Thread by @DavidSteadson

34 new #covid19sverige deaths reported today, taking the total to 13042. There are 34 deaths with no date of death recorded. These deaths were spread fairly evening over the past 2 weeks, with only 2 deaths recorded earlier.

Now that the data is more or less complete, a slowdown in the rate of new deaths is clearly apparent from approx mid-Jan in the cumulative deaths data. This is approx 3 weeks after harder restrictions were put in place.

Yes @SwedishPM, NPI work.

This is also clear on the 7 day average of mortality, with deaths declining significantly from Jan 14. While the last 2-3 weeks data remains incomplete, a clear slowing in the rate of decline is already apparent from approx Feb 14.

We can also see this effect in case data with a slowdown in the decline of cases beginning around Jan 20, preceding the decline in mortality by 3-4 weeks.
This is likely a result of returning to work with some influence of B117. The recent increase is likely prinarily B117.

Stockholm cases continue to increase. There may be a plateau beginning from the new recommendations around shopping, too early to tell for sure.

Västra Götaland however appears to have successfully pushed R back under 1.

Despite the increase in cases nationally and in Stockholm, I do not expect mortality to increase significantly, if at all. After a hiccup the week before with cases increasing in the 80-89yr group, they returned to decreasing again last week.

Yes, anti-vaxxers, vaccines work.

This is very apparent if we compare the number of new cases in Week 3 to Week 9 by age group. Dramatic increases in cases in the 0-19yr cohort, driven by B117, and similiar dramatic decreases in cases in the 80+ cohort, driven by vaccinations.

So mortality is decreasing and will likely continue to do so, or at least plateau at a lower level. That's the good news. The bad news is that Covid-19 effects far more people than just those who die. Hospitalisations are clearly increasing again.

It's likely we are also getting increases in #LongCovid and MIS-C. @Folkhalsomynd and @socialstyrelsen need to (finally) turn their attention to the tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of forgotten victims of this pandemic in Sweden - and ensure there are not more.