New York is poised to lose a seat. But if Dems end up drawing the map, it could be their biggest weapon of the redistricting cycle.

They could merge Stefanik/Tenney (if Tenney's lead holds in #NY22) and severely threaten other Rs, converting a 19D-8R map into 23D-3R (below).
Upstate: under the scenario (above) I've heard floated...

1. #NY27 Jacobs (R) would be axed
2. A safe new Syracuse/Utica #NY22 for Anthony Brindisi (D)
3. A new Ithaca/Kingston district, #NY12, for state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)
4. All current Dem incumbents get Biden +10 seats
One other feature of this play for Upstate: Dems would put Rep. John Katko (R)'s home in Camillus in a Syracuse-less #NY24 (purple), but keep it winnable for themselves in case Katko retires/loses a primary.
Btw, longtime NY observers will recall that state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)'s dad, late Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D), represented a very similar Ithaca/Binghamton/Ulster district back in the 1990s/2000s.

The theory: her last name would carry a lot of appeal in the #NY12 above.
NYC/Long Island: Dems could endanger Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) by adding Dem parts of Babylon/Islip to #NY01 and Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R) by adding Park Slope/Red Hook to Staten Island's #NY11.

Under the hypothetical below, both go from Trump CDs to double digit Biden CDs.
In this scenario, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D)'s "Silk Stocking" #NY12 would be eliminated (she's 74 and nearly lost her last primary, so could retire). The Upper East Side would be given to Rep. Jerry Nadler (D)'s #NY10 and Astoria/Greenpoint would go to AOC's #NY14.
NYC closeup: majority-minority districts would be preserved for...

#NY05 Meeks (D),
#NY06 Meng (D)
#NY07 Velazquez (D)
#NY08 Jeffries (D)
#NY09 Clarke (D)
#NY13 Espaillat (D)
#NY14 Ocasio-Cortez (D)
#NY15 Torres (D)
#NY16 Bowman (D)
Btw, even though it's a Dem gerrymander, it could make a lot of NYC districts more compact: #NY14 and #NY06 would be entirely within Queens, #NY10 and #NY13 would be entirely within Manhattan. #NY08 and #NY09 would be entirely within Brooklyn.

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More from @Redistrict

8 Jan
It's worth considering why Dems have succeeded in Georgia but failed in another state with a fairly similar demographic profile that's extremely important for their long-term prospects of winning power: North Carolina.
First of all, Georgia is simply a more "major metro" state. The Atlanta metro area now casts 59% of the state's votes, whereas the Charlotte/Research Triangle areas *combined* cast only 42% of North Carolina's votes.

NC is simply a more small town/rural state.
Second, whereas Dems "bottomed out" w/ rural GA whites a few years ago, they've continued to backslide w/ rural voters in NC - esp. in the Sandhills region - canceling out their suburban gains.

GA doesn't have an equivalent Robeson Co., which voted 58% Obama '12 & 59% Trump '20.
Read 5 tweets
6 Jan
The bottom line in Ossoff/Perdue: Perdue is outperforming Trump in suburbs w/ lots of country club type Rs (no surprise).

But he's underperforming Trump in heavily Black areas, where there's a slight but significant drop-off in White turnout relative to Black turnout. #GASEN
Overall, it "augurs" (as @Nate_Cohn would say) for an Ossoff advantage at the end of the day. But it's not in territory where it's assured yet, in my view. #GASEN
Here are the big pro-Ossoff margin swings vs. Biden '20 so far in counties that look near fully reported (10k+ vote counties only):

1. Clayton +6.1
2. Liberty +5.0
3. Rockdale +4.2
4. Douglas +3.9
5. Baldwin +2.7
6. Paulding +2.1
Read 5 tweets
22 Dec 20
FWIW, I'm still very skeptical Hart/Dems can find 218 votes in the House, a partisan body, to overturn Iowa's state-certified results - especially when Hart never challenged the recount procedures in *court* during/after the recount. #IA02
On DCCC-facilitated press call, an IA reporter asks Hart attorney Marc Elias why they chose to take issue w/ some ballots before the House but not others. Elias says identifying these 22 ballots "made the cleanest presentation" - also notes they include four ballots not for Hart.
On call, Hart campaign says Hart has *not* been in touch with Pelosi/Dem leadership and that whether Miller-Meeks (R) is seated on 1/3 is ultimately up to the House Administration Committee. #IA02
Read 4 tweets
16 Dec 20
Texas is set to gain three seats, and Republicans will likely try to expand their current 23R-13D edge to a 26R-13D edge - all while adding at least one new Hispanic majority seat and a new Dem seat in Austin. Here's how...
First, Rs would "pack" the districts held by Houston Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) #TX07 and Dallas Rep. Collin Allred (D) #TX32 w/ Dems, converting Fletcher's seat into a Hispanic majority seat. That would ease the creation of two new safe suburban R seats, #TX38 and #TX39.
Next, instead of dividing Austin six ways, Rs would create a new overwhelmingly blue Travis Co. seat (#TX37 here). The tradeoff? It would protect surrounding R districts against heavy D vote growth along the I-35 corridor for the next decade.
Read 5 tweets
8 Dec 20
Fact: Biden won the presidency winning 85% of counties with a Whole Foods and 32% of counties with a Cracker Barrel - the widest gap ever.
Here's the breakdown of Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel counties won by past new presidents (all based on today's store locations):

1992: Clinton 60% WF, 40% CB = 20% gap
2000: Bush 43% WF, 75% CB = 32% gap
2008: Obama 78% WF, 36% CB = 42% gap
2016: Trump 22% WF, 74% CB = 52% gap
In this context, it's a remarkable achievement that Biden was able to reverse some Dem erosion in Cracker Barrel counties (i.e. places that tend to decide Midwest swing states).

There's no guarantee a future Dem w/ a different profile could hold the line in Erie, Saginaw, etc.
Read 5 tweets
1 Dec 20
Breaking: Manhattan absentee/affidavit ballots just added...

Biden 225,435(90%)
Trump 20,184 (8%)

Biden's national popular vote lead climbs to 6.55 million (4.2%).
Bronx absentee/affidavit ballots just added...

Biden 83,539 (86%)
Trump 11,891 (12%)

Biden's national popular vote lead climbs to 6.62 million (4.2%).
Brooklyn absentee/affidavit ballots just added...

Biden 189,177 (85%)
Trump 28,041 (13%)

Biden's national popular vote lead climbs to 6.78 million (4.3%).
Read 5 tweets

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