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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Mar 14, 2021 • 26 tweets • 18 min read • Read on X
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VACCINE ESCAPE OF VARIANTS vs Pfizer-BioNTech & NIH-Moderna: Troubling new peer-reviewed paper shows even 2-dose recipients have serious trouble neutralizing the #B1351 🇿🇦 variant—as little as vs old SARS & bat coronavirus. #P1 is poor too. 1-dose worse. Lots of graphs🧵 #COVID19 Image
2) First let’s cover some good news, that having 2 doses clearly MUCH MUCH better than 1 dose alone of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines versus neutralizing the classic #SARSCoV2 common strain.
cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092… Image
3) Notably, notice how much stronger in neutralization the blood of people with 2 doses of either Pfizer (dark blue) or Moderna (dark red) is versus the 1 dose of each. Note the logarithmic y-axis. So the difference is even greater. Image
5) The neutralization curves from 2-doses BNT162b2 vaccine of wild-type SARS-CoV-2 to variant pseudoviruses: poor overlap=bad.

#B117 is pretty good. California #B1429 pretty good. Brazil #P1 & #B1351 have more trouble.

But this is just one person—let’s looks at more people: Image
6) Now let’s look at many folks with 1 and 2 doses of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine... 1 dose much lower than 2 doses. #B1351 and #P1 poor neutralization—akin to old 2003 SARS & other bat coronavirus that are only ~75% related to #SARSCoV2!

(%🧬wise—akin humans & elephants close) Image
7) Now let’s look at many folks with 1 or 2 doses of the NIH-Moderna vaccine... 1 dose still much lower than 2 doses. And #P1 and #B1351 also agains problematic. But Moderna had slightly better performance vs Pfizer... let’s look at next graph... Image
8) let’s focus on just Pfizer and exactly how much relative fold decrease 2-dose vaccinated person had against each variant in neutralization vs the common #SARSCoV2. Values <3x is not major difference.

#P1 is moderately poor at 6.7x drop, but #B1351 has 34x to 42x drop! Wow. Image
9) now let’s turn on just Moderna and how much fold decrease 2-dose vaccinated persons had against each variant in neutralization vs common #SARSCoV2.

#P1 is moderately poor at 4.5x drop (Pfizer had 6.7x drop), but #B1351 has 19-27x drop! (Better than Pfizer 34-42x). Still wow. Image
10) To be clear, these fold drops in neutralization does not equal vaccine % efficacy drops directly. For example, #B117 has often had ~2x neutralization drop but usually similar % efficacy. T-cell immunity is also not included. But >6x we often see some efficacy changes.
11) Overall, it looks like:

📌really need 2 doses for maximal protection (time gap not evaluated here)

📌Vaccines looks generally good against #B117 & #B1429 (CA variant)

📌#P1 moderately poorer

📌#B1351 looks worrisome. #B1351 results looks akin to unrelated coronaviruses.
12) “Five of the 10 pseudoviruses, harboring receptor-binding domain mutations, including K417N/T, E484K, and N501Y, were highly resistant to neutralization.
13) “Cross-neutralization of B.1.351 variants was comparable to SARS-CoV and bat-derived WIV1- CoV, suggesting that a relatively small number of mutations can mediate potent escape from vaccine responses.”
14) “these results highlight the potential for variants to escape from neutralizing humoral immunity and emphasize the need to develop broadly protective interventions against the evolving pandemic.”
15) Another preprint recently found similar worrisome results for #B1351 neutralization by Pfizer & Moderna vaccinated? Yes—preprint by Columbia/NIH group also found 10-12x fold drop—again huge.

