Great news: Spain is making significant progress!

Last week 55,000 new cases, only 35,000 this week.

Cases are down to 1/5 of peak.
Progress in nearly every region in Spain.

Catalonia, Madrid, Andalucia, Valenciana are among regions with the highest number of cases from this ‘wave’ of infections. All are reporting significant declines in cases.
To avoid further disruption and return to normalcy, Spain should adopt the Green Zone exit strategy. Breaking the country into small regions, or ‘zones’, allows green zones to open up while red zones continue to recover.
Take La Rioja for example. Currently 20-30 new cases per day, down from their peak of ~900. Recently, cases are halving every 10 days. At this rate, they get to zero by April 10th and begin opening up safely. With effective contact tracing they can open even earlier.
Another example is Extremadura. While cases are slightly higher, they can get to zero by April 28th! Early April with effective contact tracing. Once at zero, imported cases can be quarantined and life can return to normal. No more new waves, overloaded hospitals, or new variants
Added benefit of the Green Zone strategy:

Don’t wait for your neighbors to get to zero. By restricting non-essential travel between zones, every region can become independent.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

10 Mar
Portugal: *Countdown to Zero*

With 786 new cases (weekly average) for the entire country Portugal is only weeks away from 0 new cases.

Portugal cases down 95%+ from peak, lowest since September.

Deaths are also down significantly, more than 90%.
On March 11, the government will announce plans to ease the lockdown.

Will they opt for (1) a sector based relaxation, or (2) a Green Zone exit (geographic) strategy, relaxing only areas with cases controlled by contact tracing, to reach elimination?

covidactiongroup.net/roadmap-to-eli…
Opposition leader Rui Rio @ruiriopsd has said that easing of lockdown may occur regionally at different rates.

theportugalnews.com/news/2021-03-0…
Read 8 tweets
8 Mar
Portugal continues toward zero!

The 7 day average for Portugal is under 800, roughly 1/16 of peak.
Progress is going well in most regions,

Algarve, Alentejo, in the south, down to 30 per day, close to contact tracing control range.

Centro 120
Norte 200
Lisbon 400

The Azores 10, up from 5.
Madeira 180 but increasing

Intensify case finding to accelerate the decline.
Italy’s resurgence continues. Cases are now up to ⅔ of peak, and daily deaths have recently increased.

Yesterday they reported 23,633 cases and 307 deaths.
Read 7 tweets
7 Mar
A week and a half ago we put out rough projections of cases including the B117 variant in the US

What has happened since then and what should we expect next?

Updates on each state

Starting from California--which is following the curve of inaction

@brumatingturtle
[Blue is projection, Black is actual (reported)]

Massachusetts--significantly worse

Florida--roughly the same

Michigan--significantly worse

Pennsylvania--roughly the same

2/
[Blue is projection, Black is actual (reported)]

North Carolina--perhaps a bit less (looks like no variant)

Louisiana--roughly tracking

Indiana--a bit higher

Georgia--significantly worse

3/
Read 5 tweets
6 Mar
@libresdecovid, the Spanish grassroots campaign for #ZeroCovid, has launched the #ZeroCovidChallenge.

Record a 20-30 second video saying why ZeroCovid is necessary and should be implemented in your community.

Here are the first videos:

1/

Read 12 tweets
4 Mar
We are tracking Portugal’s continued progress now down to almost 1/20 of peak.

Over the most recent week Portugal reported 6,500 cases, down from 10,500 the week before, a 38% decline. ImageImageImage
Almost all regions are going down well and consistently across regions. ImageImage
The Azores are under 10 per day.

It would help if they report separately imported, quarantined and community transmission cases. A recent slight increase is otherwise unexplained.

They are very close to reaching the goal of ZeroCovid! Image
Read 5 tweets
3 Mar
Despite being hit very hard throughout all of 2020, the 7-day averages for both daily cases and daily deaths reach new highs in Brazil.
Finland imposes a state of emergency order, allowing government officials to impose new restrictions to slow the spread of new variants.

They are currently averaging 560 cases and 2 deaths per day.

reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Sweden’s response continues to be a failure among Scandinavian countries despite abandoning the herd immunity strategy.

New evidence points to intentional hiding of earlier deaths in school age children with 68% increase in excess mortality.

sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/c…
Read 6 tweets

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