escalate (involving threats to pull out of national programs like CPP and the CRA).

Then what?

Let's say the federal government gives more, but it still won't be enough to satisfy either the Premier of a growing number of increasingly frustrated Albertans in his base.

Then what?

Let's say we escalate, holding another referendum in conjunction with the 2023 provincial election, this time to pull out of CPP (maybe CRA and/or RCMP).

Then what?

Let's say Albertans agree to pull out of these programs (which goes against public opinion polling today).

Then what?

Let's say that none of this manages to increase the price of oil or address the government's revenue problems (which it won't, as it will only serve to distract us from that).

Then what?

Let's say this only further frustrates the UCP base (who realize, like many in Rust Belt states and Britain's Industrial Heartland, that bluster and firewalls don't lead to economic recovery).

Then what?

These are all contingencies, of course, depending to a great extent on who's in power in Alberta and Ottawa.

But they also depend a great deal upon how Albertans respond to this fall's referendum.

The 'yes' path leads us toward years of distractions and escalations, resulting in sizeable expenditures of Alberta taxpayers' money and the province's political capital. It's tough to see how it helps solve our fiscal crisis.

The 'no' path would force the Alberta government to reckon directly with its own fiscal mess, without the intergovernmental sideshow to distract us from important internal debates and choices. Negotiations with Ottawa would continue, beyond the cameras (where we often fare best).

This fall's constitutional referendum could prove a turning point in Alberta political history. Will voters choose anger and division? Or will they chose to say "no" to frivolous fed-prov forays, forcing the Premier to stay home & focus on deeper problems?