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🇬🇧 Global Britain 🌍🌎🌏
So much happened in March!
Yes we finally saw the #CPTPP agreement on the last day of the month, but did you catch all the other things that happened, the deals that were signed, #Globalbritain in action, on the other 30 days?
Quick rundown thread 🧵
So much happened in March!
Yes we finally saw the #CPTPP agreement on the last day of the month, but did you catch all the other things that happened, the deals that were signed, #Globalbritain in action, on the other 30 days?
Quick rundown thread 🧵
March 1st
The UK signed a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, related to partnership on the Future Combat Air System.
The agreement was a "Declaration of Intent", with the next steps being a feasibility study into the partnership.
english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2023…
The UK signed a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, related to partnership on the Future Combat Air System.
The agreement was a "Declaration of Intent", with the next steps being a feasibility study into the partnership.
english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2023…
March 2nd
The annual Soft Power rankings were revealed at a conference in London - where the UK retained its spot at the top of the global rankings, 2nd only to the USA.
softpower.brandfinance.com/2023/globalsof…
The annual Soft Power rankings were revealed at a conference in London - where the UK retained its spot at the top of the global rankings, 2nd only to the USA.
softpower.brandfinance.com/2023/globalsof…
1/ At the end of the first quarter of 2023, I’m proud of the action we have taken to:
➡️halve inflation
➡️grow the economy
➡️reduce debt
➡️cut waiting lists
➡️stop the boats
This is our focus. Just this week we’ve...
➡️halve inflation
➡️grow the economy
➡️reduce debt
➡️cut waiting lists
➡️stop the boats
This is our focus. Just this week we’ve...
2/....set out our plan to tackle anti-social behaviour.
I was in Chelmsford on Monday talking to police officers about how the plan will clamp down on offenders and make sure they are swiftly punished – so we can restore pride in the places we call home.
I was in Chelmsford on Monday talking to police officers about how the plan will clamp down on offenders and make sure they are swiftly punished – so we can restore pride in the places we call home.
3/ Yesterday we launched our plan to power Britain, from Britain.
We’ve seen the terrible cost of global energy disruption, which is why investing in energy sources here at home is so important.
It won't just drive down prices, but will also create jobs and grow the economy.
We’ve seen the terrible cost of global energy disruption, which is why investing in energy sources here at home is so important.
It won't just drive down prices, but will also create jobs and grow the economy.
Can we have a bit of honesty about the UK joining the #CPTPP please.
1) Government's own forecasts say it will contribute to 0.8% GDP growth, compared to the 4% loss from leaving the EU single market. 1/
1) Government's own forecasts say it will contribute to 0.8% GDP growth, compared to the 4% loss from leaving the EU single market. 1/
2) In joining we become committed to a common set of trade laws and regulations, much as we were under the single market. So the much hailed #sovereignty we won from #Brexit is being given up with not so much as a whisper. 2/ @RishiSunak
3) Some of the laws we will be bound under will require us to lower our standards in areas of food and the environment.
4) We are likely to agree to remove tariffs on palm oil as a condition of joining, which will have a direct consequence of increased Amazon deforestation 3/
4) We are likely to agree to remove tariffs on palm oil as a condition of joining, which will have a direct consequence of increased Amazon deforestation 3/
[thread] on #CPTPP
A deal where the UK is so weakened, enfeebled and desperate that it had to make concessions to *Malaysia*
(let alone to other nations)
And those who did that deal also fucked up the Australia deal where it damages Britain (see George Eustice)
A deal where the UK is so weakened, enfeebled and desperate that it had to make concessions to *Malaysia*
(let alone to other nations)
And those who did that deal also fucked up the Australia deal where it damages Britain (see George Eustice)
So
CPTPP
Let's look at the estimates of how beneficial it will be to the UK
scmp.com/comment/opinio…
CPTPP
Let's look at the estimates of how beneficial it will be to the UK
scmp.com/comment/opinio…
Efectivamente como dice RD el #TPP11 o #CPTPP nos hace perder soberanía a cambio de algunos beneficios. Ejemplos bien concretos de pérdida de soberanía: Fuente: subrei.gob.cl/acuerdos-comer…
Chile pierde la soberanía de establecer trabajo forzoso, trabajo infantil, etc. (Hilo)
1/
Chile pierde la soberanía de establecer trabajo forzoso, trabajo infantil, etc. (Hilo)
1/
Con el #TPP11 también perderíamos nuestro derecho soberano a salirnos de la OIT sin incumplir el #TPP11 ya que el #TPP11 exige el cumplimiento de las normas laborales de la OIT.
