Quarterly earnings reports are a catalyst in rewarding short term-ism, introducing volatility, soaking up management time & distorting strategic focus.
Against the lifespan of a company, 3 months is inconsequential, yetyou're expected to deliver a certain outcome.
You're facing return hungry shareholders & Wall Street analysts with massive expectations.
It's the equivalent of stepping on a scale every single day on a diet.
The worst part of short term-ism are the incentives that accompany it.
Many exec compensation schemes are tied to targets short term in nature.
Rewarded for a higher EPS?
Ah, let's go out & trigger a buyback
Rewarded for scale?
Ah, less do some value dilutive M&A
If there's one thing I've seen spending time of time with management teams
C-suite execs are terrible judges of their own performance. They consistently overestimate the company's ability to meet ambitious targets & overrate the role they play in driving a company's performance.
I would have longer windows between detailed reporting, regular updates on 1/2 headline metrics and more focus on the roadmap towards milestones... as opposed to an obsession with adjustments to an EPS line which we all know is bullshit & dressed up for reporting.
If anyone is interested there's a great chart we would include in every investment banking pitch deck covering a company worth checking out
It's company earnings forecast vs. wall street guidance. Basically a measure of how well the company is able to communicate to the market
This is an example. Many analysts are pretty bad at forecasting. They will say management is terrible at communicating. They're both right.
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Instead of borrowing money from a bank, a company (or government) will borrow from investors. So investors will give the company money & in exchange they get paid interest (called coupons)
Fancy term for the IOU is "bond issuance"
I'm an investor, how do the mechanics work?
Company sells you a bond for $100 and promises you 5% every year for 3 years. They also pay you $100 at the end.
Yr 1: $5
Yr 2: $5
Yr 3: $5 + $100
That's $115 (or a 15% return) after 3 years. Right?
The good side of debt. How using leverage & borrowed money can benefit you [Thread]
Debt is demonized thanks to many people using borrowings to fund consumption expenditure.
Borrowing cash to fund sneakers, savanna & sushi - bad debt. Using a loan to boost your company and increase revenue - good debt.
Debt as a source of investment capital can be powerful
If you purchased a house, chances you structured a leveraged buyout (LBO). You contribute a small deposit & use the bank's financing to purchase the house. You repay the bank across the next 20 years.
After 20 years, your house is worth more than you paid for it. An example:
Few things worth keeping an eye on in the next few weeks:
1. Increasing US Treasury yields & 10-2 spreads 2. $TSLA as an indicator for sentiment 3. Retail investor volatility 4. Discounts on IPO issuances 5. M&A premia ++ volumes 6. Crypto adopting by institutions
1. Surging yields
COVID delayed inevitable reflation trade. Inflation expectations are ticking up. Will rising yields trigger an equity market sell-off? Probably not- such a deep disconnect between valuations & fundamentals
BUT it will suffocate the MANY overleveraged companies
2. Bets on $TSLA
Some WILD writing on OTM put options - folks banking premiums that could smoke them if it goes badly. Nobody thinks gravity will kick-in.... until it does. It's also a retail favourite which makes it a great indicator. $800bn is an eye watering valuation.
Want to save a few hundred grand on a property? Here's how to hustle your dream house for cheaper [Thread]
Thread covers:
1. Get a grip on price trend 2. Drive asset price lower 3. Access cheaper financing 4. Reduce the acquisition leverage 5. Use a subsidy 6. Weigh up off plan purchases 7. Use a buy-side agent 8. Scrape historic data 9. Check "true" affordability 10. Leverage time
1. Price Trends
Luxury houses (>R1.5m) briefly lost value over the pandemic. Low value houses (<R250k) show the sharpest decline in inflation. Coastal properties hold up slightly better. Both free holds & sectional titles have slower price growth.