THREAD 🧵
Tectonic shifts in Russia's trade and exposure to global centers of economic gravity are happening quietly, but surely. In 2013, before Crimea and Western sanctions, 🇷🇺🇪🇺trade volume was 5x of 🇷🇺🇨🇳. Just 7 years after, trade with EU is only 2x bigger than with China. 1/
Tectonic shifts in Russia's trade and exposure to global centers of economic gravity are happening quietly, but surely. In 2013, before Crimea and Western sanctions, 🇷🇺🇪🇺trade volume was 5x of 🇷🇺🇨🇳. Just 7 years after, trade with EU is only 2x bigger than with China. 1/
2/🇪🇺share of 🇷🇺 trade:
2013 - 49.4%
2019 - 41.6%
2020 - 38.5%
2013 - 49.4%
2019 - 41.6%
2020 - 38.5%
3/ 🇨🇳 share of 🇷🇺 trade:
2013 - 10.5%
2019 - 16.7%
2020 - 18.3%
2013 - 10.5%
2019 - 16.7%
2020 - 18.3%
4/ Data of Federal Customs Service (in Russian) can be found here 👇 customs.gov.ru/folder/511?fbc…
5/ The ripple effects of new 🇪🇺🇺🇸 sanctions, different pace of post-pandemic recovery in 🇨🇳&🇪🇺, balkanization of global supply chains, and the Kremlin's desire to bring more natural resources (particularly oil&gas) to the market before it's too late will accelerate this trend.
6/ For more details, see our mid-2020 piece with my colleague @TUmarov for @CarnegieRussia. So far the trendline remains unchanged. carnegie.ru/2020/07/08/wil…
7/ We in @CarnegieRussia will continue to follow these important developments with stellar colleagues across various @CarnegieEndow global centers. More updates on China's rise as the center of economic&tech gravity in Eurasia (aka #PaxSinica) 👇 carnegie.ru/specialproject…
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