Thread by @DavidSteadson

It's the 1 year anniversary of the first reported death from Covid-19 in Sweden. 23 new deaths reported today, and a further 5300 new confirmed infections.

Total #covid19sverige death toll now 13 111.

This is a dramatically higher death toll than our Nordic neighbours, who chose a suppression strategy - get cases down as much as possible - as opposed to Sweden's mitigation strategy - get cases down enough so that healthcare is not overwhelmed.

At the peaks of Wave 1 and Wave 2, Sweden was experiencing around 100 deaths/day from Covid-19. We continue to have around 20-30 deaths a day.

None of our Nordic neighbours have come even close to this level.

(note: Swedish data here is based on reporting day, not day of death, hence the jumpiness)

Sweden continues to report around 4000 new confirmed infections a day. There are some signs this is starting to plateau thanks to the increased restrictions and improved weather.

Apart from the first week or two of the pandemic, Sweden did little testing until wave 2 took off following the summer break. Denmark in particular took a dramatically different approach - following the advice of WHO to test test test!

Massive amounts of testing allows Denmark to quickly see an outbreak was occurring, and quickly react by implementing restrictions, reflected in the steepness of the curves in the number of cases detected.

At the beginning of the pandemic, The UK announced they would try to stop the pandemic with the help of "herd immunity". Swedish State Epidemiologist and chief architect of the Swedish response, Dr Anders Tegnell, agreed.

aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/6j7v…

Indeed, a few days earlier, he had written to colleagues suggesting keeping schools open would help reach herd immunity earlier.

March 16 2020, Anders Tegnell responded to Dr Peet Tüll, one of his predecessors as State Epidemiologist, confirming that the Public Health Authority and chosen to pursue Herd Immunity as the strategy.

The world takes notice of the different approach Sweden is taking to the pandemic. @DrEmmaFrans explains the strategy isn't to stop the spread of the virus, just to slow it down so healthcare isn't overwhelmed.

In the following months, Swedish authorities were clearly pinning their hopes on the population being protected from a 2nd wave of the pandemic through widespread immunity.

The approach was promoted around the world.

npr.org/2020/04/26/845…

This belief assumed that the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for the SARS-CoV-2 was actually much lower than the 0.3% to 1% rate earlier calculated by WHO and other scientists.

who.int/docs/default-s…

Senior advisor to the Swedish Public Health Authority, and former State Epidemiologist Johan Giesecke said on April 17 he believes the IFR to be about 0.1% - a "bad flu". He predicts the Swedish death toll to be between 1000 and 2000.

On the day of that interview, the Swedish Public Health Authority reported there had already been a total of 1400 deaths, later updates took it to 1838.

The day before, on April 16, Anders Tegnell, told Norwegian Media that he expected Stockholm to hit herd immunity at the end of May.
nrk.no/urix/tegnell_-…

April 23, Swedish Deputy State Epidemiologist explains that a lockdown would slow the spread of the virus too much.

Sweden is banking on herd immunity.

https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1343120955388932096?s=20

A few weeks later, in response by calculations by mathematician Tom Britton, Tegnell admits a death toll of 8000 to 20000 is possible, if Sweden doesn't protect the elderly.

gp.se/nyheter/sverig…

In June, Tegnell's own agency published an analysis of the Infection Fatality Rate in Stockholm. Their result?

0.6%

folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-mat…

Today, a year since the first death, Stockholm is in the middle of a third wave of infections, averaging nearly 1000 new cases a day, and increasing.

As cases began to soar at the end of October, Anders Tegnell amazingly tells German media Die Zeit that pursuit of herd immunity without a vaccine is not only futile, but would be immoral.

zeit.de/wissen/2020-10…

And while mortality may be decreasing thanks to the brilliant work of vaccine scientists, we are again seeing more and more Swedes admitted to hospital with Covid-19. In January, I was one of them.

Over 42,000 Swedes have been hospitalised due to this pandemic, nearly 4500 of them admitted to Intensive Care. More than 11% of those hospitalised have died.

socialstyrelsen.se/statistik-och-…

Many thousands more have died outside of hospital. The wave 2 that was not supposed to come, that we would be protected from? It's been bigger and more deadly than wave 1.

In December, an independent Corona Commission released their first report. They pointed out that the high death toll in Sweden was due to a failure to protect the elderly.

svd.se/sverige-missly…

Tegnell's reponse? Essentially - not our fault.

https://twitter.com/BoardshortsBen/status/1339130625463365634?s=20

What they also said, but media and Government chose to ignore?

"We find it most likely that the single most important factor behind the major outbreaks and the high number of deaths in residential care is the overall spread of the virus in the society"

coronakommissionen.com/wp-content/upl…

Over 13000 dead. More than 40000 hospitalisations. Over 700000 confirmed cases, and likely closer to 1.5 million infected, potentially more than 100000 people suffering from long-term health damage.

This is the legacy of the Swedish Coronavirus Strategy.

novus.se/novus-coronast…

And it's not over yet.

/end