A Harvard colleague whispered to me: it’s “very concerning”
biorxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
16) This same study also found problems of certain monoclonal antibodies drugs against #B1351. But not all. Image
17) What about convalescent plasma therapy versus the #B1351 and #B117 variants? Decent for #B117. Again super poor for #B1351. This South Africa 🇿🇦 #B1351 variant is quite “concerning” my immunology colleague said (someone who doesn’t usually get worried a lot) Image
18) I want to emphasize — PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE still take the vaccine. The #B1351 variant and #P1 variant are still very very rare in the US and Europe (knock on wood). The vaccines work great for all the other major variants of #B117 and #B1429 (California). So pls #vaccinate
19) on the flip side, T cell mediated immunity via CD4+ & CD8+ T cell responses in convalescent #COVID19 subjects or mRNA vaccinees are not substantially affected by mutations found in the SARS-CoV-2 variants #B117 #P1 #Calc20 (aka #B1429g or #B1351.
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
20) to be clear, both T cells and antibody neutralization important for immune response to the coronavirus. Each pathway offers a degree of protective immunity, but not as good as if both pathways are at maximal. That’s why some immunologist colleagues still whispering concerns.
21) the good thing is that it seems for J&J vaccine, it is still good for #B1351 - still 81% against severe disease in South Africa 🇿🇦 trial component. See thread 🧵
22) and the Novavax vaccine still worked for the #B1351 South Africa variant, albeit attenuated at 55% overall. Severe is near 100%. We don’t have #P1 in this Novavax trial.
23) The most head-scratching thing is why did this earlier study by Pfizer of Prizer vaccine show it was pretty good for #B1351 & #P1 for antibody neutralization whenever the 2 new studies by Columbia/NIH & Harvard groups show it is not. My immunologist colleagues are perplexed.
24) My colleague thinks maybe the study by Pfizer tested a different type of pseudovirus (unclear) or Pfizer maybe excluded low responders in their own study. We think the NIH-Columbia group and Harvard-South Africa (top post) studies are likely better with no industry conflict.
25) A lot of people still don’t understand mRNA vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna. So here is a more simple explainer.
26) Reminder: please don’t relax too soon. This pandemic isn’t over. I can be over sooner if we work together and not dismiss safety measures until we are vaccinated sufficiently. Until then mask and ventilate. 🙏
27) What happens if we ignore #COVID19 pandemic? Brazil 🇧🇷 crisis happens. This is the effect of the unchecked transmission of #P1 variant. Epic crisis.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 2
⛓️CONCENTRATION CAMPS—D.H.S. is setting up a huge network of detention camps. They are converting the U.S. as a region for eligible for ‘expeditionary military deployment’ & no-bid no-public-comment contracts to build a “ghost network” of 10,000-person concentration camps. Jesus. Image
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2) How the Pentagon is Quietly Building Trump’s Concentration Camps

SCOOP: A repurposed Navy contract to funnel tens of billions to ICE for a nationwide "ghost network” of concentration camps—just got a lot bigger.

By @PabloReports
migrantinsider.com/p/how-the-pent…
3) A massive Navy contract vehicle, once valued at $10 billion, has ballooned to a staggering $55 billion ceiling to expedite President Donald Trump’s “mass deportation” agenda.
The mechanism for this expansion is the Worldwide Expeditionary Multiple Award Contract (WEXMAC), originally designed for military logistics abroad. In a move to bypass traditional competition delays, the Navy’s Supply Systems Command has repurposed the vehicle for “TITUS”—Territorial Integrity of the United States.
This $45 billion increase, published just weeks ago, converts the U.S. into a “geographic region” for expeditionary military-style detention. It signals a massive, long-term escalation in the government’s capacity to pay for detention and deportation logistics. In the world of federal contracting, it is the difference between a temporary surge and a permanent infrastructure.
As for taxpayer accountability over how their money gets spent, there is no "grace period" or setup time for contractors. The companies already contracting with the government are grandfathered into future contract increases. The Navy turns a "pilot program" into a permanent, massive-scale operation overnight with fast money incentives like “task orders” that can be issued in days or even hours.
Task orders allow DHS to bypass the months-long public bidding process for every new facility. When the contract says task orders are issued when "specific dates and locations are identified," it means the infrastructure is currently a "ghost" network that can be materialized anywhere in the U.S. the moment a site is picked.
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jan 29
📉25% LOWER ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY! Wowzers—one of the largest long-term safety studies ever undertaken—offers the clearest answer yet: “Among 28 million French adults aged 18–59, those who received an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine were less likely to die in the subsequent four years than those who remained unvaccinated, corresponding to a 25% lower risk of death from all causes.”—and works even better among young adults—⬇️35% lower risk for ages 18-29!

Links in thread 🧵 below👇Image
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2) Vaccinated individuals had a 74% lower risk of death from severe COVID-19 (weighted hazard ratio [wHR], 0.26 [95% CI, 0.22-0.30]) and a 25% lower risk of all-cause mortality (wHR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.75-0.76]), with a similar association observed when excluding severe COVID-19 death. Sensitivity analysis revealed that vaccinated individuals consistently had a lower risk of death, regardless of the cause. Mortality was 29% lower within 6 months following COVID-19 vaccination (relative incidence, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.69-0.73]).

jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…Image
3) also importantly, “The study found no increase in the risk of deaths from cancer, heart disease, accidental injury or any other major category: in every case, vaccinated individuals had equal or lower rates of death.”
gavi.org/vaccineswork/m…
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jan 12
☢️THEY DON’T CARE ABOUT YOUR LIFE—E.P.A. to Stop Considering Lives Saved When Setting Rules on Air Pollution. the EPA plans to calculate only the cost to industry when setting pollution limits, and not the monetary value of saving human lives.

