Another wk & the pace of party reg changers has barely slowed: 4,646 voters changed party reg in PA last wk, bringing YTD changers to over 39,000. While in first 6 wks of 2021 big trend was GOP to Other, this wk continued last wk's trend: folks came home to parties, just new ones
(for excessively long previous threads on topic, including important caveats re uneven data reporting, see👇)
Regions in blue quadrant👇 saw net losses to GOP & net gains to Dems. White quadrant saw net losses to both: distance above green line reflects frequency of loss from major parties to Other. Almost everywhere has seen rate of movement to Other slow in last 2 wks (SCPA is holdout)
Sharp eyes will notice 👆stats are not by county but aggregated REGIONS🤯[How did it take me this long?]
(For even more obsessively long thread on these regions & why they're grouped as they are, & what political trends have been in them, see 🧵
For last 2 wks, pattern of voters changing reg has really diverged by region, with central & western PA seeing both increased losses to Dems & increased gains to GOP—in contrast to prior 6 wks, when those regions saw net *losses* from GOP to Other, albeit not as fast as elsewhere
But that swing to GOP gains from registration changers in west & central PA is a tiny piece of the big picture of PA registratn changes: because those regions have relatively small #s of the extremely highly engaged voters motivated to formally change registr. While SEPA has LOTS
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It seems nationally there's some political stuff going on today & tomorrow, whatev, but here in Pittsburgh we are all only #onhere for the sudden news that we have a contested mayoral primary ahead: & all the reasons that's Actually a Good Thing (whoever wins!). Eg, 👇
For my part I am just on Team Democracy, & from that point of view am really hopeful this contested race may make progress in rectifying the severe voter registration deficit that COVID-19 falling in presidential year 2020 caused in Pittsburgh's most marginalized neighborhoods👇
I've been chewing over this substack post fr @danpfeiffer, bc on the one hand he hits *so many* important points & on the other it makes visible the huge gap between what "grassroots activsts" look like from 30,000 ft—even to best-intentioned observers—& the reality on the ground
I spent 2 h last night at the monthly mtg of a Dem women's group in a very red PA county. Two women founded the group in Dec 2016. 4 ys later they are plugging away, with a dozen+ people via zoom on a January mid-pandemic Monday, brainstorming recruitment for boro council races
Two years ago it was jarring to hear nationally amplified "Resistance" leaders proudly announce they were about to guide "their" groups into voter outreach: when the actual groups on the ground had been all-in to local/regional electoral action since 2017 democracyjournal.org/arguments/midd…
& he says it all nonchalant, like he doesn't realize that w this one banner he can summon to his side all the supervols he needs to campaign on whatever the heck msg he suggests, eternally loyal bc someone finally stopped undercuttng their lived truth of politcs in their communty
ok for anyone here who has not lived the yard signs wars 1st hand: Local volunteers everywhere passionately believe in the impact of yard signs. Dem campaign pros, esp since data-driven methods/metrics became gospel, largely don't. Here's the skeptic case:
1) @4st8 is always right about everything & especially this, and 2) I've been meaning to create a thread of examples of What Investing in Grounded Political Infrastructure Looks Like, & this is the shove I needed. Here goes! 1/~17,000
What do I mean by "grounded political infrastructure"? Infrastructure designed to be fueled by, make use of, & contribute to existng networks of connection. Because all organizing is reorganizing. & disconnected/dropped-in infrastructure won't be sustained scholars.org/contribution/l…
I feel I need to mention periodically the size of the gap btwn center-to-left political discourse, still debating Dem messaging & activists' slogans... & the reality of our actually-existing public sphere, where a shared FoxNews item re Fauci begging for caution over Xmas elicits
This is from a public, nominally non-political community Fb group in SWPA with over 50,000 members. It's lost cats & plumber recs & holiday charity drives. & this
I'm not cherry-picking replies here. 40+ people commented after the FoxNews item with Fauci urging caution over COVID was posted last night, and it's this all the way down
I don't know who needs to hear this but: the feeding frenzy currently underway over address lists to send postcards to voters in Georgia is evidence of a progressive volunteer universe that has been deeply misled about the levers of political change.
If you run a national "progressive" organization and are contributing to this, & not-incidentally driving up your engagement stats & goosing your own fundraising, shame on you. Whatever self-serving tale you're telling yourself about the greater good being advanced: inadequate
👇Both! 1)Very likely entire waste of time (v low impact of technique under best circumstances; least effective in cases of onslaught of other political info as will be here; meaningful targetng impossible given locally-ignorant actors generating lists etc