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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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6 Mar, 12 tweets, 4 min read
@libresdecovid, the Spanish grassroots campaign for #ZeroCovid, has launched the #ZeroCovidChallenge.

Record a 20-30 second video saying why ZeroCovid is necessary and should be implemented in your community.

Here are the first videos:

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
8 Mar
Portugal continues toward zero!

The 7 day average for Portugal is under 800, roughly 1/16 of peak. ImageImage
Progress is going well in most regions,

Algarve, Alentejo, in the south, down to 30 per day, close to contact tracing control range.

Centro 120
Norte 200
Lisbon 400

The Azores 10, up from 5.
Madeira 180 but increasing

Intensify case finding to accelerate the decline. ImageImage
Italy’s resurgence continues. Cases are now up to ⅔ of peak, and daily deaths have recently increased.

Yesterday they reported 23,633 cases and 307 deaths. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
7 Mar
A week and a half ago we put out rough projections of cases including the B117 variant in the US

What has happened since then and what should we expect next?

Updates on each state

Starting from California--which is following the curve of inaction

@brumatingturtle Image
[Blue is projection, Black is actual (reported)]

Massachusetts--significantly worse

Florida--roughly the same

Michigan--significantly worse

Pennsylvania--roughly the same

2/ ImageImageImageImage
[Blue is projection, Black is actual (reported)]

North Carolina--perhaps a bit less (looks like no variant)

Louisiana--roughly tracking

Indiana--a bit higher

Georgia--significantly worse

3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
4 Mar
We are tracking Portugal’s continued progress now down to almost 1/20 of peak.

Over the most recent week Portugal reported 6,500 cases, down from 10,500 the week before, a 38% decline. ImageImageImage
Almost all regions are going down well and consistently across regions. ImageImage
The Azores are under 10 per day.

It would help if they report separately imported, quarantined and community transmission cases. A recent slight increase is otherwise unexplained.

They are very close to reaching the goal of ZeroCovid! Image
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
3 Mar
Despite being hit very hard throughout all of 2020, the 7-day averages for both daily cases and daily deaths reach new highs in Brazil.
Finland imposes a state of emergency order, allowing government officials to impose new restrictions to slow the spread of new variants.

They are currently averaging 560 cases and 2 deaths per day.

reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Sweden’s response continues to be a failure among Scandinavian countries despite abandoning the herd immunity strategy.

New evidence points to intentional hiding of earlier deaths in school age children with 68% increase in excess mortality.

sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/c…
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
2 Mar
Significant progress is being made in Spain.

They are now averaging 8,000 cases per day (almost ⅕ of peak) and 290 deaths per day (~⅓ of peak). Well done! ImageImage
This progress is fairly uniform across regions. Valenciana, La Rioja, and Extremadura are improving rapidly. ImageImageImage
As new ‘waves’ are beginning in much of the world, now is the time to double down on containment efforts.

Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
1 Mar
Democratic leaders criticize Biden administration's "outmoded" guidance COVID-19 spread

"A group of House Democratic leaders are questioning the the Biden administration's guidance on aerosol transmission which they say relies on "outmoded" science.

1/
cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-…
"In a letter to White House COVID response chief Jeff Zients, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky and acting Labor secretary Al Stewart, four House committee chairs say they have "serious questions" about adequacy of CDC's guidance on workplace protection from aerosol transmission

2/
"For the last two weeks, scientists, experts and unions have been prodding the administration to be more specific about guidance on exposure to small aerosol particles that carry COVID-19, which they say the CDC's official guidelines downplay.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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