Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has been a very common ways for institutions gets get exposure to #Bitcoin without having to think about custody or owning the underlying asset. It's currently trading as a steep discount to NAV (almost -12%). What does this mean? Thread time👇
The Grayscale Trust owns bitcoins and issues shares in proportion to the bitcoins owned. The Net Asset Value (NAV) is the value of the bitcoins owned by the trust. Investors can then buy shares in the trust as a way of getting exposure to #Bitcoin's price movements
Theoretically the value of the shares should remain proportional to the the price of #Bitcoin. However, because there is no way to arbitrage the difference in Bitcoin's price with the price of GBTC, the value of the fund can drift away from its NAV
Historically the trust has traded as a large premium (as high as 132% over NAV with a median of 30% over NAV) because investors were willing to pay more to have easier access to Bitcoin's price movements. It was also an easy way to get #Bitcoin exposure in retirement accounts
So why the sudden discount? Well GBTC now has competition: MicroStrategy ($MSTR) is a new way of getting exposure to #Bitcoin (because the company owns a lot of it) and MicroStrategy does not have a 2% yearly management fee like the Grayscale Trust
Skybridge Bitcoin Fund is another example of a competing fund that gives investors exposure to #Bitcoin without buying the underlying asset (and with lower fees). Also a Bitcoin ETF has been launched in Canada.
The increasing competition, high fees, and inability to arbitrage away premiums (or discounts) to NAV means that GBTC is vulnerable in down swings in Bitcoin's price where the rush for an easy way to get Bitcoin exposure diminishes.
It is fairly unlikely that the discount to NAV for GBTC can become too deep because there is the possibility that in the near future (say 1-2 years) the Grayscale Trust becomes an ETF itself, where premiums and discounts to NAV are more easily arbitraged
Under the circumstance that GBTC becomes an ETF, those holding at a discount to its net assets would be getting a "free" 10% return vs just holding #Bitcoin itself. This possibility creates some protection for the fund.
If, on the other hand, the trust does not pursue a path to becoming an ETF and simply continues to collect 2% fees on its assets under management forever, it could potentially trade at a very steep discount to NAV.
Here is the historical premium (and recent discount) to NAV:

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More from @real_vijay

1 Feb
Buoyed by their success in assailing Wall Street hedge funds, the legion of retail investors who are part of the Wall Street Bets movement #WSB have turned their attention to the silver market.

Silver futures are already up 9%. How is this going to end?

Time for a thread 👇
Unlike GameStop ($gme) which is worth billions, the above ground silver market is worth almost 1.5 Trillion (2018 estimate). This is not to mention the massive derivatives market on top of the silver spot market. A short squeeze will be much harder to achieve, so why bother? 👇
It is believed that the silver market is highly manipulated by Wall Street and that the market is shorted by many factors more than actual silver that exists above ground. By trying to corner silver, especially physical, #WSB hopes to explode Wall Street's machinations.
Read 12 tweets
30 Jan
@RayDalio is one of the great investors of our time and he has begun thinking about #Bitcoin. He penned a thoughtful piece on his concerns about Bitcoin and was hoping to get responses, point-by-point.

Ray, here are my responses to your points (screenshotted) in a thread: 👇
Never in the history of the world had it been possible to transfer value between distant peoples without relying on a trusted intermediary, such as a bank or government - until 2009, with the invention of #Bitcoin.

You are correct in your summation of its significance, Ray.
You ask what demand could #Bitcoin have and this is a deep question. It's not a complete answer but I will refer you to a thread on valuation frameworks for Bitcoin that I previously wrote:

Read 29 tweets
19 Nov 20
In the global family of financial assets, gold is #Bitcoin's closest cousin. They are both non-sovereign monetary goods valued for their superior monetary properties (relative to fiat).

However, the ownership distribution of these close cousins is very different. A thread👇
A very large fraction of gold is owned as jewelry (dominated by India) and (ironically) by global central banks. Investment usage in the form of bullion is the next dominant usage and this, in turn, comes in large part through demand from gold ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). ImageImage
Much of the jewelry demand for gold is actually use as an ostentatious store-of-value. This is particularly so in India.

However, outside of India, there is very little retail demand for gold as a store of value, especially among younger savers in Western nations (millennials). Image
Read 11 tweets
18 Nov 20
At this stage in the 2016 #bitcoin bull market cycle, the price dropped about 29%, which in today's terms would be a fall to a bit below $13,000.

Is it possible we have a correction like this before taking the all time high? Yes.

However...
This cycle is clearly being driven more by institutions who generally have much stronger hands than retail buyers.

For instance MicroStrategy has stated their purchase of #Bitcoin is a long term allocation - those bitcoins have been taken off the order book indefinitely.
The larger institutional interest may help dampen volatility in this cycle. Institutions are not looking at #Bitcoin to seek returns of 10 or 20%. They're looking for an asymmetric bet. When they take a position they're looking for 10 or 20x upside. They are also patient.
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov 20
There are four main valuation frameworks for #Bitcoin and I wanted to summarize them with a target valuation that one would assign if one subscribed to that framework.

Thread 👇
1) Bitcoin's rise is equivalent to the Tulip Mania. It has no real comparative advantage to any existing monetary good or to the current fiat monetary system and is a bubble that will eventually pop.

Long term target price: $0.
2) Bitcoin is a new monetary technology whose appeal is largely limited to technologically savvy and libertarian minded people who can tolerate its volatility, which will be a permanent feature of its existence going forward.

Long term target price: $10,000 - $100,000
Read 7 tweets
15 Oct 20
1/ @Facebook, @Twitter and @Google have all built internal tools to implement systematic censorship. The tools are little different to the tools used by China's authoritarian government. They may not be used as frequently (yet) but they are no less chilling.
2/ Large tech companies have been complicit in censorship for a long time. When I was at Google I was asked to implement tools to censor news in China

3/ As Silicon Valley's largest companies replace legacy media as the primary gateway for information dissemination they have become dangerously powerful in shaping what can and can't be said online.
Read 6 tweets

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