As we look at the “year that was”.... When the WHO declared Covid-19 a pandemic, markets went into free fall. A few days later on Monday, March 16, 2020, markets had their worst day of the pandemic.
S&P fell 325 points (-324.89) nearly 12%.
The Dow lost nearly 3,000 points (-2,997.10) nearly 13%.
The Nasdaq lost over 970 points (-970.29) nearly 12%.
Markets continued to struggle as states shut down, with hardest hit industries like travel & hospitality laying off thousands and suffering huge market losses.
While the CARES ACT focused more on individuals, smaller businesses and some industries, rescue actions from the Fed Reserve included keeping rates at zero and buying up securities which provided both a safety net and major boost to the stock market.
And while we did see hundreds of thousands of small businesses close over the last year and 9+mm Americans slip into poverty since the spring, the stock market has had an extraordinary run.
For those who could work from home and unable to spend disposable income on travel, entertainment, normal planned expenses, Average family savings went up significantly throughout the year, now more than 20% of disposal income.
As of this morning, the Dow is up 37% from a year ago. The S&P up 42%. And the Nasdaq is up 62%.
Biden’s #AmericanRescuePlan aims to correct this pandemic tale of two economies. But as of today, those in the “professional sector” have experienced a year of increased financial security while those in working class, paycheck-to-paycheck communities have had a year of despair.
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BREAKING: @Sen_JoeManchin just confirmed to me that he will vote to support the nomination of Xavier Becerra for HHS Secretary.
See his statement below:
“As our nation faces deep divides and a healthcare crisis that has taken the lives of far too many Americans, we must commit to working together to heal our nation...”
“...While Xavier Becerra and I do not agree on every issue, he has affirmed to me his dedication to working with Members on both sides of the aisle to address the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the numerous needs of our nation in a bipartisan way...”
1/
It’s Saturday Night, Let’s Get NERDY...
Why are some Texans seeing crazy electric bill spikes? It goes beyond supply/demand & really cold temperatures. It’s about deregulation and risk management.
2/ Bc Texas electricity mkt is so competitive, providers offer all sorts of incentives & unusual offerings like wholesale prices vs fixed. Why is this the worst moment for wholesale?
3/ The obvious: supply/demand In the face of record demand to heat homes, supply crashed.
- cold snap made everyone jack up the heat in their homes
- cold snap caused some power generation plants to shut down which reduces supply
THREAD: Insights from 2 of the CEOs who met with President Biden yesterday...It was described as a very serious and detailed meeting, where a wide range of topics were discussed.
The room agreed that tackling the health crisis is paramount, but the economic crisis remains complicated and problematic...fearing the worsening “K” recovery [where growing income inequality, rich richer, poor poorer] vs. a “V” recovery (snap back)
Biden started with the vaccine rollout and the room concurred that the number one thing we need is to get the vaccine into America’s arms. Biden also covered education, skills gap, infrastructure, healthcare with no specific timeline.
THREAD on Robinhood/Reddit/GME: CONGRESS is calling for action, but no one has clearly articulated what they actually want.
We could look back on this as the biggest “Pump & Dump” in history... with the little guys carrying all the water & then getting it dumped on their heads.
It started with a SMART discovery, Melvin Capital (hedge fund) broke the cardinal rule of short selling. They took on way too big of a short position given the size of their fund, how heavily shorted the stock already was and the amount of shares outstanding.
Technically, they were RIPE to get squeezed, but there was virtually no case for anyone following fundamentals (earnings, growth etc...) to want to buy this sleepy, brick and mortar video game retailer.
Short selling is absolutely legal and adds to efficiency of the market.
THREAD: Let’s dig into Biden’s econ proposal. I know there are a lot of numbers to dig through, but I wanted to note something:
The American Family Act, Child Tax Credit expansion included in the Biden proposal.
It could have a massive impact towards addressing child poverty.
According to Columbia University: American Family Act will CUT Child Poverty by 40% - which is remarkable from a notable and economic stand point.
While it might sound like a big spend now, the cost to our economy long term from millions of children missing opportunities because they are born into poverty is enormous. (National Academy of Sciences estimates child poverty costs our country between $800bn-$1.1tr a year)
We learned yesterday that Trump’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank, is done doing business with him.
Before he took office, no U.S. major bank was willing to do business with him.
And in the last 48 hours, we’ve seen scores of major companies respond to last week’s riots & the refusal to certify the free & fair election (all fueled by Trump himself), cut off political donations, and some terminating business/payment processing for the Trump Campaign.
The PGA cancelling the upcoming championship at Trump Bedminster was another major blow to Trump’s bottom line & brand.
None of this would have happened if Trump was simply ending his term like any normal President.