2/
2/
Con #TPP11 Chile pierde la soberanía de no penalizar la corrupción y la contabilidad trucha ¿A lo mejor eso es lo que les molesta a los políticos?
3/
3/
Taiwan's Executive Yuan announced tonight that #Taiwan has officially applied to join #CPTPP and will notify all member states to get their support. The news comes after #China also launched its bid to join CPTPP. cna.com.tw/news/firstnews…
The spokesperson said that the goal of joining #CPTPP has been one of the main goals of this government since @iingwen became #Taiwan President in 2016. He said all government departments have join the efforts of preparing for this bid.
#Taiwan will hold a press conference tomorrow.
A useful document on the UK’s position. Joining #CPTPP is fine on the right terms
But let’s not kid ourselves. It’s no substitute for trade with the EU
Post-Brexit, why is “CPTPP, unlike EU” repeated throughout?
It’s another trade deal, like UK-EU. Not either/or. Get over it
But let’s not kid ourselves. It’s no substitute for trade with the EU
Post-Brexit, why is “CPTPP, unlike EU” repeated throughout?
It’s another trade deal, like UK-EU. Not either/or. Get over it
See ⬇️
So, the 11 members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement Trans-Pacific Partnership (#CPTPP) have agreed to start negotiations for the UK to accede.
Many others have commented. I won't repeat them. Just a few points to consider
1/9 reuters.com/world/uk/trans…
Many others have commented. I won't repeat them. Just a few points to consider
1/9 reuters.com/world/uk/trans…
The statement mti.gov.sg/-/media/MTI/Mi…
Starting negotiations with the UK is only one part. The statement ends with: ministers and senior officials “hope that those Signatories for which the CPTPP has yet to enter into force will ratify the Agreement as soon as possible”
2/9
Starting negotiations with the UK is only one part. The statement ends with: ministers and senior officials “hope that those Signatories for which the CPTPP has yet to enter into force will ratify the Agreement as soon as possible”
2/9
What are the #CPTPP’s rules on accession?
The accession candidate (here the UK) must be “prepared to comply with the obligations in this Agreement”, although negotiation is envisaged. Final approval is needed by each of the countries concerned.
3/9 mfat.govt.nz/assets/Trade-a…
The accession candidate (here the UK) must be “prepared to comply with the obligations in this Agreement”, although negotiation is envisaged. Final approval is needed by each of the countries concerned.
3/9 mfat.govt.nz/assets/Trade-a…
When I tweeted this #CPTPP thread ⬇️ , some people saw it as another UK govt fantasy, an impossibly complex task
That’s an interpretation. Not mine.
The UK-EU agreement and various UK continuity agreements show that deals can be struck quickly. Quality is another matter
1/13
That’s an interpretation. Not mine.
The UK-EU agreement and various UK continuity agreements show that deals can be struck quickly. Quality is another matter
1/13
My purpose was to paint a picture.
"A deal" tells us nothing. No two trade agreements are the same.
This ⬇️ is what the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (#CPTPP) looks like.
With some questions …
2/13
"A deal" tells us nothing. No two trade agreements are the same.
This ⬇️ is what the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (#CPTPP) looks like.
With some questions …
2/13
1. Would the UK joining #CPTPP be beneficial? Yes, but the benefits would be limited—distance does matter, even with services, and CPTPP is thin on services.
international.gc.ca/trade-commerce…
So would it be worth the effort?
It might make negotiating with some countries simpler …
3/13
international.gc.ca/trade-commerce…
So would it be worth the effort?
It might make negotiating with some countries simpler …
3/13
[Braces for the "You do know we buy stuff from China don't you" morons......]
Not to worry. I've fixed it.
"As you can see, the UK is ideally placed to take advantage....."
#CPTPP
"As you can see, the UK is ideally placed to take advantage....."
#CPTPP
The UK is starting talks to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (#CPTPP)
One way of finding out what it is: look at the text.
Here goes.
It doesn’t have a Secretariat so the text is published by each govt. Google “CPTPP text”
1/13
One way of finding out what it is: look at the text.
Here goes.
