Last week 55,000 new cases, only 35,000 this week.
Cases are down to 1/5 of peak.
Progress in nearly every region in Spain.
Catalonia, Madrid, Andalucia, Valenciana are among regions with the highest number of cases from this ‘wave’ of infections. All are reporting significant declines in cases.
To avoid further disruption and return to normalcy, Spain should adopt the Green Zone exit strategy. Breaking the country into small regions, or ‘zones’, allows green zones to open up while red zones continue to recover.
Take La Rioja for example. Currently 20-30 new cases per day, down from their peak of ~900. Recently, cases are halving every 10 days. At this rate, they get to zero by April 10th and begin opening up safely. With effective contact tracing they can open even earlier.
Another example is Extremadura. While cases are slightly higher, they can get to zero by April 28th! Early April with effective contact tracing. Once at zero, imported cases can be quarantined and life can return to normal. No more new waves, overloaded hospitals, or new variants
Added benefit of the Green Zone strategy:
Don’t wait for your neighbors to get to zero. By restricting non-essential travel between zones, every region can become independent.
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With 786 new cases (weekly average) for the entire country Portugal is only weeks away from 0 new cases.
Portugal cases down 95%+ from peak, lowest since September.
Deaths are also down significantly, more than 90%.
On March 11, the government will announce plans to ease the lockdown.
Will they opt for (1) a sector based relaxation, or (2) a Green Zone exit (geographic) strategy, relaxing only areas with cases controlled by contact tracing, to reach elimination?