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Milhouse Van Houten 😀

16 Mar, 15 tweets, 7 min read

Ontario update.

#covid19ontario #COVID19 #covid19Canada

Ontario covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and testing.

Ontario covid-19 cases, deaths, and testing.

Ontario Fall/Winter season: May be able to declare a peak when average week-over-week growth reaches zero.

Weekly all-cause deaths and deaths with/from Covid-19 in Ontario, including % of deaths attributed to Covid-19. (Subject to reporting delay for all-cause deaths.)

Note: Covid-19 is often not a wholly distinct and separate cause of death as there are other medical conditions involved in many cases.

There are also cases in which it is not even a cause of death, but the individual had tested positive sometime prior to their death.

Ontario total weekly deaths Jan 2010-Nov 2020.

Covid-19 deaths per million by age cohort and for long-term care residents.

The 80+ age cohort accounts for 52% of all-cause deaths in Ontario and 68% of deaths from or with Covid-19, but only 4% of the population.

Daily hospitalizations and cumulative case hospitalization rate (cumulative reported hospitalizations divided by cumulative cases.)

The number of hospitalizations linked to covid-19 in Ontario relative to historical benchmark levels for influenza and pneumonia.

A note on hospitalization data: This may include those who have had a positive test result after being hospitalized for a different reason.

Ontario - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line). (Daily reported deaths divided by average daily cases over prior 28 days.)

The silver lining of mass PCR testing: a falling CFR.

Ontario – Cumulative case fatality rate (CFR). The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line). (Cumulative reported deaths divided by cumulative cases.)

Ontario – Case survival rates (= 100% - case fatality rate) by age.

(True survival rates based on IFR would be significantly higher.)

Sources:

data.ontario.ca/dataset/status…

publichealthontario.ca/en/data-and-an…

news.ontario.ca/en/release/566…

covid-19.ontario.ca/covid-19-epide…

covid-19.ontario.ca/data

www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.…

www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.…

www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…

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More from @Milhouse_Van_Ho

Milhouse Van Houten 😀

@Milhouse_Van_Ho

17 Mar

@DFisman

Interesting insights into the closed-minded thinking of Ontario Science Table (OST) members, via @DFisman.

From an anon source, here @DFisman is being asked whether we should be having a scientific discussion about lockdowns, masks, and the long-term plan.

@DFisman

In response even @DFisman admits that lockdowns are ineffective and have done significant damage to the economy, all without preventing people from needing the ICU.

@DFisman

Here @DFisman compares our current situation to the Spanish flu.

(Side note: no data suggesting that ICUs are/were under more pressure than in a normal year.)

Read 5 tweets

Milhouse Van Houten 😀

@Milhouse_Van_Ho

17 Mar

Greater Toronto update (thread).

#covid19 #covid19toronto #covid19ontario

City of Toronto cases, hospitalizations, deaths.

City of Toronto - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line).

Greater Toronto cases, hospitalizations, deaths.

Read 8 tweets

Milhouse Van Houten 😀

@Milhouse_Van_Ho

16 Mar

[UPDATED] I suspect there's something artificial about Ontario's case numbers because they no longer match hospitalization and death trends, nor comparable trends in neighbouring Québec.

Ontario's "third wave" may have been engineered through PCR case counts.

Thread:

Charts demonstrating covid seasonality.

Neighbouring provinces of Ontario and Québec both peaked at virtually the same time. However, cases trending up again in Ontario - but not in Québec.

On the contrary, hospitalizations in both provinces are still trending downward in unison.

Read 8 tweets

Milhouse Van Houten 😀

@Milhouse_Van_Ho

16 Mar

Mise à jour du Québec

#covid19Qc #covid19canada #COVID19

Nombre total de cas, de décès, et d’hospitalisations en cours liés à Covid-19 au Québec.

Nombre total de cas et de décès liés à Covid-19 au Québec.

Automne / hiver au Québec : On peut être en mesure de déclarer un pic quand croissance moyenne d'une semaine à l'autre s'approche de zéro.

Read 8 tweets

Milhouse Van Houten 😀

@Milhouse_Van_Ho

15 Mar

https://twitter.com/Milhouse_Van_Ho/status/1371469461979553797

Why might some communities be hesitant to accept a covid vaccine?

Why should we be worried about the (un)intended consequences of vaccine passports?

Are we reintroducing segregation?

Why does informed consent matter?

The Tuskegee Syphilis Study offers some insights (thread):

https://twitter.com/Milhouse_Van_Ho/status/1371469461979553797

The story begins in 1932 - a time when there was no known treatment for syphilis. In Macon County, Alabama, 600 black American men were enrolled in a project that sought to record the natural history of syphilis and the full progression of the disease.