It doesn’t have a Secretariat so the text is published by each govt. Google “CPTPP text”
1/13
New Zealand is a good place to start. It has the text by chapter, 30 of them: mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-…
(Canada has summaries by chapter: international.gc.ca/trade-commerce…)
#CPTPP
2/13
(Canada has summaries by chapter: international.gc.ca/trade-commerce…)
#CPTPP
2/13
“Wow! 30 chapters. Better start reading”
“Hang on. There’s more.”
mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-…
#CPTPP
3/13
“Hang on. There’s more.”
mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-…
#CPTPP
3/13
If you want to join EU you have to comply with stringent democratic standards. Clearly that doesn't apply to the CPTPP because Brunei is an absolute monarchy, Vietnam is a one party state and both countries, along with Malaysia and Singapore still use the death penalty.
As for LGBT rights well in Brunei, Malaysia and I believe Singapore it's illegal to be gay. I'm sure someone will tell me about others. But seriously are these the trade partners we want? We're leaving the democratic EU for this?
Oh and in Brunei the penalty for being convicted of loving someone of the same gender is "death by stoning". But you know... you celebrate if you want to #CPTPP
THREAD: Boris Johnson has a problem named Joe Biden: Democrats are ☑️ on UK climate leadership and ☑️ on UK defense spending increase, but in no mood to prioritize the relatively small trade deal Johnson wants to agree in Biden’s first 100 days. 1/
politico.com/news/2020/12/3…
politico.com/news/2020/12/3…
My new article puts the much more likely timeframe for the U.S.-U.K. #trade deal as 2022. It’s not punishment for #Brexit per se, but Brexit means the U.K. has complicated Washington’s relations with Europe, and dropped it down the global pecking order /2
I interviewed 16 senior officials and former officials on both sides of the Atlantic, and it’s clear that despite the new EU-UK settlement, Brexit will continue to change the transatlantic dynamic under Biden /3
Mein Take on #RCEP:
1. (& am wichtigsten): 🇨🇳 hat gezeigt, dass es in einem plurilateralen Abkommen anschlussfähig ist.
2. 🇮🇳 hat das Gegenteil bewiesen, was Indien zurückwirft und man #Modhi vorwerfen muss.
3. Der Abtritt #Abe|s machte wohl auch möglich, dass sich 🇰🇷 und 1/
1. (& am wichtigsten): 🇨🇳 hat gezeigt, dass es in einem plurilateralen Abkommen anschlussfähig ist.
2. 🇮🇳 hat das Gegenteil bewiesen, was Indien zurückwirft und man #Modhi vorwerfen muss.
3. Der Abtritt #Abe|s machte wohl auch möglich, dass sich 🇰🇷 und 1/
🇯🇵 wieder an einem Tisch setzen können.
4. Ungeachtet politischer Spannungen vertiefen 🇦🇺 und 🇳🇿 ihre Wirtschaftsbeziehungen mit 🇨🇳
5. Das Abkommen ist zwar nicht so tiefgreifend wie aktuelle Abkommen von @Trade_EU (#CETA), ist aber darauf angelegt, weiterentwickelt zu /2
4. Ungeachtet politischer Spannungen vertiefen 🇦🇺 und 🇳🇿 ihre Wirtschaftsbeziehungen mit 🇨🇳
5. Das Abkommen ist zwar nicht so tiefgreifend wie aktuelle Abkommen von @Trade_EU (#CETA), ist aber darauf angelegt, weiterentwickelt zu /2
werden. Ansonsten würde man kein permanente Institution mit dem Sekretariat schaffen. Das wird aufgrund der dahinterstehenden ökonomischen Power die Normen- und Standardsetzung *weltweit* beeinflussen.
6. Die #US-Politik des America First ist krachend gescheitert: Der Rückzug 3/
6. Die #US-Politik des America First ist krachend gescheitert: Der Rückzug 3/
Joining high-standard economic / trade pacts such as #CPTPP will be an important strategic move for #China to accommodate itself amid the current changes, says Huang Qifan: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lBj7m4Usv_M-… 1/6
Joining CPTPP will level up China’s opening-up drive, which will force more in-depth and fundamental reforms. That will reinvigorate Chinese market participants, improve the efficiency of the internal circulation, and step up forming a mature market economy...2/6
Meanwhile, participation in the pact will help China to open up wider and engage more in the international circulation...3/6
And so the fog clears.
For those unfamiliar with #CPTPP, it's essentially #TPP (which @realDonaldTrump pulled out of in 2016) with all of the bits the US alone had demanded removed:
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/tra…
Though how the UK expects to satisfy the 11 existing members...
