Thread by @TheLawyerCraig

Twitter seems to be responding to @CDCDirector comments stating that Covid-19 deaths in the United States are rising. I didn't hear the briefing, but I will comment on the contention that Covid-19 deaths are rising:

That contention is wrong. Deaths are not rising.

Thread🧵

It's first important to distinguish between date of death and date of reported death. The latter (inevitably) follows the former, but by how long? It depends. Sometimes a few days. Sometimes weeks. Sometimes months. Sometimes several months!

We have the normal reporting flow (days or weeks).

We have backlogs created in times of stress that take time to resolve (weeks to months).

We also have audits, death certificate matching, or just plain missed deaths (L.A. & Ohio recently) (potentially several months).

At any given time, any or all of these could be going on in different states, and to varying degrees.

Texas's deep freeze two weeks ago strangled reporting of many metrics, leading to small numbers, followed by larger numbers last week once the weather abated.

Virginia, on the other hand, is on Day 10 of death certificate processing for deaths that occurred during the post-holiday surge two months ago. They've "reported" more deaths in the last 10 days than they did in the previous 38 days! But these aren't "pipeline" (recent) deaths.

Solely removing these two states from the numbers (which I report nightly), we have the following 7-day averages for deaths:

15-21 Feb: 1740

22-28 Feb: 1494

We declined 14.1% week-over-week as of yesterday's data without those two (wonky reporting) states.

Again, these are reported numbers. Other states have cleared backlogs lately as well. This happens every time we have a major spike: things eventually subside, the states catch up.

What this means is that the spike was actually worse than the time when it was reported.

Given the fact that hospitalizations and ICU numbers have been on a consistent decline for nearly 7 weeks straight now, and % testing positive has declined week-over-week for 50 days in a row, it strains credulity to think that "actual, current" deaths are anything but lower.

However, excepting reporting artifacts, even *reported deaths* are declining.

(In fact, even with TX and VA included, yesterday was our lowest 7-day average since the first week of December)

To recap:

- No evidence current deaths are increasing

- Reported deaths also not increasing

- Cases have increased slightly, but tests have increased even more (% positive decreasing)

- Hospitalizations/ICUs decreasing consistently.

- Vaccines = increasing.

Tis good news!

PS: I'm no zealot, and I'm pragmatic enough to understand the political desire to "nudge" people toward safety. But I will forever maintain that it has the opposite effect. Absolute transparency with pleas for caution during this final stretch would be a better tact.

PPS: Imagine a politician saying this: "Trends are positive, and I'm asking for your help over these crucial next 60-90 days to put a lid on this thing once and for all. Let's look out for one another and stay safe as we transition back into pre-Covid life, . . . (1/2)

"which is coming soon. I can't tell you how much I'm looking forward to this summer. To family. To friends. To barbecues and hugs. The numbers are leading us to this outcome. Let's work together to keep it that way."

Seems better, no? (Even for the most skeptical citizens)