Gift🎁🔗
nytimes.com/2026/01/12/cli…Image
2) For decades, the Environmental Protection Agency has calculated the health benefits of reducing air pollution, using the cost estimates of avoided asthma attacks and premature deaths to justify clean-air rules.
Not anymore.
3) Under President Trump, the E.P.A. plans to stop tallying gains from the health benefits caused by curbing two of the most widespread deadly air pollutants, fine particulate matter and ozone, when regulating industry, according to internal agency emails and documents reviewed
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Oct 14, 2025
🧠DEMENTIA PREVENTION—Almost everyone needs to go out now and get the shingles vaccine ASAP. Don’t wait until age 50 for standard eligibility—ask your doctor for singles vax. MULTIPLE large studies worldwide now show that shingles vaccine strongly prevents dementia onset. Do it. Image
2) Both the RZV vaccine (Shingrix) shown in red, and the ZVL vaccine (purple line) against shingles prevented dementia.

nature.com/articles/s4159…Image
Image
3) In addition to shingles vaccine, the TDAP vaccine (against tetanus, diphtheria and pertussis), flu vaccine, and RSV vaccines all prevent dementia too. Get the shots to save your brain. 🧠

Gift 🎁 link 🔗
wapo.st/4700VJL
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Sep 22, 2025
⚠️TYLENOL & AUTISM—RFK Jr and Trump are wrong—the largest & best study in the world in 2.5 MILLION KIDS—found no increased autism risk with acetaminophen (aka paracetamol, Tylenol) use by the mother during pregnancy. A crude unadjusted analysis found only a preliminary 5% risk, but once you adjust for family by matching using sibling controls (who didn’t get autism), the even tiny 5% risk vaporizes to 0% 📉. (Fun fact: I used to do drug safety epidemiology and have been whistleblower against big pharma when their drugs were dangerous—so I know a few things about drug safety data). Thread 🧵.Image
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2) “To address unobserved confounding, matched full sibling pairs were also analyzed. Sibling control analyses found no evidence that acetaminophen use during pregnancy was associated with autism…”

jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…Image
3) “Conclusions and Relevance  Acetaminophen use during pregnancy was not associated with children’s risk of autism, ADHD, or intellectual disability in sibling control analysis. This suggests that associations observed in other models may have been attributable to familial confounding.”

jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…Image
Read 14 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 16, 2025
📍 THE 17 FIRED MEMBERS OF CDC’s VACCINE ADVISORY COMMITTEE (ACIP) speak out…

📍“As former ACIP members, we are deeply concerned that these destabilizing decisions, made without clear rationale, may roll back the achievements of US immunization policy, impact people’s access to lifesaving vaccines, and ultimately put US families at risk of dangerous and preventable illnesses.” 🔥

Full text:

Vaccines are one of the greatest global public health achievements. Vaccine recommendations have been critical to the global eradication of smallpox and the elimination of polio, measles, rubella, and congenital rubella syndrome in the US. They have also dramatically decreased cases of hepatitis, meningitis, mumps, pertussis (whooping cough), pneumonia, tetanus, and varicella (chickenpox), and prevented cancers caused by hepatitis B virus and human papillomaviruses.1 Recent scientific advancements enabled the accelerated development, production, and evaluation of COVID-19 vaccines, leveraging novel technologies that are estimated to have prevented approximately 1.6 million hospitalizations and 235 000 deaths in the US alone.2
For more than 60 years, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)—codified in the federal regulations (42 USC 217a: advisory councils or committees)—has served as a panel of experts that reviews the most up-to-date evidence on vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (eg, against respiratory syncytial virus [RSV]), providing sound recommendations to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) regarding how vaccines should be used. ACIP recommendations are the cornerstone of the immunization program in this country. First, they serve as guidance and are the national standard for the use of Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized and licensed vaccines, providing a unified and trusted approach to vaccinations for the diverse array of immunization providers across the US. Second, they ensure science-based and tested immunization schedules that are optimized for well-timed protection against serious diseases. Third, the recommendations affect insurance coverage and safeguard broad access for vaccines. Fourth, ACIP’s continued monitoring of disease epidemiology and scrutiny of vaccine safety inform timely updates to recommendations that have maintained the trust and protection of the population. This transparent and ongoing surveillance of vaccines is one of the most stringent around the world, historically making the deliberations and decisions of this committee a beacon for immunization programs globally, while also serving as the foundation for recommendations harmonized with leading medical organizations in the US.3,4
ACIP committee members have always been selected through a rigorous process based on their expertise in immunology, epidemiology, pediatrics, obstetrics, internal and family medicine, geriatrics, infectious diseases, and public health. Historically, committee members were chosen because they worked at hospitals, clinics, health departments, universities, and other organizations where they dedicated themselves to caring for patients, conducting research, and helping to prevent and treat infectious diseases. Members’ deep understanding of immunization issues ensured that vaccine policies were grounded in scientific evidence, aligned with the needs of economically, socially, and medically diverse US communities, and always considered the public value, trust, and acceptability of vaccines.
Despite recent suggestions to the contrary, health care providers and the US public trust ACIP. For the past 18 years, the National Immunization Survey has shown that 99 of every 100 children in the US have received at least some recommended vaccines by 2 years of age, consistent with acceptance of ACIP recommendations implemented by trusted clinicians (National Immunization Survey - Childof Healthy People 2030).…Image
2) Full text part 2:

This does not suggest the population is so distrustful that it warrants dismantling the process by which vaccines have been recommended. ACIP standard procedures have minimized the risk of alleged conflicts of interest and biases. For decades, members of ACIP have undergone a thorough application and review process to participate. Proposed members submitted letters of support from other known experts and peers, completed an interview process, underwent a background check, and disclosed financial interests that might be considered a conflict, including any professional or financial relationships of immediate family members. Historically, it has taken up to 2 years for nominees to be approved to join ACIP.
Once part of the committee, ACIP members spent significant time preparing for meetings, reviewing the scientific evidence, and chairing work groups that, along with many CDC public health officials, led to the final recommendations that were determined during public meetings, which also included opportunities for public comment. Recordings of these meetings, agendas, and presentations were publicly available. Additionally, members agreed to ongoing monitoring and disclosure throughout their tenure. For example, potential conflicts of interest were reviewed throughout their time on the committee. Statements about potential conflicts were required during each meeting and before each vote, and members recused themselves from voting if any conflicts were identified. These disclosures have also recently been posted on the CDC website for public scrutiny. ACIP was among the most stringent and transparent of the federal committees, and we hope those criteria will apply to any new members joining the committee.
The abrupt dismissal of the entire membership of the ACIP, along with its executive secretary, on June 9, 2025, the appointment of 8 new ACIP members just 2 days later, and the recent reduction of CDC staff dedicated to immunizations have left the US vaccine program critically weakened.5,6 These actions have stripped the program of the institutional knowledge and continuity that have been essential to its success over decades. Notably, the ACIP charter specifies that committee members serve overlapping terms to ensure continuity and avoid precisely the disruption that will now ensue. The termination of all members and its leadership in a single action undermines the committee’s capacity to operate effectively and efficiently, aside from raising questions about competence.
Compounding these concerns, recent changes to COVID-19 vaccine policy, made directly by the HHS secretary and released on social media, appear to have bypassed the standard, transparent, and evidence-based review process.7 Such actions reflect a troubling disregard for the scientific integrity that has historically guided US immunization strategy. The newly stated strategy to replace ACIP members with individuals who will “exercise independent judgment, refuse to serve as a rubber stamp, and foster a culture of critical inquiry” is already leading to warnings by academic and scientific institutions, professional organizations, and the public who for decades have known well that these sought-after qualities precisely characterized the now-dismissed members of the ACIP.5
3) Part 3:

As former ACIP members, we are deeply concerned that these destabilizing decisions, made without clear rationale, may roll back the achievements of US immunization policy, impact people’s access to lifesaving vaccines, and ultimately put US families at risk of dangerous and preventable illnesses. Vaccines and the anti-RSV monoclonal antibodies are lifesaving, and people in the US deserve to have recommendations and broad access to use them to prevent serious diseases. In this age of government efficiency, the US public needs to know that the routine vaccination of approximately 117 million children from 1994-2023 likely prevented around 508 million lifetime cases of illness, 32 million hospitalizations, and 1 129 000 deaths, at a net savings of $540 billion in direct costs and $2.7 trillion in societal costs.8Finally, as individuals, we remain committed to evidence-based vaccine policy, both through our ongoing work in immunization science, public health, and medical education, and by supporting future efforts to keep America healthy that uphold scientific rigor and the public’s trust.
Read 4 tweets

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