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9 Mar, 17 tweets, 4 min read
*Today’s #Covid19 Update Thread*

Data retrieved directly from state dashboards, and not every state updates its numbers daily.

All graphics are 7-day averages, but today's raw reporting for each metric is in tweet below.

UNITED STATES
The United States reported the following raw counts—

Tests: 1,191,529

Cases: 53,531

Deaths: 1,715

Currently Hospitalized: 39,841

Currently in ICU: 7,985
Quite a few small-ish states reporting larger death counts today: MO - 134, MN - 140, OH - 169, and OK 167. Of MN’s 140 deaths, 138 were part of an audit and occurred “over the course of the last year” and will be removed from today’s count. From the MN website:
Despite those chunks, we’re still down 9 raw reported deaths from last Tuesday. Seems to be a very real possibility that we can duck below 1,500 on the 7-day average tomorrow. Need to come in at or below 2,116 tomorrow to get there.
Current hospitalizations and ICUs increased today for the first time since mid-January, though we stayed under the 40K/8K marks. Tue/Wed tend to see the highest hospital reporting, and I was surprised we never saw a day-over-day increase these past 8 weeks until today.
The bump was driven largely by TX, which saw a very large increase (373 Hosp & 67 ICU), but NJ & OH also put up large increases. 7-day-averaged hospitalizations have still declined week-over-week for 53 days straight. ICU streak is at 52.
Positive testing % has declined week-over-week for 59 days straight, but we poked back up over the 4% number today on a pretty low test count.

All in all, more of a meh day than we've had recently. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Regionals coming in minutes in this thread...
CALIFORNIA
TEXAS
FLORIDA
SOUTHEAST
(AL, AR, GA, KY, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN)
SOUTHWEST
(AZ, NM, NV, OK, UT)
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES
(CO, ID, MT, OR, WA, WY)
GREAT PLAINS
(IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD)
GREAT LAKES
(IL, IN, MI, OH, WI)
MID-ATLANTIC
(DC, DE, MD, PA, VA, WV)
NORTHEAST
(CT, MA, ME, NH, NJ, NY, RI, VT)

• • •

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More from @TheLawyerCraig

Craig Profile picture
10 Mar
*Updating #COVID19 Data*

I just realized this morning a large error in several states in the way that @COVID19Tracking (and now our team) reported many states testing totals compared to the way it presented cases.

It's another denominator problem, folks.

🧵🧵🧵
When available, CTP (and our team) reported probable cases as the preferred metric, which is defined as follows: Image
Poking around on the state dashboards, the overwhelming majority of probables come via positive antigen test.

But when it comes to reporting tests, we (and CTP, in its list of test totals that everyone uses) exclude antigen tests!

The result? Fewer tests. Higher % positive.
Read 12 tweets
Craig Profile picture
8 Mar
*Today’s #Covid19 Update Thread*
(data pulled directly from state dashboards)

All graphics contain *7-day averages* for the metrics, but I’ll post the raw counts daily in the second post of the thread as well.

UNITED STATES
The United States reported the following raw counts—

Tests: 1,323,141

Cases: 42,579

Deaths: 629

Currently Hospitalized: 39,367

Currently in ICU: 7,973
DAY 1—and a hell of a start. We just hit our lowest % positive in the entire pandemic (3.97%), besting the 3.98% we posted way back in June, which was the only other day under 4% (7-day average).

All our metrics continue to trend downward nicely as well.
Read 15 tweets
Craig Profile picture
3 Mar
Virginia just posted another large chunk of Covid-19 deaths today, mostly backlog. VA's piecemeal backlog reporting is skewing the US's recent trends. Look at this:

2/20 - 3/3 (12 days): 2228 reported deaths (186/day)

12/30 - 2/19 (52 days): 2178 reported deaths (42/day)
Of course, as it states on its website, most of the recent reported deaths are matching death certificates from the holiday and post-holiday period (more than a month ago)

On the left, VA deaths by date of death. On the right VA deaths by report date:
Despite this, many headlines—and even the updates contained within—make no mention of pairing older deaths. Like this one:
wric.com/health/coronav…
Read 7 tweets
Craig Profile picture
1 Mar
Twitter seems to be responding to @CDCDirector comments stating that Covid-19 deaths in the United States are rising. I didn't hear the briefing, but I will comment on the contention that Covid-19 deaths are rising:

That contention is wrong. Deaths are not rising.

Thread🧵
It's first important to distinguish between date of death and date of reported death. The latter (inevitably) follows the former, but by how long? It depends. Sometimes a few days. Sometimes weeks. Sometimes months. Sometimes several months!
We have the normal reporting flow (days or weeks).

We have backlogs created in times of stress that take time to resolve (weeks to months).

We also have audits, death certificate matching, or just plain missed deaths (L.A. & Ohio recently) (potentially several months).
Read 13 tweets
Craig Profile picture
9 Feb
Where does the US stand on #Covid19? Not a simple question. I tweet Covid data daily, and the trends have been positive for weeks. But I often get asked, “when is this over?” What about #b117? And seasonality? And the vaccines—shouldn’t they change the trajectory?

Thread
Full disclosure: I’m a realist guided by data but with a bias toward optimism. I also don’t give one tiny, insignificant shit about the political ramifications.

The overall takeaway is that we’re looking a hell of a lot better today than in November, December, and early January.
Covid deaths, by and large, will define the pandemic, so it’s easy to rely solely on that metric as a barometer for current success. But it’s a poor real-time bellwether. By now, everyone assessing the data (in good faith) should be aware that reported deaths lag other metrics.
Read 17 tweets
Craig Profile picture
8 Jan
@COVID19Tracking *Today’s #Covid19 Update Thread*
(tests, cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU, and % testing positive as of Today, 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, and 2 months ago—data from @COVID19Tracking)

UNITED STATES
(Thoughts and region-by-region breakdown in thread below) Image
@COVID19Tracking Today is the first day of the pandemic that the United States hit 4,000 reported deaths. It pushed our 7-day-average back to a new peak of 2,774.

The holiday reporting lull has left the building.
@COVID19Tracking Our 7-day-average for those currently in the ICU has now increased week-over-week for 100 days straight. Hospitalizations are at 102 days straight.

Both metrics have also been increasing at a higher percentage in a couple weeks since Christmas. Not a ton higher, but higher.
Read 5 tweets

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