Based on the latest satellite data there are signs of #magma buildup. Over 30cm of rising is the highest seen so far in the area. This has caused scientists to add a potential scenario of a volcanic #eruption in the area west of Keilir mountain in #Reykjanes peninsula. #icemagma Image
This magma buildup is the likely cause of the #earthquake swarm over the past few days. Most likely location if #magma does reach the surface is behind Keilir and #lava would most likely flow only to uninhabited areas. Image
Potential #eruptions in the #Reykjanes peninsula are not explosive eruptions but rather basic lava eruptions - similar to the #Holuhraun eruption in 2014. The area is known for eruption periods, lasting 1-200 years, and calm periods lasting like this one for 800 years.
We will have an eruption there said Magnus Tumi, a volcanologist in an interview this evening - we just don't know if it happens tomorrow or in 100 years ... geological timespans are so relative 😄 Image
Based on historical eruptions in the area, the lava flow would be slow and could be avoided by people walking. The only potential issue to people might be related to the gasses emitted. Image
The average size of the lava flow is 10km2 and eruptions might last weeks or months. The start of the eruption would not be explosive and little ash would be emitted only potentially increasing a little if the rift reaches water/ocean. Image

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More from @gislio

3 Mar
Strong signs of a potential #volcano #eruption near #Keilir on #Reykjanes peninsula. Scientists reporting #earthquake patterns that are similar to the start of an eruption. Eruption likely to start within the next few hours. Image
The ICAO airport code for @kefairport and #Reykjavik airport have been raised to Orange - which indicates a high likelihood of imminent eruption. Rescue teams are being put on standby. Coast Guard @gaeslan helicopter to fly over the area shortly. Press briefing scheduled for 1600
This potential eruption is not expected to cause any damage to infrastructure and towns/cities according to @almannavarnir. The eruption has not yet started and is far away from habited places.
Read 13 tweets
2 Mar
Many have asked about what effects a potential #eruption in the #Reykjanes peninsula on @kefairport & #ReykjavikAirport. Based on standard procedure all airports in 120km radius from a #volcano get closed immediately and then reopened when @Vedurstofan issues ash advisory Image
The @kefairport location is optimal, even though it may be close to the potential eruption site since it is located on higher ground, greatly reducing the threat from lava flows. Depending on the magnitude of the eruption planes might have to change flight paths on arrival. Image
Given how few flights there are daily to/from #Iceland this is not expected to cause major issues. The Civil Aviation Authority @isavia is going through its response plans and preparing for the potential effects of an eruption. Image
Read 4 tweets

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