2/ Most investors know 1980s-era Coke was an example of untapped pricing power - but *why* was this the case?
Turns out Coke was subject to a 100-year-old bottling agreement that had fixed its syrup pricing at $1 per gallon... in perpetuity! (+ later adjustments for inflation)
3/ The turning point was 1986: that's when Doug Ivester invented the "49% solution," a scheme to acquire Coke's old US bottlers and install discretionary pricing for the first time ever
Not coincidentally, Buffett starts buying stock a year later
4/ Every 2 cent increase in Coke's royalty per serving would ultimately double net income... couple this with underpenetrated international markets (see the chart below - basically customer cohort curves circa 1987), and the rest is history!
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1/ A fun piece of tech history that I came across today: an online copy of Microsoft's 1986 IPO prospectus. At just 52 pages, a light piece of weekend reading!
2/ At its March 2006 launch, AWS was probably the 4th or 5th cloud service run by a Fortune 500 firm
HP launched its Flexible Computing Service in Nov 2005
Sun Grid went into beta in 2004
IBM launched "Linux Virtual Services" in 2002!
But AWS is the only one anybody remembers
3/ I'll focus on IBM here -
From the WSJ in *2002*: "Linux Virtual Services allows customers to run their own software on mainframes in IBM data centers and pay rates based largely on the amount of computing power they use"
Last year, I spent my winter holiday reading hundreds of pages of equity research from the 1999/2000 era, to try to understand what it was like investing during the bubble
A few people recently asked me for my takeaways. Here they are -
2/ Every document hereon comes from my former employer Bernstein Research's internal research archive, which extend back to 1994
Unfortunately, they're not available to the public (even Bernstein's client website cuts off at 2003), but happy to give more details if necessary
3/ LESSON #1: Everybody knew it was a bubble
Unfortunately, the quip "it's not a bubble if everyone says it is" just isn't true
Investors were comparing the internet sector to tulip mania as early as mid-98. Bernstein held an entire conference on it in June 99!
1/ In September 1993, then-Microsoft exec Nathan Myhrvold wrote his landmark memo "Road Kill on the Information Highway", laying out a dozen-ish predictions on the rise of the internet
27 years later, I think it's a super interesting case study. Let's evaluate the predictions -
2/ PREDICTION #1: The rise of a surveillance society - police bodycams, CCTV, 24/7 personal recording, and deepfakes
GRADE: A-
Pretty close!
3/ PREDICTION #2: Telecommuting, an end to the "tyranny of geography" and gerrymandering
GRADE: B-
Alas, the electoral college still matters today. The WFH prediction hits closer, but turns out it took two and a half decades + a pandemic to get things going
1/ One of the biggest macrohistorical tech trends that I feel like nobody talks about is the triumph of closed systems over open systems in the last 20 years
2/ Openness used to be the default. PCs beat mainframes, Windows beat Mac OS, the WWW beat AOL, etc.
As a result, industry literature from the 90s emphasized cooperation - Hal Varian's seminal 1999 book on internet economics devotes 70 pages to the art of standard setting alone
3/ Meanwhile in 2020, major platforms are closed by default
Today, you can't port your data between social networks - or for that matter, between clouds. iOS is obviously closed. And I don't even know what an open version of Uber would look like.
2/ This note was originally my boss Toni's idea, i.e. that I should finally put pencil to paper on all of the various tech / investing thoughts that had been floating around my head
The specific "maxims" are partly jokes, but hopefully with kernels of truth belying them
3/ "Predicting the future is easy, making money is hard"
This maxim seemed to get the most traction on Fintwit (and I really do believe it)...