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3 Mar, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Virginia just posted another large chunk of Covid-19 deaths today, mostly backlog. VA's piecemeal backlog reporting is skewing the US's recent trends. Look at this:

2/20 - 3/3 (12 days): 2228 reported deaths (186/day)

12/30 - 2/19 (52 days): 2178 reported deaths (42/day)
Of course, as it states on its website, most of the recent reported deaths are matching death certificates from the holiday and post-holiday period (more than a month ago)

On the left, VA deaths by date of death. On the right VA deaths by report date:
Despite this, many headlines—and even the updates contained within—make no mention of pairing older deaths. Like this one:
wric.com/health/coronav…
And this one:
nbc12.com/2021/03/02/va-…
And this one: wtkr.com/news/coronavir…
Kudos to @WAVY_News, however, for including context in both the story and the headline:
wavy.com/news/virginia/…
No doubt people will pick up the generic "VA HIGHEST DEATHS EVER" and run with it.

What folks should be saying is, "Wow, December and January were even worse than we thought. Thank goodness things are looking up lately. Let's stay vigilant."

Be an informed data consumer!

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More from @TheLawyerCraig

Craig Profile picture
1 Mar
Twitter seems to be responding to @CDCDirector comments stating that Covid-19 deaths in the United States are rising. I didn't hear the briefing, but I will comment on the contention that Covid-19 deaths are rising:

That contention is wrong. Deaths are not rising.

Thread🧵
It's first important to distinguish between date of death and date of reported death. The latter (inevitably) follows the former, but by how long? It depends. Sometimes a few days. Sometimes weeks. Sometimes months. Sometimes several months!
We have the normal reporting flow (days or weeks).

We have backlogs created in times of stress that take time to resolve (weeks to months).

We also have audits, death certificate matching, or just plain missed deaths (L.A. & Ohio recently) (potentially several months).
Read 13 tweets
Craig Profile picture
9 Feb
Where does the US stand on #Covid19? Not a simple question. I tweet Covid data daily, and the trends have been positive for weeks. But I often get asked, “when is this over?” What about #b117? And seasonality? And the vaccines—shouldn’t they change the trajectory?

Thread
Full disclosure: I’m a realist guided by data but with a bias toward optimism. I also don’t give one tiny, insignificant shit about the political ramifications.

The overall takeaway is that we’re looking a hell of a lot better today than in November, December, and early January.
Covid deaths, by and large, will define the pandemic, so it’s easy to rely solely on that metric as a barometer for current success. But it’s a poor real-time bellwether. By now, everyone assessing the data (in good faith) should be aware that reported deaths lag other metrics.
Read 17 tweets
Craig Profile picture
8 Jan
@COVID19Tracking *Today’s #Covid19 Update Thread*
(tests, cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU, and % testing positive as of Today, 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, and 2 months ago—data from @COVID19Tracking)

UNITED STATES
(Thoughts and region-by-region breakdown in thread below) Image
@COVID19Tracking Today is the first day of the pandemic that the United States hit 4,000 reported deaths. It pushed our 7-day-average back to a new peak of 2,774.

The holiday reporting lull has left the building.
@COVID19Tracking Our 7-day-average for those currently in the ICU has now increased week-over-week for 100 days straight. Hospitalizations are at 102 days straight.

Both metrics have also been increasing at a higher percentage in a couple weeks since Christmas. Not a ton higher, but higher.
Read 5 tweets
Craig Profile picture
21 Dec 20
@COVID19Tracking *Today’s #Covid19 Update Thread*
(tests, cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU, and % testing positive as of Today, 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, and 2 months ago—data from @COVID19Tracking)

UNITED STATES
(Summary and region-by-region breakdown in thread below)
@COVID19Tracking Raw hospitalizations (non-7-day-averaged) have dropped for 3 days straight. That's the first time that's happened since October 2-4.
@COVID19Tracking California's share of hospitalizations and ICU numbers continues to climb. California comprises over half the hospitalization increase in the country and over 3/4 of the ICU increase.

It feels like we could see other-than-California peak within a week in both numbers.
Read 4 tweets
Craig Profile picture
24 Nov 20
@COVID19Tracking *Today’s #Covid19 Update Thread*
(tests, cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU, and % testing positive as of Today, 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, and 2 months ago—data from @COVID19Tracking)

UNITED STATES
(Summary and region-by-region breakdown in thread below)
@COVID19Tracking Reported average daily deaths seem to finally be showing the results of our high case counts (+ high % testing positive).

If the past is any guide, it runs at a ~21-day lag. We were in the mid-80k range 21 days ago. We're double that now. Not a great harbinger for mid-December.
@COVID19Tracking Happy to see a decent-sized drop in % testing positive today. I'll be happier still when we see smaller absolute percentages nationwide.
Read 16 tweets
Craig Profile picture
27 Oct 20
It is getting tiresome watching media, government, and other Twitter folks present erroneous numbers for certain states’ #Covid19 positive testing percentage.

Many of the Johns Hopkins percentages are flat wrong, and it's the denominator problem (again).

🧵THREAD🧵

1/
First, it’s important to know that these aren’t "Johns Hopkins' numbers." Their testing data is from @COVID19Tracking, who gets it from state websites.

But there are 3 options from which to choose the test number. Here are the definitions of each, in CTP’s priority order:

2/
1. "Encounters"

CTP's definition:

3/
Read 21 tweets

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