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Stefan Rahmstorf 😷 Profile picture
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8 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Zur Erinnerung: Im Umweltgutachten 2020 setzte sich der Umweltrat der Bundesregierung für ein transparentes #CO2budget ein, das sich am Pariser Abkommen orientiert. PM eines gewissen #Nuesslein dazu: die Klimapolitik dürfe sich "nicht im klimabudgetären Klein-Klein verlieren".
Dazu versuchte #Nuesslein die Wissenschaftler zu disreditieren: ihre Argumente zeugten "von der Angst mancher Klimaexperten, medial nicht mehr stattzufinden." Auch Ausbremsen von Klimaschutz und Diffamierung von Experten ist gefährlicher Lobbyismus! cducsu.de/presse/pressem…
Das Ausbremsen von Klimaschutz ist für uns alle viel folgenreicher als jede persönliche Bereicherung.
Mein Kommentar damals dazu: spiegel.de/wissenschaft/m…

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More from @rahmstorf

Stefan Rahmstorf 😷 Profile picture
4 Mar
Why I think that the 'cold blob' in the North Atlantic cannot be explained by wind changes (a question raised in the @nytimes) - a thread. Keep in mind that we're talking about the long-term evolution, not short-term variability. @PdeMenocal nytimes.com/interactive/20…
1. Halldór Björnsson of the Icelandic weather service has shown that short-term temperature fluctuations correlate with the heat exchange through the sea surface, but that this does not explain the longer-term development of the ‘cold blob’ over decades. realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
2. What we observe is a specific cold/warm "fingerprint", which is highly specific for an AMOC slowdown. I haven't seen any study that can explain this by wind changes. The physics behind this is well-understood ocean dynamics (vorticity conservation). realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
Read 8 tweets
Stefan Rahmstorf 😷 Profile picture
26 Feb
Frisch erschienen: Unser neues Paper in Nature Geoscience erhärtet die Belege für eine einzigartige Abschwächung des Golfstromsystem (Atlantische Umwälzströmung, 𝗔𝗠𝗢𝗖) ! @NatureGeosci
Thread. 1/12
Erstautorin Levke Caesar (Maynooth University) hat eine Reihe von veröffentlichten AMOC Rekonstruktionen aus Proxydaten (v.a. aus Tiefseesedimenten) zusammengestellt, die bis 1600 Jahre zurück reichen. Sie zeigen Strömungsgeschwindigkeit, Wassermassen, Wärmetransport an. 2/12
Diese Daten zeigen übereinstimmend eine klare Abschwächung im 20. Jh; in den letzten Jahrzehnten ist die Strömung am schwächsten. In 9 der 11 Datenreihen ist dies statistisch signifikant. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
Stefan Rahmstorf 😷 Profile picture
25 Feb
Just out: our new paper affirming the unprecedented slowdown of the Gulf Stream System (aka Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, 𝗔𝗠𝗢𝗖) in Nature Geoscience! @NatureGeosci A thread. 1/11
Lead author Levke Caesar compiled a range of different, published proxy data reconstructions of the AMOC - thanks to all their authors for sharing them. The longest ones go back 1600 years! They represent different AMOC facets: flow speed, water masses, heat transport. 2/11
These data consistently show an AMOC decline in the 20th Century, with the weakest AMOC state of the whole series in the last decades. This finding is statistically significant in 9 of the 11 time series. 3/11
Read 13 tweets
Stefan Rahmstorf 😷 Profile picture
17 Feb
Two competing effects influence our northern winters:

#1 Global warming.

#2 Increasing polar air outbreaks due to stratospheric polar vortex disturbances.

In the long run #1 wins - our winters are getting warmer. 1/🧵 Image
That's expected as #2 just happens occasionally, and polar air is also getting warmer.

Some people point to long-term warming trends to cast doubt on whether #2 is even real, but that is a non-sequitur. It just means #1 wins in the long run. 2/🧵 Image
That disturbed stratospheric polar vortex states are linked to polar air outbreaks and thus cold extremes either in Eurasia or the US is shown by data analysis: nature.com/articles/s4161… 3/🧵
Read 9 tweets
Stefan Rahmstorf 😷 Profile picture
27 Oct 20
The US elections are now climate elections, as Trump focuses on discrediting Biden's statement about transitioning from oil to renewable energy. It's the fossil fuel lobby versus sensible climate policy. The 20th Century pitched against the 21st. (1/🧵)
Stopping #GlobalWarming is only possible by getting beyond fossil fuels. All nations on this planet agreed in Paris to stop warming well below 2°C. Most of the fossil fuel resources must remain in the ground for that. 2/🧵
China plans to be climate neutral by 2060. Japan, Canada and the EU by 2050. The world is getting out of coal, oil and gas. Trying to scandalise this while the country burns and is ravaged by storms and rising seas, is about as smart as recommending to drink disinfectant. 3/🧵
Read 4 tweets
Stefan Rahmstorf 😷 Profile picture
15 Sep 20
Und nun die Wettervorhersage für Dienstag, den 15. September...
Es freut mich, dass viele hier auf den Unterschied von Wetter und Klima hinweisen! Aber wussten Sie auch, dass der Klimawandel inzwischen schon im täglichen Wetter nachweisbar ist? ethz.ch/de/news-und-ve…
Wer sich für die langfristige Temperaturentwicklung in 🇩🇪 interessiert:
Read 6 tweets

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