The RATE-ARDs at $MCO Moody's and S&P $SPGI have too much influence over companies - case in point is $INVH which owns 80k single family homes with a loan-to-value (LTV) of just 32%. Somehow this company is NOT 'investment grade' and they are de-levering...
2/ to appease these idiot rating agencies. Consider that people typically put down only 5-10% of the purchase price of a home (the rest is financed with a mortgage at an LTV of 80%+). Of course there is one recent example of a situation where the US housing market blew up -caused
3/by rating agencies who in pursuit of fees did whatever $BAC $GS $MS $C $JPM etc told them too - rating hundred$ of billion$ in garbage debt as investment grade creating a housing bubble followed by a global financial crisis truthout.org/articles/the-i…
4/yet over a decade later we have companies run by people infinitely smarter than the idiots at the rating agencies who manage their affairs according to the whims of these short bus riders. Why can't bond managers $BLK $LM #Pimco $JNS just think for themselves?
instead we have non-sensical ratings put forth by the dumbest kids in the room governing the behavior of talented corporate executives. This system makes no sense. $SPY $IWM $TLT $ARKK #stocks#investing#ratingagencies#Moodys#ThinkingIsNotAllowed
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$KRC CEO John Kilroy says he believes the stock is trading at a 1/3 discount to NAV on $C Citi Property CEO conference. Kilroy Oyster Point Ph 2 (Life sciences $ARE) to start this summer. Will also start development of new life sciences project in San Diego. KRC has plenty of $
for development. May also repurchase shares/pay special dividend. #reits#dividends#dividendstocks Great track record of value creation via development - should trade at a premium to NAV. I think this is worth $100-120 per share.
I estimate today's $1.1 bn sale of The Exchange was done at a ~4% cap rate. Tenant is $DBX who has leased space until 2023 but is looking to sublease.
Inflation $TLT worries=opportunity to invest in single family rental leader Invitation Homes $INVH. At $28/sh implies 4.8% 2021 cap rate. Trades at ~5-10% discount to NAV.
$AVB $EQR $CPT $MAA $ESS $VNQ $AMH $XLRE #reits#dividends
SHOULD trade at premium to NAV->Platform value:
2/While anyone can buy a home and become a landlord, this is a scale/density business. To effectively manage single family homes bigger is MUCH better. Scale allows for in-house provision of services (hire a plumber full time for $200/day rather than pay $150 for each visit).
3/Route density is also critical. On average, INVH owns at 5,000 homes per market. Can cluster maintenance jobs. This has lead to NOI margins of ~67%. Put simply, with scale INVH retains more of each rental $ as profit than competitors.
$CPT -Private market sells us that NAV here is ~$125. Good mgmt track record; should trade at a premium. Baird & $BAC putting out usual sellside nonsense today (how is it worth 10% less than yesterday $BAC?). $BAC thinks it knows better than $billions in private mkt skin in game
participants. Haha. Notes from call: There is a strong bid for Class B value add (apartment classes explained here) apartments in the private market. The cap rate spread between Class B 'value add' apartments and Class A apartments has narrowed considerably over the last couple
of years. Camden plans to take advantage of the relative strength of the Class B pricing by selling Class B and rotating the proceeds into Class A assets. This will reduce associated capital expenditures over the life of the asset. Overall this makes sense to rotate into higher
$ESS Love the way they describe capital market activities on the call - I'm paraphrasing "Selling properties at pre COVID pricing and buying back stock at a significant discount to NAV". While volumes have declined in the private market mgmt believes suburban properties would
fetch pre-COVID pricing or better (vast majority of ESS is suburban) whereas urban property values are estimated to be -5% vs. preCOVID w/ cap rates of 4% or lower. Mike Schall & co are the best in the biz $UDR $EQR $AVB $VNQ
In the process of selling 3 assets including San Fran building significantly hit by COVID. 3.2% cap rate on in place rent/ 3.8% pre COVID. Private market (real market) remains strong. Ignore the Wall St wizards panning the stock. Sell side wastes mgmt's time with so many
$MAA (2/4) call highlights: 1)demand is strong -now getting ‘normal’ 5-6% renewal rates (2)see supply moderating in 2H (I always take this with a grain of salt in the sunbelt!) #reits $CPT $VNQ $NXRT #multihousing#apartmentinvesting#dividends#cre (3)Valuations are high/cap....
3)Cap rates at all time lows in key markets (mid 3s/low 4s). This makes it impossible for MAA to acquire assets accretively. Instead they will do some opportunistic divestitures and (4)develop new apartment buildings (2,600 underway)- development yields are expected to be around
6% and in-process projects include Austin and Phoenix. While dev yields are appetizing, recall that it takes ~3+ yrs to stabilize/develop AND 2,600 units is ~2.5% or so of MAA's total # of apartments so this doesn't move the needle a ton. That said, I still like it here and...