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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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4 Mar, 6 tweets, 3 min read
📍~64% MORE SEVERE—The already more contagious #B117 variant from 🇬🇧 is now found to increase risk of #COVID19 hospitalization by 64% versus other strains, says Denmark’s 🇩🇰 CDC. Denmark sequences every cases—their data is the best, & now most worrisome.🧵 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2) Notably, “The adjusted odds ratio was increased in all strata of age and calendar time.” (Regardless of time period & regardless of age group).
3) Conclusion: “Infection with B.1.1.7 was associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation compared with other lineages.”

➡️ “This finding may have serious public health impact in countries with spread of B.1.1.7”
4) Most recent data from England (where #B117 is near fully dominant) suggests that there may be some unique effects of B117 on likelihood of kids infections. See thread 🧵 of evidence.
5) Another study from Denmark CDC... 3 million adults and study of households with vs without kids! Let that sink in how Epic of a huge study that is...
6) #B117 is dominating France now— worse, it’s highest now in children ages 0-9!!

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
6 Mar
⚠️VERY WORRIED FOR FLORIDA/US—More contagious #B117 is rising quickly, & exponentially replacing the old dying #SARSCoV2 common strain. B117 affects kids, & 64% more severe. B117 now over 40%—dominant in days. A new surge is coming. Florida inaction= Florida ➡️ US surge. #COVID19 Image
2) Been watching this B117 situation for 2 months. We already saw very worrisome signs in Miami Dade this week.
3) CDC director was warning about US surge looming because of #B117 too.
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
6 Mar
HORRIFYING #COVID19 death curve in one of wealthiest cities in Brazil— Porto Alegre is capital of Rio Grande do Sul— with many top-notch hospitals with better rating than most US🏥. And their health system still collapsed under #P1.

Imagine now rest of 🇧🇷.

(HT @alexaguiarpoa) Image
2) No need to imagine.. here is what is now going on. 17 capital cities now at 100% icu capacity. Image
3) Brazil has been now inundated by #P1 which now dominates #COVID19 in the country. It is possibly the most infectious variant seen to date.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
6 Mar
CATACLYSMIC—Hospitals at 100% ICU capacity in 17 cities in Brazil.

“They are very traumatized."

“Very serious”

Brazil 🇧🇷 hits a daily record for #COVID19 deaths as hospitals verge on near collapse under new wave, as more contagious #P1 variant spreads.
2) I cannot emphasize enough how horrible the situation is in Brazil. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3) The situation is so dire in Brazil now. And the #P1 variant may just be the most contagion variant seen to date. See thread 🧵
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Mar
📍STARK WARNING—“Whatever #SARSCoV2 variants summit that peak could be a considerably bigger problem than any variants that we know”—with “any combinations of increased transmissibility, altered virulence and/or ⬆️ capacity to escape population immunity.”
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2) “The emergence & rapid rise in prevalence of three independent #SARSCoV2 '501Y lineages' #B117 #B1351 #P1 has prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionarily capacity to adapt to both rising population immunity and public health interventions such as vaccines & distancing.”
3) “Viruses giving rise to 501Y lineages have, presumably under intense natural selection following a shift in host environment, independently acquired multiple unique & convergent mutations. As a consequence all have gained properties that likely complicate control of #COVID19.”
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Mar
💡EFFECTIVE—Single-dose Oxford–AstraZeneca #COVID19 vaccine followed by a 12-week booster. Vaccine efficacy was significantly higher at 81·3% after two standard doses given at an interval of >=12 weeks, versus 55·1% when doses <6 weeks apart. Good news! 🧵
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
2) “findings were supported by immunogenicity studies done in participants who were younger than 55 years, showing anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG antibody responses more than two-fold higher in those who had a dose interval of >=12 weeks than in those who had an interval of <6 weeks”
3) “Notably, efficacy against any nucleic acid amplification test-positive cases, including symptomatic and asymptomatic or unknown cases, was 63·9% (46·0 to 75·9) after a single standard dose, suggesting the possibility of reducing viral transmission.”
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Mar
JAPAN 🇯🇵 WARNS OF POTENTIAL “FOURTH WAVE”—Over 230 cases of highly infectious variant strains of the novel coronavirus have been confirmed in in Japan. Experts warning of a potential "fourth wave" should they continue to spread across the country. #COVID19
english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/03/0…
2) Here is one of the new Japan outbreaks of #B117 —linked to a school for kids under 10. This matches a lot of other trends on elevated B117 risk in kids.
3) Japan’s warning on #B117 potentially triggering another surge also matches what CDC director warns about B117 and a new surge in US too. See 🧵
Read 7 tweets

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