For those unfamiliar with #CPTPP, it's essentially #TPP (which @realDonaldTrump pulled out of in 2016) with all of the bits the US alone had demanded removed:
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/tra…
Though how the UK expects to satisfy the 11 existing members...
...that it will respect the rules of any international agreement at this point is beyond me.
If the Government won't honour an Agreement it negotiated with its closest neighbours, why on Earth would a bunch of sovereign nations on the other side of the world choose to trust it?
If the Government won't honour an Agreement it negotiated with its closest neighbours, why on Earth would a bunch of sovereign nations on the other side of the world choose to trust it?
N.B. This isn't just about what some Minister said in the Commons yesterday; check the extraordinary - some might say #extrajudicial - wording of the UK #InternalMarketBill today:
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told reporters Thursday that “China has a positive and open attitude toward joining the #CPTPP .”
The premier’s comment appears to be the first time that a Chinese leader has publicly confirmed China’s interest in joining in. caixinglobal.com/2020-05-29/pre…
The premier’s comment appears to be the first time that a Chinese leader has publicly confirmed China’s interest in joining in. caixinglobal.com/2020-05-29/pre…
Professor @mahbubani_k , founding dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, told @caixin that he is “very encouraged” by Li’s “strong and powerful” signal about joining the #CPTPP, which would “make the region much more stable”.
“The US has decided to launch a geopolitical contest against China, unwisely. So the best way in which China can respond is not to close up its economy, but to open up its economy. Then China should strengthen its links with its neighbors and with the rest of the world,” he said.
THREAD:1. As free #trade tends to face decline in marginal benefits and rise in marginal costs, it’s not a sure policy choice. CF40 senior fellow Zhang Bin talks about policy choices #China can take facing economic downward pressure
and trade uncertainty: cf40.org.cn/uploads/ZB2019…
and trade uncertainty: cf40.org.cn/uploads/ZB2019…
2.Maintaining moderate #inflation level. Applying a combined CPI and PPI weighted value as an inflation indicator and setting a 2.5–3% inflation target.
3. Adopting a floating exchange rate and leaving sufficient space for monetary policies. A floating exchange rate is an automatic stabilizer in an #economy. Clean floating or the managed floating with a wide floating band is currently the
optimal arrangement.
optimal arrangement.
THREAD: Thank you so much to all the people sending me kind messages of appreciation and support after seeing my recent appearances with @jimmy_dore, where we talked about Julian Assange, #Unity4J, WikiLeaks, #DecipherYou & Snowden.
Posting the vids & some other key work below:
Posting the vids & some other key work below:
Here's my first segment with Jimmy: we discussed my and the amazing @ElizabethleaVos' top 10 findings from our #DecipherYou series studying the Edward Snowden files live online. Really appreciate all the people sharing this content. You can watch it here:
In my second segment with Jimmy: we talked about how @JulianAssange saved Edward Snowden's life & discuss the founding of the #Unity4J movement to free Julian & support @wikileaks: a movement supported by over 70 top whistleblowers, journos & truth tellers
Tomorrow @PeterGHallXIII and I will be discussing the latest results from @ExportDevCanada's Trade Confidence Index (our semi-annual survey of 1,000 Canadian exporters).
In addition to the usual questions on the outlook, we've added #NAFTA, investment, #CPTPP and more. #CdnEcon
In addition to the usual questions on the outlook, we've added #NAFTA, investment, #CPTPP and more. #CdnEcon
...Here's a rundown of the results, starting with a short video by @PeterGHallXIII to tee up the release of @ExportDevCanada's latest Trade Confidence Index #CdnEcon
Key finding 1: Since our last survey, Canadian exporters have become more optimistic about the near-term outlook - due to by higher expected domestic and export sales.
1: I worry sometimes that too much of our narrative about modern Asia is overly Sinocentric -- Chinese advance, Chinese growth, Chinese initiative ... and then US/allied reaction. But this misses much of the story of Asia's last three decades.
2. For example, it has become fashionable to ascribe efforts to build a pan-Asian economic/institutional order to rising Chinese assertiveness or, more precisely, to Chinese ambition. And that is a simple, straightforward enough narrative. But it is just one part of the story.
3. Thus contemporary Asian regionalism for instance—the desire to forge at least some cohesion out of the region’s enormous diversity—has found expression not just in China but across Asia and over many decades.
