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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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10 Mar, 9 tweets, 4 min read
Increased mortality for #B117—New study in 🇬🇧 finds 64% higher risk of mortality for #B117 versus previously circulating variants (95% confidence interval 1.32–2.04) in ~55,000 people who tested #COVID19 positive in community. Risks grew after >12 days. 🧵
bmj.com/content/372/bm…
2) In this population, “this represents an increase in deaths from 2.5 to 4.1 per 1000 detected cases.”
3) “The matched cohort design controls for most potential biases, including variations in hospital capacity, as it pairs patients by personal characteristics, geography, and time of testing.” It also adjusted for age.
4) “Infections with the new variant #B117 (as measured by S gene negativity) were associated with an increased risk of death (P<0.001).”
5) “The increased hazard ratio between 1.32 and 2.04, higher than for other variants, translates to a 32% to 104% increased risk of death, with the most probable hazard ratio estimate of 1.64, or a 64% increased risk of death.”
6) This new UK study of 64% increased mortality risk with #B117 also is consistent with the other recent Danish CDC study that found 64% increases risk of hospitalization with #B117. See thread 🧵 below.
7) this increased severity was also warned about earlier by other UK experts.
8) That said, the vaccines seem to work pretty well against #B117. Here is the recent paper on the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine....
9) the main concern for #B117 is that it is more contagious by 40-60%. And there is lots of data showing it may be spreading more in children than previous common varieties of #SARSCoV2. See thread 🧵 here.

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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
12 Mar
Good news—Updated Novavax vaccine results.

📌96% effective against symptomatic #COVID19

📌86% for #B117 variant from UK🇬🇧

📌55% for #B1351 variant from South Africa🇿🇦 (among HIV-negative)

📌100% protection against severe disease (all populations) 🧵
ir.novavax.com/news-releases/… Image
2) “In 🇬🇧 volunteers 65 years of age and older, 10 cases of COVID-19 were observed, with 90% of those cases occurring in the placebo group.”

27% of trial were elderly. So this is very promising it works likely well in elderly.
3) To be clear, the symptomatic efficacy of 96.4% (95% CI: 73.8, 99.5) is against the original virus strain, excluding the #B117 and #B1351.

The 55% against #B1351 lower but still on par with flu vaccines in some years. Still good! We would have accepted >50% when we had none.
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
12 Mar
📍Johns Hopkins study: States with Dem governors had higher incidence & #COVID19 deaths in March-May 2020.

➡️ but states with Republican governors surpassed D-led states rest of the year. After June 3, GOP-led states had higher incidence & more deaths. 🧵 nbcnews.com/politics/polit… Image
2) one reason for the change is that Democrats were in charge of states where people who had the virus first arrived in the country — but Republicans were less stringent about safeguards, which could have contributed to their states' ultimately higher incidence and death rates.
3) "The early trends could be explained by high Covid-19 cases and deaths among D-led states that are home to initial ports of entry for the virus in early 2020. However, subsequent reversal, may reflect policy differences that could have facilitated the spread of the virus."
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
11 Mar
💡Multi-layered mitigations can substantially reduce the risk of transmission within schools & into households. 🇬🇧 experts recommend set of recommendations in line with CDC & practiced in many countries to reduce the risk in schools / mitigate #COVID19. 🧵
thelancet.com/journals/lance… Image
2) Here is a list of the expert recommendations for safer schools so that kids can attend schools safer and keep them healthy. Image
3) “Arguments that schools do not contribute to community transmission & overall risk to children from COVID-19” have had major limitations. Here is why: academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
Read 9 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
11 Mar
New preprint on the California variant - 1.427/B.1.429 or 20C/L452R, now >50% of sequenced cases by Jan 29 2021, showed 18.6-24% higher transmissibility vs wild-type circulating strains—slower than #B117 or #P1. Bit lower CP antibody binding.🧵 #COVID19
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2) “This variant is characterized by three mutations in the spike protein, including a L452R substitution in the receptor-binding domain.”
3) “Our analyses revealed 2-fold increased B.1.427/B.1.429 viral shedding in vivo and increased L452R pseudovirus infection of cell cultures & lung organoids, albeit decreased relative to pseudoviruses carrying the N501Y found in SARS-CoV-2 variants (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1).”
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
10 Mar
Neil deGrasse Tyson points out that some states removing mandatory mask mandates is like “having a peeing section of a swimming pool”.... “that’s bad”. #MaskUp #COVID19
2) Here is a mask and airborne science compilation video
3) Masks and aerosols demo
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
10 Mar
Engineer Allan J. McDonald, who in 1986 tried to stop the launch of the Challenger space shuttle, citing the effect of the cold on booster rockets, and who, after it broke apart on liftoff, blew the whistle when officials tried to cover, has died at 83. 🙏 nytimes.com/2021/03/09/us/…
2) “During the hearing, Ms. Ride asked Lawrence B. Mulloy, who oversaw the booster rockets for NASA, about rumors of a dissent by Morton Thiokol engineers. Mr. Mulloy conceded that there had been a discussion, but said that the company had ultimately agreed to go ahead....
3) “At that point Mr. McDonald, sitting in the back of the room, stood up. His hands shaking, he told the panel that Mr. Mulloy was not giving them the whole story; the engineers, he said, had been pressured and overruled.
Mr. Rogers immediately asked for the room to be emptied
Read 8 tweets

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