1/ A fun piece of tech history that I came across today: an online copy of Microsoft's 1986 IPO prospectus. At just 52 pages, a light piece of weekend reading!

Some takeaways from my skim -

lannigan.org/pdf/Microsoft_…
2/ No surprise, valuations were still in a whole other world back then

Microsoft IPOed with $140M in 1985 revenues (growing 40% per annum), and 30% operating margins

Yet the IPO market cap was $520M... aka ~3x forward sales, or ~15x forward *earnings*
3/ Microsoft's 1985 revenues: 54% systems, 38% applications, and 8% hardware & books

Here's a 1-paragraph mention of Windows, a recent GUI "extension of MS-DOS"

"It is too early in the life of Windows to determine what level of acceptance it will attain in the marketplace"
4/ A tidbit on the ongoing lawsuit by Seattle Computer Products over the invention of MS-DOS (which Bill Gates famously bought and flipped from SCP to IBM in 6 months in 1981)

The potential judgment: 10%+ of Microsoft's market cap and the loss of their biggest revenue line item
5/ Capital-light scaling - Incredibly, Bill Gates and Paul Allen would personally still own 70% of Microsoft post-IPO. No dilution here...

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Corry Wang

Corry Wang Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @corry_wang

10 Jan
1/ Thoughts on the Myth of the "First Mover"

This thread by @danrose stirred something I've been thinking about for a while - the myth of first mover advantage

To this day, most people assume Amazon Web Services was the first cloud computing service. This isn't quite true
2/ At its March 2006 launch, AWS was probably the 4th or 5th cloud service run by a Fortune 500 firm

HP launched its Flexible Computing Service in Nov 2005
Sun Grid went into beta in 2004
IBM launched "Linux Virtual Services" in 2002!

But AWS is the only one anybody remembers
3/ I'll focus on IBM here -

From the WSJ in *2002*: "Linux Virtual Services allows customers to run their own software on mainframes in IBM data centers and pay rates based largely on the amount of computing power they use"

wsj.com/articles/SB102…

Sounds like the cloud to me!
Read 9 tweets
2 Jan
1/ Lessons From The Tech Bubble:

Last year, I spent my winter holiday reading hundreds of pages of equity research from the 1999/2000 era, to try to understand what it was like investing during the bubble

A few people recently asked me for my takeaways. Here they are - Image
2/ Every document hereon comes from my former employer Bernstein Research's internal research archive, which extend back to 1994

Unfortunately, they're not available to the public (even Bernstein's client website cuts off at 2003), but happy to give more details if necessary
3/ LESSON #1: Everybody knew it was a bubble

Unfortunately, the quip "it's not a bubble if everyone says it is" just isn't true

Investors were comparing the internet sector to tulip mania as early as mid-98. Bernstein held an entire conference on it in June 99! ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
21 Dec 20
1/ In September 1993, then-Microsoft exec Nathan Myhrvold wrote his landmark memo "Road Kill on the Information Highway", laying out a dozen-ish predictions on the rise of the internet

27 years later, I think it's a super interesting case study. Let's evaluate the predictions -
2/ PREDICTION #1: The rise of a surveillance society - police bodycams, CCTV, 24/7 personal recording, and deepfakes

GRADE: A-

Pretty close!
3/ PREDICTION #2: Telecommuting, an end to the "tyranny of geography" and gerrymandering

GRADE: B-

Alas, the electoral college still matters today. The WFH prediction hits closer, but turns out it took two and a half decades + a pandemic to get things going
Read 12 tweets
28 Nov 20
1/ One of the biggest macrohistorical tech trends that I feel like nobody talks about is the triumph of closed systems over open systems in the last 20 years
2/ Openness used to be the default. PCs beat mainframes, Windows beat Mac OS, the WWW beat AOL, etc.

As a result, industry literature from the 90s emphasized cooperation - Hal Varian's seminal 1999 book on internet economics devotes 70 pages to the art of standard setting alone Image
3/ Meanwhile in 2020, major platforms are closed by default

Today, you can't port your data between social networks - or for that matter, between clouds. iOS is obviously closed. And I don't even know what an open version of Uber would look like.
Read 4 tweets
1 Sep 20
I can't post the whole report, but by popular demand, here are a few additional excerpts from my farewell note at Bernstein:

(1/x)
2/ This note was originally my boss Toni's idea, i.e. that I should finally put pencil to paper on all of the various tech / investing thoughts that had been floating around my head

The specific "maxims" are partly jokes, but hopefully with kernels of truth belying them
3/ "Predicting the future is easy, making money is hard"

This maxim seemed to get the most traction on Fintwit (and I really do believe it)...
Read 13 tweets
3 Jan 20
Today's most interesting thing: a Hacker News thread from 2010 on tech predictions for 2020 news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681

I count 95 predictions in total. A casual inspection suggests maybe... 30-ish were ultimately correct in some capacity?

So a ~32% hit rate. Predictions are hard!
Some winners in the thread:
- The 2010s become the post-PC decade; smartphones take over emerging markets
- Moore's law decelerates below 11 nm
- Social network analysis, data mining, and the "politics of information" become a core liberal issue
- Elon Musk "makes some big waves"
A sample of the many, many losers:
- eBooks displace traditional books
- A new desktop OS challenges Windows
- Augmented reality takes off
- Ubiquitous computing / RFID takes off
- Google commoditizes the telcos
- Facebook becomes the next Myspace
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!