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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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4 Mar, 10 tweets, 6 min read
📍MORE KIDS PER HOUSEHOLD ➡️ MORE RISK OF #COVID19: Danish study of 3 million adults—Increasing number of children, means much higher risk of #SARSCoV2 in adults household members. By high much?

📌2 young kids—13% ⬆️ risk

📌3+ young kids—42% ⬆️ risk
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2) What about families with young kids but not older kids (age >6)? 31% ⬆️ increased risk

What about families with older kids but no young kids? Again, 31% ⬆️ increased risk.
3) Okay, what if we just look at households with young kids and no older kids? How does 2 or 3+ young kids compare versus 1 young kid?

📌Adults in households with 2 young kids: 22% ⬆️ risk of #COVID19

📌Adults in households with 3+ young kids: 54% ⬆️ risk of #COVID19
4) The above analysis of 3 million Danish adults (LET THAT SINK IN HOW HUGE IT IS!!!) avoids the problem of under diagnosis of #COVID19 in kids. See example below. Underdiagnosis in kids led to many false reassurances previously.
5) Let’s visualize the Danish results this way...

MORE KIDS ==> MORE ADULT #COVID19 INFECTIONS, regardless of the age of kids!

More kids = more infection risk, period.
6) We owe a lot to Denmark CDC @SSI_dk — without them, so much rich data on the pandemic wouldn’t be available. Denmark 🇩🇰 CDC just reported this other striking finding for #B117 variant and hospitalization today too. Huge, since #B117 is maybe implicated in a lot of kids cases.
7) #B117 is becoming a menace in kids. In England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 where it is dominant.
8) also pernicious is that kids have same viral load and adults - and moreover, asymptomatic kids have equal viral load as symptomatic (not true in adults)... thus giving kids extra silent spreader ability.
9) French nationwide data also finds the highest prevalence of #B117 in kids age 0-9, supporting the increased effects of B117 variant in pediatric populations.
10) Lessons on schools - when they are open, teachers and students get infected faster than general population. Once schools closed, students and teachers cases plummet while General pop continues to rise. Night and day.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
6 Mar
⚠️VERY WORRIED FOR FLORIDA/US—More contagious #B117 is rising quickly, & exponentially replacing the old dying #SARSCoV2 common strain. B117 affects kids, & 64% more severe. B117 now over 40%—dominant in days. A new surge is coming. Florida inaction= Florida ➡️ US surge. #COVID19 Image
2) Been watching this B117 situation for 2 months. We already saw very worrisome signs in Miami Dade this week.
3) CDC director was warning about US surge looming because of #B117 too.
Read 11 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
6 Mar
HORRIFYING #COVID19 death curve in one of wealthiest cities in Brazil— Porto Alegre is capital of Rio Grande do Sul— with many top-notch hospitals with better rating than most US🏥. And their health system still collapsed under #P1.

Imagine now rest of 🇧🇷.

(HT @alexaguiarpoa) Image
2) No need to imagine.. here is what is now going on. 17 capital cities now at 100% icu capacity. Image
3) Brazil has been now inundated by #P1 which now dominates #COVID19 in the country. It is possibly the most infectious variant seen to date.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
6 Mar
CATACLYSMIC—Hospitals at 100% ICU capacity in 17 cities in Brazil.

“They are very traumatized."

“Very serious”

Brazil 🇧🇷 hits a daily record for #COVID19 deaths as hospitals verge on near collapse under new wave, as more contagious #P1 variant spreads.
2) I cannot emphasize enough how horrible the situation is in Brazil. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3) The situation is so dire in Brazil now. And the #P1 variant may just be the most contagion variant seen to date. See thread 🧵
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Mar
📍STARK WARNING—“Whatever #SARSCoV2 variants summit that peak could be a considerably bigger problem than any variants that we know”—with “any combinations of increased transmissibility, altered virulence and/or ⬆️ capacity to escape population immunity.”
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2) “The emergence & rapid rise in prevalence of three independent #SARSCoV2 '501Y lineages' #B117 #B1351 #P1 has prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionarily capacity to adapt to both rising population immunity and public health interventions such as vaccines & distancing.”
3) “Viruses giving rise to 501Y lineages have, presumably under intense natural selection following a shift in host environment, independently acquired multiple unique & convergent mutations. As a consequence all have gained properties that likely complicate control of #COVID19.”
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Mar
💡EFFECTIVE—Single-dose Oxford–AstraZeneca #COVID19 vaccine followed by a 12-week booster. Vaccine efficacy was significantly higher at 81·3% after two standard doses given at an interval of >=12 weeks, versus 55·1% when doses <6 weeks apart. Good news! 🧵
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
2) “findings were supported by immunogenicity studies done in participants who were younger than 55 years, showing anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG antibody responses more than two-fold higher in those who had a dose interval of >=12 weeks than in those who had an interval of <6 weeks”
3) “Notably, efficacy against any nucleic acid amplification test-positive cases, including symptomatic and asymptomatic or unknown cases, was 63·9% (46·0 to 75·9) after a single standard dose, suggesting the possibility of reducing viral transmission.”
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Mar
JAPAN 🇯🇵 WARNS OF POTENTIAL “FOURTH WAVE”—Over 230 cases of highly infectious variant strains of the novel coronavirus have been confirmed in in Japan. Experts warning of a potential "fourth wave" should they continue to spread across the country. #COVID19
english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/03/0…
2) Here is one of the new Japan outbreaks of #B117 —linked to a school for kids under 10. This matches a lot of other trends on elevated B117 risk in kids.
3) Japan’s warning on #B117 potentially triggering another surge also matches what CDC director warns about B117 and a new surge in US too. See 🧵
Read 7 tweets

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